汉语词缀理论及个案的新审视 ——评《中古汉语词缀考辨》

词缀是汉语史研究中的热点问题,也是争议最大的问题之一。其争议主要在两个方面：一是概念内涵和判断标准,二是 具体个案的判定。《中古汉语词缀考辨》正是从两个争议焦点着眼,完成了对汉语词缀研究核心问题的重新审视。     

我国社区矫正工作社会化模式的建构——基于社区矫正工作目标的分析

社区矫正是社会化的刑罚执行方式,但从实践运作看,我国社区矫正的社会化程度依然不够,没有最大效度地达到社区矫正的目标.本文在对社区矫正工作目标进行分析的基础上,提出了我国社区矫正工作的社会化模式:基于责任共担的社区服刑环境建设、基于社会工作方法的个案矫正模式、基于社会人力资源的社会帮教工作.     

A new nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach using error correction models

In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices.     

Effects of some design factors on the distribution of similarity indices in cluster analysis

This article investigates the effects of number of clusters, cluster size, and correction for chance agreement on the distribution of two similarity indices, namely, Jaccard and Rand indices. Skewness and kurtosis are calculated for the two indices and their corrected forms then compared with those of the normal distribution. Three clustering algorithms are implemented: complete linkage, Ward, and K-means. Data were randomly generated from bivariate normal distributions with specified means and variance covariance matrices. Three-way ANOVA is performed to assess the significance of the design factors using skewness and kurtosis of the indices as responses. Test statistics for testing skewness and kurtosis and observed power are calculated. Simulation results showed that independent of the clustering algorithms or the similarity indices used, the interaction effect cluster size x number of clusters and the main effects of cluster size and number of clusters were found always significant for skewness and kurtosis. The three way interaction of cluster size x correction x number of clusters was significant for skewness of Rand and Jaccard indices using all clustering algorithms, but was not significant using Ward's method for both Rand and Jaccard indices, while significant for Jaccard only using complete linkage and K-means algorithms. The correction for chance agreement was significant for skewness and kurtosis using Rand and Jaccard indices when complete linkage method is used. Hence, such design factors must be taken into consideration when studying distribution of such indices.     

广东对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

利用多种计量分析工具,从总量和增长效应的角度研究了广东进出口与GDP增长间的关系。研究发现:从长期来说,进口、出口与GDP存在唯一稳定关系,出口较进口对经济增长有更大的促进作用;从短期来说,进口增长、出口增长都是GDP增长的Granger原因,出口增长同时也是进口增长的Granger原因,进口增长、出口增长都带动了经济增长,而且进口增长比出口增长与经济增长有更稳定、更紧密的联系     

社区矫正心理干预队伍建设探索

社区矫正心理干预队伍建设是促进社区矫正工作快速高效发展的重要议题之一。社区矫正心理干预队伍应具有自己独特的素质要求,在构成上应基于现有的社区矫正工作队伍结构,由司法所工作人员、相关社会团体和社会志愿者组成,对三者在心理干预工作中的角色和作用应予以明确。     

青少年犯罪问题治理中社区矫正较之司法矫正的优势分析

在当前我国青少年犯罪问题的治理中,传统的司法矫正模式已不能完全适应社会发展的现状和趋势,而社区矫正针对青少年自身及其犯罪原因的特殊性,采用更为科学、更为人性化的矫正方式,能够对青少年犯罪问题发挥更为有效的治理功能,具有传统司法矫正模式不可比拟的优势。     

矫治社会工作介入我国社区矫正的初探

矫治社会工作是一项专为罪犯或具有犯罪危险性的违法人员开展的社会福利服务,在我国很少有机会介入罪犯的改造,而社区矫正地开展恰好为我国矫治社会工作的专业化和职业化发展提供了前所未有的机遇和空间。     

汇率变动对通货膨胀影响的实证分析

文章通过研究人民币名义有效汇率与消费物价指数之间的协整关系,来分析汇率对物价水平的影响程度,进而研究汇率因素在通货膨胀形成的过程中起到的作用。文章采用了协整理论和向量误差修正模型等经济计量方法,分析的结果表明汇率与物价水平存在着长期的反方向变化趋势,因此不贬值的汇率政策是影响物价下跌的一个因素,但并非是主要因素。     

Bias correction and improved residuals for non-exponential family nonlinear models

In this paper we derive general formulae for the biases to order n ^?1 of the parameter estimates in a general class of nonlinear regression models, where n is the sample size. The formulae are related to those of Cordeiro and McCullagh (1991) and Paula (1992) and may be viewed as extensions of their results, Correction factors are derived for the score and deviance component residuals in these models. The practical use of such corrections is illustrated for the log-gamma model.