Incomes after Job‐loss in the United States: From Programme Rules to Panel Data

Welfare state studies are usually motivated by one or both of two concerns: programme effects on the incidence of poverty, and the possibility of perverse incentive effects. Most research has been comparative, using cross‐national indicators from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development and other international organizations. That research often contrasts the generosity of programmes in a number of European countries and the lack of it in the USA. Focusing on income transfers after job‐loss, in this article we critically examine the comparative evidence on US welfare state generosity and then use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to estimate what happens to job‐losers' incomes. The comparative analysis suggests conclusions more nuanced than found in much of the literature. The PSID analysis shows how the income effects of job‐loss vary across job‐losers and suggests that the role of unemployment compensation programmes in supporting incomes may be overstated.     

Perception of Earthquake Risk in Taiwan: Effects of Gender and Past Earthquake Experience

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer‐assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two‐factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, “personal impact,” encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, “controllability,” encompassed a sense of efficacy of self‐protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.     

社会保险经办服务体系改革：机构定位与政策建议

以探讨构建服务型政府形势下社保经办服务体系改革思路为研究目的。通过实证分析方法,分析了当前社保经办服务建设能力不足和管理体制散乱的突出问题;借鉴国际经验,提出加强顶层设计,结合事业单位分类改革,重塑社保公共服务体系的思路。     

城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测研究

随着人口老龄化进程的加剧。我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收支出现了巨大缺口并呈现逐步扩大的趋势,导致基金支付能力持续下降。本文应用社会保障精算方法与技术,以社会养老保险现行政策为导向。引入2005年颁布的《国务院关于完善企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》中新养老金计发办法的经济参数。构建城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收入与基金支出测算模型,其中以2006年新政策实施年为时间界限。分别构建“老人”、2006年前退休的“中人”（“老中人”）、2006年后退休的“中人”（“新中人”）、“新人”四类群体的基本养老保险基金支出洲算模型。从而推导出城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测精算模型。以期对养老保险基金失衡风险和支竹能力危机进行及时预测。并为社会养老保险政策调整和制度完善提供量化依据。     

劳动力缺失背景下新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素研究

新型农村养老保险试点工作的全面开展、制度优化完善必须充分考虑农村现实状况和农民实际需求,本文以劳动力缺失、老龄化加剧、家庭养老功能弱化为背景,对陕西省西安市10个涉农区县开展实地调查,通过问卷设计与数据收集,获取1156个有效样本,综合运用描述性统计、相关分析和二分类、多分类逻辑回归分析方法,从参保意愿和支付能力的二维视角实证研究新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素,结果表明：养老风险意识、新农保政策了解程度、新农保政策效果和缴费原则认可程度、耕地面积、期望养老金额是新农保参保意愿的显著影响因素,而表征经济状况的农民家庭年总收入、年基本支出与新农保支付能力之间具有显著的因果关系。     

哈萨克斯坦医疗保险制度改革问题研究

医疗保险制度改革是哈萨克斯坦医疗改革的重要组成部分。独立以后,在全民免费医疗无法维持的情况下,哈萨克斯坦政府先后实施了强制医疗保险制度和自愿医疗保险制度。然而,这两种医疗保险制度的运行效果远远没有达到政府和民众的预期。目前,哈萨克斯坦又出现了恢复强制医疗保险制度的倾向。纵观哈萨克斯坦医疗保险制度的发展过程,可以认为,这种改革缺乏持续性的政策和明确的目标。另外,如何妥善解决社会公平和效率之间的关系,以及转变民众的医疗卫生观念,是未来哈萨克斯坦医疗保险改革亟待解决的深层问题。     

投保人信赖利益保护问题

就如何维护投保人的信赖利益这一问题,理论上存在三种方案,即扩大合同成立的可能性、认定存在先合同义务以及扩大保险人的侵权责任范围.通过合同法或侵权法的一般原则来保护投保人的信赖利益均有可能侵蚀合同自由原则.相对而言,先合同义务理论实际上是一种理性平衡裁判术,在类型化的限制之下,既可维护合同自由,又可实现个案正义.     

论灾害伦理研究中的若干基本问题

灾害是人类无从避免而又必须面对的突发现象。它使人类诸多道德矛盾在瞬间交织爆发,也因而成为进行伦理学研究的最佳场域。灾害伦理研究中的基本问题有：灾害成因的伦理解释;灾害降临的伦理应对;灾害救助的伦理维度;灾害抚慰的伦理实施等。     

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

国际视角下中国地震保险基金制度构建探析

通过对美国加州、日本和新西兰地震保险基金制度的分析,探索一种能使我国保险业在抗震救灾中发挥重要作用的路径.主张建立起政府主导的地震保险基金,作为地震风险市场化、社会化的资源整合平台,充当我国地震保险的再保险人,实现地震风险的多层次分担,确保地震一旦发生,灾区人民能够通过保险渠道获取稳定的救济和灾后重建资金,从而减轻国家财政负担.