Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Civil Society and Democracy: The Israeli Experience

Civil society has been considered pivotal to democracy, but the causes of its performance have remained controversial. According to one view the political context is a critical factor in shaping the contours of civil society. Another suggests that whether democracy prevails is contingent on society itself and the associations comprising it. In a test of these views it was assumed that if society prevails associations would vary by type. If the state is more important, then associations would be expected to score similarly on the democratic scale. It was also expected that variation among the types of performance would cut across group categories, reflecting general attributes of the polity. Data were derived from a survey conducted among voluntary associations in Israel (n = 360). Findings showed that (a) associations scored similarly on the democratic scale, (b) the scores for the democratic performance were not influenced by group category, and (c) the least performed function was integration.     

德国行政赔偿制度的特色与成因

德国行政赔偿制度有着不同于大陆法系国家和普通法系国家行政赔偿制度的特色,这种特色突出体现在行政赔偿基础的赔偿请求权和对行政赔偿案件进行救济的赔偿审理制度两个方面。德国行政赔偿制度的特色是由在漫长的历史过程中所形成的思想因素、制度因素和文化因素造就而成。     

人大代表对公民意识的影响

民主政治与公民意识关联互动,在这种互动中,精英分子有着重要的影响。在人民代表大会制度中,人大代表理应是民主政治的精英分子,他们的意识和行为对公民意识的影响不容忽视,因此要提高人大代表的素质,强化这种影响。     

LLSM在群体判断中的推广和应用

首先分析了对数最小二乘排序法的特点,说明它是一种值得重视的好方法;并进一步阐述了这一方法的基本原理,着重地对群体判断下求加权的综合排序向量的方法进行了严密的数学推导;提出了在加权的综合排序中权重系数确定的新見解,并举例子以解释。     

Children's gender- and age-based categorization in similarity and induction tasks

The present studies examined children's and adults' preferences for gender- or age-based categorization using similarity and inductive inference tasks. Four-year-olds, 6-year-olds, and adults looked at pictures of people and decided which of two was more like a target (similarity condition) or which shared a novel age- or gender-related property with the target (inference condition). Age or gender-based matches were possible. The results are consistent with previous findings that gender-based classification decreases with age. However, they also demonstrate that children use gender more for judging similarity than for making inferences about novel properties. Distinct patterns emerge from the two tasks: 6-year-olds and adults in both conditions categorize more by age than gender; 4-year-olds categorize by gender more than age in the similarity task, but by age more in the induction task. Only adults differentiated by property in the inference condition. These findings suggest that the salience of gender categories cannot entirely be attributed to their inductive potential. Gender has a salience beyond what would be predicted by its power for directing novel generalizations.     

西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断研究

本研究采用自编问卷就西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断情况进行了调查。结果表明:(1)大部分西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断呈一定的消极趋向;(2)西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断在农业与农民问题、民族交往问题、进城民工的权益保障问题上存在显著的地域差异,在工人下岗问题、腐败与经济犯罪问题上存在显著的职业差异,在环境问题上存在显著的文化程度差异。     

土木工程类复合型执业人才培养的研究与实践

根据复合型执业人才培养模式的要求,对土木工程专业理论课程教学内容进行合并、增删、优化组合;在实践教学环节方面,安排大四学生在施工现场实践近1年,由项目经理、工程监理和发包方驻地工程师进行综合指导。理论与实践紧密结合的复合型执业人才培养的改革实践获得了极好的效果。     

审视毛泽东思维

毛泽东一生丰功伟业 ,精神遗产无比宏富 ,而其科学思维则如奇葩一朵 ,光芒四射 ,全面贯穿于毛泽东思想的各个领域。毛泽东科学思维可以概括为“三大核心内容、十大特点、三块基石”。“三大核心内容”即 :民族独立和解放 ;社会主义制度的建立 ;社会主义道路的探索。“十大特点”即破旧立新 ,富于创造 ;求真务实 ,实事求是 ;把握关键 ;提纲契领 ;人民本体 ,服务群众 ;思想占领 ,攻心至上 ;形象生动 ,形式丰富 ;思维开放 ,系统把握 ;逆向思维 ,出其不意 ;辩证统一 ,一分为二 ;超前开拓 ,高瞻远瞩。“三块基石”即 :革命与战争的时代主题 ;中国传统文化的熏陶 ;丰硕的哲学底蕴。     

传统山水画的法度与审美

传统山水画是祖国传统艺术发展的一座历史丰碑 ,它是中华民族给人类创造的一笔宝贵的艺术财富。它之所以如此的辉煌 ,是与古人对山水画自然美的认识及其理论是分不开的。通过对传统山水画的构图、布局以及透视基本规律的综合分析 ,对传统山水画的理论法度、画法技巧与审美进行了初步探讨。