The econometrics of female labor supply and children

This is a survey of applied econometric research on the effects of children on female labor supply. Reasons for interest in the topic, and a basic model and terminology, are reviewed. Concerns are raised about the possible endogeneity of child status variables, and about the instrumental variables approach for dealing with this problem. Alternative ways of conceptualizing and estimating child status effects are considered, together with selected empirical evidence. Relevant developments from the household demand literature are summarized. Basic issues of model choice are also discussed.     

Why do French women have more children than German women? Family policies and attitudes towards child care outside the home

French mothers are still more often economically active than their German counterparts and birth rates in France remain higher than in West Germany. By comparing two countries with many similarities in their family policies, I try to demonstrate that the differences between state policies per se should not be overestimated in explaining the persistent gap in their fertility level. As far as women's attitudes towards child care outside of the home are concerned, there is a strong divide between France and West Germany. In the Old Länder in Germany there is some congruence between attitudes and beliefs towards child care and the shortage of child care provision, especially for toddlers. As a product of the interaction between shortage of child care provision, women's attitudes regarding child care and mothers' low labour force participation rate, German family policy reinforces these attitudes. Conversely, there is slow impetus for policy makers to really develop a comprehensive public child care system. Against this cultural and institutional background, an increasing number of women give priority to their job or to their career. In France, by contrast, norms in respect of education of toddlers and young children have evolved in tandem with the change in attitudes of women towards employment. A majority of French women feel legitimised to be in employment on a full-time basis and to have their children cared for outside the home. Their attitudes are in tune with the premises of family policy which has integrated the model of 'the employed mother'. Les Francaises continuent àavoir plus d'enfants que les Allemandes de l'Ouest alors que les différences entre les taux d'activité des mères se sont progressivement atténuées. La proportion de femmes qui n'ont pas d'enfants, en particulier, est beaucoup plus importante en Allemagne de l'Ouest. En comparant deux pays dont les politiques sociales et familiales présentent des similarités, on se propose d'aller au delà des explications les plus couramment admises. En France, contrairement à l'Allemagne de l'Ouest, les normes régissant l'éducation des jeunes enfants ont évolué en phase avec les changements qui ont affectéles comportements des femmes sur le marché du travail. Il est devenu légitime socialement pour les Francaises de travailler à plein temps tout en faisant garder son enfant à l'extérieur du domicile. Les Allemandes de l'Ouest, par contre, intériorisent toujours fortement la norme selon laquelle l'éducation d'un jeune enfant nécessite la présence permanente de sa mère. Mais de plus en plus éduquées, elles sont amenées à accorder la priorité à leur maintien dans l'emploi et à renoncer à la maternité. Pour mieux comprendre les différences de fácondité entre les deux pays, il semble donc fructueux de se focaliser sur les interactions à l'aeuvre entre leurs politiques familiales, les valeurs auxquelles adhèrent la majorité des couples concernant l'éducation des jeunes enfants et les attitudes des femmes face au travail rémunéré.     

The transition to parenthood in Puerto Rico: Occupational status and the timing of first births

This study examines the relationship between occupational status and fertility timing during a period of rapid development in Puerto Rico. Our fundamental hypothesis is that women with higher status occupations face greater opportunity costs than those with less valued jobs and therefore will be more likely to postpone parenthood until later ages than women without such high costs. We test this hypothesis using event history techniques with data from the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, an island-wide survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49. The analysis examines the effects of occupational status on the timing of first births, and finds strong support for the basic hypothesis, especially regarding the post-ponement of teen births. After the teen years, the effects are less pronounced. Overall, it appears that employment opportunities have played an important role in childbearing decisions in Puerto Rico.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, Colorado, 30 April–2 May 1992.     

An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change

Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country’s carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.

Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility

In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density, although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future studies of fertility determinants.

A constitutional theory of the family

The paper re-examines the idea that a family can be viewed as a community governed by a self-enforcing constitution, and extends existing results in two directions. First, it identifies the circumstances in which a constitution is renegotiation-proof. Second, it introduces parental altruism. The behavioural and policy implications are illustrated by showing the effects of public pensions and credit rationing. These implications are not much affected by whether altruism is assumed or not, but contrast sharply with those of more conventional models.

发挥兵团文化优势，建设军垦新型生育文化

新疆生产建设兵团在五十多年的时间里,形成了具有明显兵团特色的新型军垦生育文化。本文拟从移民文化、党政军企合一的军垦文化、兵团特色的妇女文化等视角来揭示兵团新型军垦生育文化的成因．为构建社会主义新型生育文化提供一个可资借鉴的经验。     

On high fertility rates in developing countries: birth limits, birth taxes, or education subsidies?

In this paper, we consider two types of population policies observed in practice: birth limits and birth taxes. We find that both achieve very similar equilibrium solutions if tax revenue finances lump-sum transfers. By reducing fertility and promoting growth, both birth policies may achieve higher welfare than conventional education subsidies financed by income taxes. A birth tax for education subsidies can achieve the first-best solution. The welfare gain of the first-best policy may be equivalent to a massive 10–50% rise in income, depending on the degree of human capital externalities and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.      

Rural/urban differentials in demographic processes: The Central Asian states

While the populations of the Central Asian successor states are extremely heterogeneous on many indicators, the issue of rural or urban residence is consistently important in terms of differentials in population growth, socio-economic status and public health. In this paper I focus on rural population trends in Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. I explore the relatively disadvantaged position of rural inhabitants as well as regional variations within the rural population. The differentials in fertility and mortality rates and the large projected population increases indicate that future policy interventions and data collection efforts should incorporate a specific focus on rural areas.     

基于符号互动论视角下的个体生育态度探究

近年来随着人口老龄化进程的明显加快,以及不同地区、城市出现的生育率持续走低等情况,中国未来人口数量的变化成为了一个十分重要的议题。近年来,国家先后制定了“双独生二胎”、“单独生二胎”以及全面放开二胎等鼓励民众生育的相关政策;相关学者也从人口学和经济学等视角对生育问题展开了诸多研究。本研究则是从符号互动论这一微观社会学视角出发,试图了解民众（主要集中在1970年至1995年出生的群体）生育态度是否会受到社会心理因素,尤其是从小生长的家庭环境中,兄弟姊妹等手足人数、手足关系、父母对待子女公平与否和出生排行的影响;以及当前生活环境,如社会治安状况、经济发展前景和政治稳定性等方面的主观判断对生育态度的影响;最后研究还将结婚意愿、性别等因素纳入到影响个体生育态度的分析模型之中。研究结果发现,兄弟姊妹等手足越多者,未来越倾向要生孩子;手足间关系越好者,未来也越倾向于要生孩子;排行中间的比排行老大的生孩子意愿高;无论父母对自己和手足公平情况怎样,都不会影响其生育态度。此外在所有外在环境中,经济状况是影响人们生育态度的主要因素,有结婚意愿者更倾向于生育孩子,男性也显著比女性更倾向于生育孩子。