论仲调结合在“一带一路”商事纠纷解决中的运用

根据“一带一路”商事纠纷的显著特征,其解纷机制应满足形式灵活多元、合意性较强、跨国执行便利、专业水平高等需求。仲调结合作为一种复合型纠纷解决方式,与诉讼、商事仲裁、商事调解相比所具有的优势更能满足以上需求。目前,仲调结合主要存在“先调解后仲裁”与“先仲裁后调解”两种实践模式。为了优化仲调结合在“一带一路”商事纠纷解决中的运用,应丰富仲调结合形式与设置具体操作规则,加强仲调结合组织建设与解纷人才培育,充分赋予当事人选择权以克服程序质疑,健全错误仲调结合结果的救济机制,订立多边条约与承认互惠关系以优化跨国执行等。     

基于超总体模型的设计效应分解

本文基于超总体模型研究抽样调查中设计效应的计算问题。首先以随机效应模型为基础，明确了简单随机、二阶段、不等概率和分层抽样对应的超总体模型，进而通过所给模型推导出分层、类集、加权单因素设计效应的计算公式和多因素组合的设计效应计算公式并给出了对应估计量，公式表明：多因素同时存在的组合设计效应等于对应单因素设计效应的乘积。最后，对设计效应的理论值、估计值和真实值之间的关系进行了蒙特卡洛仿真，并利用相对偏倚、相对均方误进行了评价。本文的研究，对复杂抽样设计中正确计算、使用设计效应具有指导意义。     

1906-1908年的郑孝胥与预备立宪公会

考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素，采用在“四阶段法”运量预测基础上改进而成的“三阶段法”进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测，然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担，最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例，采用“三阶段法”预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。     

我国海上油田钻井完井投资测算方法研究

本文分析了我国海上油田钻井完井投资测算的现有方法,针对存在的问题和不足,从内生变量的选择、相关系数、变量的影响程度等方面进行分析研究,提出以作业周期、井深、水深三个因素进行测算的新方法。     

工业革命时期英国的结社法研究

英国的结社法是政府为限制工人结社而制定的法律。在18世纪之前,英国并没有特别针对结社的立法,多半是在一些劳工法令中有限制劳工结社的条款。1720年英国通过了第一个结社法,此后历经数次修正。工业革命时期英国的结社法对于工人结社以及工会运动的发展起到了很大的阻碍作用。1871年,结社法不复存在而代之以工会法,工会取得合法地位,工会运动得到了一定发展。     

Comparison of the effectiveness of forecasts obtained by means of selected probability functions with respect to forecast error distributions

The forecasting of sales in a company is one of the crucial challenges that must be faced. Nowadays, there is a large spectrum of methods that enable making reliable forecasts. However, sometimes the nature of time series excludes many well-known and widely used forecasting methods (e.g., econometric models). Therefore, the authors decided to forecast on the basis of a seasonally adjusted median of selected probability distributions. The obtained forecasts were verified by means of distributions of the Theil U² coefficient and unbiasedness coefficient.     

Multiperiod Forecasts of Interest Rates

The accuracy of forecasts of interest rates over different forecast horizons and time periods is examined. The results indicate a deterioration in “absolute” forecast accuracy measured by the mean absolute error and the root mean squared error but no decrease in “relative” accuracy measured by the Theil coefficient with an increase in the forecast span. The results also indicate a decline in accuracy in periods of volatile interest rates. Support is found for the hypothesis that the ratio of the variability of predicted changes to that of actual changes falls with an increase in the forecast horizon.     

On the Specification of Propensity Scores,With Applications to the Analysis of Trade Policies

A vector autoregression is fit to recent U.S. data on wheat prices, wheat export sales, wheat export shipments, and exchange rates. Forecast error decompositions and out-of-sample forecasts indicate that exchange rates have little influence on wheat sales and shipments.     

面向动态完全竞争构建多维协同组合战略

现有战略管理理论以不完全竞争市场为前提条件,因而越来越难以应对日益激烈的超竞争环境.有甚于此,笔者的研究发现,在技术进步和收入增长效应足够大的情况下,传统上认定不会出现完全竞争的差别产品最终也会出现每个企业都按边际成本定价的动态完全竞争.面向动态完全竞争的战略管理的基本任务随之转为运用介观视野去发现并实施具备多维协同组合特性的新的商务模式,同时做到差异准确、成本领先、反应敏捷和分享得力.     

Combining Economic Forecasts

A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts of GNP from four major econometric models. The methods include one in which forecasting errors are jointly normally distributed and several variants of this model as well as some simpler procedures and a Bayesian approach with a prior distribution based on exchangeability of forecasters. The results indicate that a simple average, the normal model with an independence assumption, and the Bayesian model perform better than the other approaches that are studied here.