Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

Local spatial data infrastructure, Trujillo-Peru

The development of a Municipal Information System, or currently better known as a local spatial data infrastructure, is considered complex due to the required inter-institutional relationships. In many developing countries Geographical Information Systems (GISs) are introduced but the benefits are modest as no changes take place in technical and organisational structure of organisations. Digital databases and computer-aided design (CAD) maps are mushrooming in great variety within different private and public institutions, municipal organisations and even within single departments and with structures similar to the paper period and thus operating on a stand-alone basis.Many national mapping agencies are not able to provide large-scale digital urban base maps, while the absence or low quality of cadastres makes those basic core data sets unavailable or inaccessible. The result is that duplication and incompatible data are frequently observed and also donor-driven stand-alone projects have a limited impact through the lack of institutional embedding and are not able to mature from the project to the institutional level. However, a positive sign is that there is an increasing awareness among data producers and consumers that investments in the development of digital data sets should be combined to reduce costs and increase benefits from especially GIS, and information and communication technology (ICT) in general.Within Trujillo a long-term vision was developed to make full use of ICT and GIS to modernise all operations of the Municipality to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of its tasks. However, large investments are not feasible due to the very limited municipal budgets. To guarantee the support of the municipal council, short-term results are required. This paper describes three ‘products’ as part of the vision to develop through a step-by-step approach a local spatial data infrastructure for Trujillo.The three, rather different, products are:

1. fiscal cadastre, to increase municipal revenues through property taxation;

2. an ‘environmental atlas’ based on a compatible spatial and attribute data sets from a variety of organisations; and

3. a municipal website with interactive GIS and meta data information.

The paper concludes with some comments on the institutional and political requirements for the successful development of a local spatial data infrastructure and stresses that such an infrastructure is not a product but an incremental development process that will progress only in case such a process is simple, cost effective, user-friendly, and flexible with clear products.Political interest and institutional stability and genuine interest for inter-institutional cooperation will add much to the success of this process.     

浅谈生态伦理及其教育问题

生态道德教育是一个普遍性的社会伦理问题。生态危机的特征 ,生物共同体的联系以及我国生态环境的现状 ,都客观地要求我们必须注重人与自然界的和谐发展 ,加强全民性的生态道德教育。     

开展我国环境审计的新思考

在我国,环境审计对于国家审计、内部审计和民间审计来说都是一个新内容。作为环境管理系统的重要组成部分,环境审计具有重大的意义。因此,建立健全环境审计制度,采取切实可行的措施,是环境管理和环境审计的重要任务。     

评货物所有权移转之立法例——兼论各国立法协调之可能性

货物所有权移转的时间问题 ,是货物买卖中的一个最为重要也是最为敏感的问题。本文采用比较法的研究方法 ,在分析与评价关于货物所有权移转的主要立法例的基础上 ,探讨各国立法协调之可能性。本文认为 ,交付主义为最佳选择模式 ;尽管关于货物所有权移转的时间采取的立法例不尽相同 ,但这绝对不意味着没有协调的可能性。就实际情况而言 ,各国或地区的有关立法对此问题的规定正在走向趋同 ,即采用交付主义或向交付主义靠拢。各国或地区立法之所以具有协调的可能性 ,这是由于当代社会经济的国际化、一体化的特点所决定的     

环境会计信息披露的有关问题

企业作为环境污染的主要肇事者, 理应承担起治理环境污染的责任, 由此就会产生相应的环境支出和环境收益, 并因而影响企业的财务状况和经营成果。将环境活动纳入企业会计核算体系, 反映企业对自然资源的消耗和对环境的污染及其治理情况, 披露环境会计信息, 成为传统会计面临的新课题, 本文主要对环境会计信息披露的内容和方式进行探讨     

贵州健康老龄化的非经济制约因素

贵州省人口老龄化具有农村人口老龄化程度高于城镇、性别比偏低、文化水平较低,且民族、地区差异明显的特点。目前制约健康老龄化的非经济因素主要有法制环境问题,政府、社区组织老年工作问题,以及养老文化面临冲击的问题。针对存在问题提出三条相应对策。     

区域经济增长与环境质量演进关系模型研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线

从社会福利最大化角度出发,通过设定物品消费偏好指数,建立两物品模型,推导出了区域环境最佳投资水平;在此基础上,从理论上证明了环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的依据以及在环境质量最低点和环境质量发生根本性好转的转折点的社会总投资水平。最后,得出环境质量演化过程曲线取决于社会经济发展状况,它与非环境物品生产函数和排污生产函数的技术参数、居民收入水平以及对环境物品和非环境物品的消费偏好以及国民收入分配政策等有关,而非仅仅与经济增长状况有关。     

Industry and the environment: a case study of cleaner technologies in selected European countries

The aim of this case study is to discuss the role of technology in addressing environmental problems. The paper tries to scratch beneath the surface of the increasingly frequent ‘quick-fix’ solutions to the present environmental problems, based on such beguiling catchwords as Cleaner Technologies, Best Available Technologies, and Best Available Technologies Not Exceeding Excessive Costs, etc., in an attempt to discover whether there is any substance in them, or whether they are just full of hot air. Recent data from case studies performed by the author in Germany and Finland as well as a postal questionnaire in Denmark are presented. The paper analyses and discusses the roles and responsibilities of designers, industrialists, and government policy-makers. It is argued that existing regulatory regimes, supranational industrial structures, and market mechanisms do not favour the development of cleaner technologies, nor do they promote a reduction in consumption patterns. Evidence from ongoing empirical research in Northwest Europe suggests that industry is far from developing and/or implementing cleaner technologies. The paper closes with a discussion of some of the policy implications involved and some examples of urgently needed further research.