A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

中国软件企业进入国际市场之研究

进入 90年代以来 ,以美国企业为代表的软件制造行业获得了突飞猛进的发展 ,国际软件市场空前巨大 ,充满了机会和挑战。对于在软件行业中寻求生存与发展的企业来说 ,走向国际市场是一个必然的趋势。中国的软件企业要走向成功 ,必须具备两个要素 :一是拥有能够在国际市场拿到订单的市场营销队伍 ;二是拥有能够与国际客户进行沟通的项目经理队伍 ,并在公司的发展中 ,寻求未来在海外上市的机会     

论明清之际经济架构中的异质因素

明代后期社会经济架构内呈现出异动迹象。不仅在城镇中有了无人身依附关系的自由劳动力,而且出现在财宫原始积累上能发挥独特作用的产业资本。这些对于封建经济而言的“异质”,在清代初期并未消失,反而有所滋长,无论于手工生产与商贸活动,还是在资本运作渠道的拓展上,均有所增强,并清晰地显露出资本主义萌芽状态的经营性质。     

论职工持股制度的深化与发展

农村包产到户,城市职工持股”是中国经济体制改革的两种基本模式。在企业产权制度改革中,应大力发展职工持股制度,明确发展思路与重点,规范职工持股制度的运作与管理。     

上海市房屋拆迁立法轨迹及特点

上海市房屋拆迁立法是随国家政治、经济体制的改革而发展变化的 ,对上海房屋拆迁立法的历史回顾及其特点分析 ,可从中思考修改房屋拆迁立法发展的方向 ,并提出有关立法建议。     

关于中国地主经济封建社会的产生及其发展迟缓问题--重读王亚南关于中国社会经济史著作的笔记

封建社会可以分为领主经济和地主经济两个阶段.中国封建社会历时比西欧长得多,因为中国的地主经济阶段比西欧长得多.这就是中国封建社会发展迟缓问题的实质.西欧进入地主经济阶段和在农村中产生资本主义是同时的.中国进入地主经济封建社会,是由于要突破农村公社--井田制--对生产力发展的束缚,因而以秦国的商鞅变法和秦统一天下为契机,在经济上废井田、开阡陌、土地民得以买卖,变领主经济为地主经济,在政治上废封建、置郡县,变贵族政治为官僚政治.地主经济这一经济基础及由其产生的三位一体公式、官僚政治及其支柱科举制度这一政治上层建筑、儒家学说这一思想上层建筑、被科举制度打乱的阶级关系,即四位一体公式等,使中国地主经济封建制度得以延长,资本主义产生困难.     

中国近世以来对外开放的历史轨迹及其启示

自近世以来,中国对外开放经由两次鸦片战争期间的被动不适、洋务运动至民国末年的主动适应直至新中国的自主经略,其间先后出现半殖民地化的对外开放格局和全方位、多层次、宽领域的对外开放格局;新中国自主经略对外开放的进程自20世纪70年代末起相继实现三次历史性飞跃。贯穿于近世以来中国对外开放过程的主题一直是中华民族实现伟大复兴、自立于世界民族之林的追求;对外开放历程之于来者,启示价值颇丰。     

Role of informal sector recycling in waste management in developing countries

Many thousands of people in developing country cities depend on recycling materials from waste for their livelihoods. With the focus of the Millennium Development Goals on poverty reduction, and of waste strategies on improving recycling rates, one of the major challenges in solid waste management in developing countries is how best to work with this informal sector to improve their livelihoods, working conditions and efficiency in recycling.The general characteristics of informal recycling are reviewed, highlighting both positive and negative aspects. Despite the health and social problems associated with informal recycling, it provides significant economic benefits that need to be retained. Experience shows that it can be highly counterproductive to establish new formal waste recycling systems without taking into account informal systems that already exist. The preferred option is to integrate the informal sector into waste management planning, building on their practices and experience, while working to improve efficiency and the living and working conditions of those involved. Issues associated with integrating informal recycling into the formal waste management sector are discussed.     

关于“国家垄断资本主义”的定义及其概念的解释

课本《马克思主义原理》对“国家垄断资本主义”的定义过于简单化,使这一概念带有相当程度的模糊性,在教学活动中,往往造成学生思维脱节、思路中断,难以全面理解其根本性质。教师讲受这一概念时,应作详细解释,并给出较为全面的定义,以利于学生认清国家垄断资本主义的本质。     

Weber Was Right: Death,Taxes, Working Capital,and the Excessive Propensity for Accumulation

It turns out that Max Weber was on to something when he suggested that it was not natural or automatic that wealthy individuals invest their capital rather than keep it or spend it on themselves. Patterns of economic growth and capital investment in the United States over the last century indicate that in general some inducement or pressure is necessary to convince those who control money to risk it rather than hoard it.