Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

婚姻状态对老年人死亡概率的影响研究--基于CLHLS队列数据的实证分析

文章基于 CLHLS 队列数据,运用统计分析及经验论证,解析出婚姻状态影响老年人死亡概率的作用机理,即在婚状态以其“保护效应”减小老年人患病的机率,进而减小其死亡概率;相反,不在婚状态的“损害效应”会增加老年人患病的机率,进而增加其死亡的概率。在所得结论基础上,为促进老年健康和应对养老挑战,针对老年人婚姻问题提出了相关政策建议。     

对保障措施制度的法经济学分析

保障措施是一项贸易保护手段,它服从于各国调整和发展本国经济的需要,其目的在于防止本国产业受到损害。尝试运用法经济学的分析方法,对实施该项措施后产生的后果与影响进行初步的考察。     

论刑法中的占有——《最高人民法院公报》相关案例的回顾与评析

财物是否是遗忘物,不能根据财物的民法属性予以判断,而是应该考察案件的具体情况,结合财物本身的性质、放置的地点、时间等各种要素,根据人们的日常生活观念予以判断.委托物如果是封缄物,其占有归属不能仅仅根据自然事实,认为属于受托人,而应该注重封缄的目的性,认为占有属于委托人,无论受托人占有内容物还是整体物,都构成盗窃罪.盗窃罪以非法占有目的为必要,其内容为排除他人占有,并且按照财物的经济用途或者可能用途利用他人的财物.     

矿岩料层辊压粉碎机理的分析

本文对高压辊作用下料层的破损过程,颗粒的受力状态和破损形态进行了探讨,并对辊压粉碎的比功耗进行了测定,提出了高压辊磨机工作的四个子过程,探讨了高压辊磨机粉碎的机理。     

教育行政赔偿制度研究——以海峡两岸的教育行政赔偿为视角

海峡两岸在教育行政赔偿问题上存在一些区别,通过案例分析和两岸相关法律的比较,如赔偿法规、行政侵权归责原则、教育赔偿主体、赔偿程序等的比较,从中可得到一些启示,对健全和完善我国相关法律法规有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。     

浅论环境犯罪危险犯

环境犯罪危险犯从类型上来看，大致可以分为两类：一类是具体危险犯和抽象危险犯，一类是故意危险犯和过失危险犯。当前，西方发达国家多已对环境犯罪危险犯有了完备的刑事立法，现代的环境立法价值取向的转变以及环境犯罪的特点决定了确立环境犯罪危险犯具有必要性，因此，我国也应尽早对环境犯罪危险犯进行刑事立法。     

An Exponential Model for Damage Accumulation

In this article, we present a general model for predicting the fatigue behavior for any stress level and amplitude using the exponential model. Based on the Wöhler field for fixed stress level, a compatibility functional equation enables us to derive the general model with eight parameters. The problem of parameter estimation is then discussed and some methods are described. Some examples are finally presented to illustrate the derived model and the proposed methods of estimation.     

公有公共设施致害的国家赔偿责任研究

由于社会上公有公共设施致害事件频发,公有公共设施致害的法律问题引起了理论界的关注。本文主要从公有公共设施致害的归责原则、赔偿义务机关和赔偿方式三个方面,对公有公共设施致害的赔偿责任问题进行了探讨,并提出了理论方面的主张。     

Forecasting Materials Damage from Air Pollution

Forecasts of materials damage from air pollution require (a) knowledge of a “damage function,” (b) an estimate of the exposure of materials to pollutants and other factors that enter into the dose relationship, and (c) the quantity and characteristics of the exposed materials. Uncertainty about any of these factors can lead to unacceptable uncertainty or bias in damage forecasts. Particular attention is given to the influence of the spatial units used to derive forecasts of materials damage. Environmental corrosion can vary significantly over relatively small geographic areas; accordingly, the choice of spatial unit can have an impact on forecasts of damage. The environmental factors that influence materials damage may not be independent over the time of exposure. There appears to be some evidence, for example, that SO₂ is not independent of time of wetness, both factors in metal corrosion.