Horwitz's rule, transforming both sides and the design of experiments for mechanistic models

Summary. The paper develops methods for the design of experiments for mechanistic models when the response must be transformed to achieve symmetry and constant variance. The power transformation that is used is partially justified by a rule in analytical chemistry. Because of the nature of the relationship between the response and the mechanistic model, it is necessary to transform both sides of the model. Expressions are given for the parameter sensitivities in the transformed model and examples are given of optimum designs, not only for single-response models, but also for experiments in which multivariate responses are measured and for experiments in which the model is defined by a set of differential equations which cannot be solved analytically. The extension to designs for checking models is discussed.     

中国FDI进入模式的影响因素

本文综合交易费用理论和谈判力量理论分析框架,探讨了FDI进入中国市场模式(合资／独资)的影响因素。应用两分Logit模型进行实证分析,结果显示区位因素、来源地因素、投资项目的经营期限以及投资规模都对FDI进入中国市场模式产生了重要的影响,而产业因素的影响则统计不显著。     

Small area estimation strategies for large population surveys: a comparison of design and model-based methods

Small area estimation (SAE) concerns with how to reliably estimate population quantities of interest when some areas or domains have very limited samples. This is an important issue in large population surveys, because the geographical areas or groups with only small samples or even no samples are often of interest to researchers and policy-makers. For example, large population health surveys, such as Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System and Ohio Mecaid Assessment Survey (OMAS), are regularly conducted for monitoring insurance coverage and healthcare utilization. Classic approaches usually provide accurate estimators at the state level or large geographical region level, but they fail to provide reliable estimators for many rural counties where the samples are sparse. Moreover, a systematic evaluation of the performances of the SAE methods in real-world setting is lacking in the literature. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with constraints on the parameter space and show that it provides superior estimators for county-level adult uninsured rates in Ohio based on the 2012 OMAS data. Furthermore, we perform extensive simulation studies to compare our methods with a collection of common SAE strategies, including direct estimators, synthetic estimators, composite estimators, and Datta GS, Ghosh M, Steorts R, Maples J.'s [Bayesian benchmarking with applications to small area estimation. Test 2011;20(3):574–588] Bayesian hierarchical model-based estimators. To set a fair basis for comparison, we generate our simulation data with characteristics mimicking the real OMAS data, so that neither model-based nor design-based strategies use the true model specification. The estimators based on our proposed model are shown to outperform other estimators for small areas in both simulation study and real data analysis.     

户籍类型与城乡居民医疗服务利用 ——基于Andersen模型的经验分析

本文利用中国社会科学院经济研究所2018年城乡居民入户调查数据,从户籍改革角度分析户口类型改变对城乡居民医疗服务利用的影响。研究发现:与户口类型未发生改变的城乡居民相比,户口类型发生过改变(农转非)的城乡居民门急诊服务利用的可能性更高,住院医疗服务支出水平更低。从户籍改革与参保类型交互效应看,相对于户口类型未发生过改变的居民医保参保人群,户口类型发生改变(农转非)会显著提高居民医保参保人群门急诊服务利用,同时降低其住院服务利用。进一步采用PSM方法进行稳健性检验,户籍改革对提高城乡居民门急诊服务利用,降低住院医疗服务利用的结论依然成立。此外,本文还发现,直接结算提高了城乡居民门急诊和住院的就诊概率;健康自评状况越差,门急诊和住院医疗服务利用可能性越高,门急诊医疗支出、住院医疗支出和跨省异地就医支出也越高。本文认为,相对于推行基层分级诊疗制度,以户籍改革推动农村居民自由流入医疗资源更丰富的城镇地区,改革基层卫生院制度,以及改变基层医疗服务提供激励机制,可能更有助于改善农村居民健康状况。     

外商直接投资与我国环境安全研究综述

笔者回顾了近年来关于外商直接投资与我国生态环境关系的研究,采用贸易环境效应分析基本框架,将外商直接投资对环境的影响分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和政策效应四个方面,而不是采用“污染避难所”和“污染光环”等单因素分析方法,从而更加全面地探讨了两者之间的复杂关系。最后指出,如何协调统一外商直接投资与东道国生态环境发展目标已成为未来该领域的主要研究方向。     

外商直接投资、市场集中与福利效应分析——以我国零售产业为例

在全球经济一体化的背景下,产业资本的跨国流动呈现日益加速的趋势。实证研究显示:外商直接投资与发展中东道国目标产业市场集中度之间存在着明显的正相关关系。成本非对称的古诺竞争均衡表明:跨国公司的成本优势使其产量和市场份额相对较大,市场份额的扩大使其价格偏离帕累托最优水平的程度越大即市场势力增强,造成的社会福利损失也越大。以此为理论基础,对跨国公司进入下我国零售产业的市场集中效应进行了实证检验。     

外商直接投资对我国就业的影响

利用外商直接投资(FDI)是我国政府增加和扩大就业的政策措施之一。外商直接投资在为我国带来资金和技术的同时,也对我国就业产生不可忽视的影响。我国应该继续有效地调整外商投资方式和投资结构,将外资引向劳动密集型产业。同时应注意培养适应型技术人才,建立健全外商投资的各项法律法规,外商直接投资才能更好地发挥促进我国经济发展和吸纳劳动力的作用,以此减少我国就业压力,提高就业质量,促进国民经济持续、稳定、健康发展。     

WTO协议在我国法院的适用

加入WTO给我们提供了加速发展的机遇,同时也给我们提出了巨大的挑战。为了最大限度地利用好WTO这把“双刃剑”,我们必须首先解决如何执行和实施WTO规则体系的问题。本文拟对WTO协议在国内法院的直接适用问题进行探讨,通过对WTO协议理论和各成员方有关法律和司法实践的分析得出这样一个结论,即WTO协议在我国法院不具有直接效力,还不能得到直接适用。     

从FDI的走势看中国未来引资政策的选择

近十几年来,外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment)由南向北移动、主要集中在以上海为龙头的长江三角洲地带,而不是从东向西移动,从而使中国东西部差距进一步拉大。根据邓宁的国际生产折衷理论,外商在中国的直接投资走向,将会带来中国在未来二十年发展机遇期的区位优势、区域差距和失业等问题。中国在招商引资中实行区域性优惠政策是不明智的,客观结果事与愿违,政策措施达不到预期效果。     

直接言词原则与刑事证人出庭作证问题研究

现代诉讼制度要求刑事案件的审理必须贯彻直接言词原则以便于查明案件事实,而直接言词原则要求刑事证人必须出庭作证;我国相关刑事立法与司法实务中还存在着诸多的问题,在刑事审判实务中检察机关提供证人证言笔录成为证人作证的常态;在刑事立法上建立有效的证人作证传唤制度、完善对证人拒绝出庭作证的强制性措施和制裁条款的规定等成为目前亟需解决的问题。