中国“三农”问题研究现状及其成果评价——基于国家社科基金项目及其成果论文的计量分析

随着国家社科基金项目对“三农”问题研究的资助力度不断加强,相关研究发展迅速且成果卓著,对此进行整体梳理,既有助于总结以往研究的经验,也有益于相关问题研究的不断深入.文章以1991-2015年立项的3 375项“三农”问题国家社科基金项目及其18 770篇成果论文为研究对象,对项目信息、成果论文、研究热点与评价等方面进行计量分析,全面呈现中国“三农”问题近30年的发展与研究状况.研究表明,农民、新生代农民工、新农村等为“三农”问题的研究热点,有关农民、农民工的论文最受关注且被引频次最高.     

国际货币基金组织与世界银行之比较研究

国际货币基金组织和世界银行是全球举足轻重的国际组织,两者在许多方面存在异同。本文从历史沿革、宗旨、组织机构、资金来源、业务领域和贷款程序六个层面对二者进行了比较。     

A Factor-Adjusted Multiple Testing Procedure With Application to Mutual Fund Selection

In this article, we propose a factor-adjusted multiple testing (FAT) procedure based on factor-adjusted p-values in a linear factor model involving some observable and unobservable factors, for the purpose of selecting skilled funds in empirical finance. The factor-adjusted p-values were obtained after extracting the latent common factors by the principal component method. Under some mild conditions, the false discovery proportion can be consistently estimated even if the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be weakly correlated across units. Furthermore, by appropriately setting a sequence of threshold values approaching zero, the proposed FAT procedure enjoys model selection consistency. Extensive simulation studies and a real data analysis for selecting skilled funds in the U.S. financial market are presented to illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

国际视角下中国地震保险基金制度构建探析

通过对美国加州、日本和新西兰地震保险基金制度的分析,探索一种能使我国保险业在抗震救灾中发挥重要作用的路径.主张建立起政府主导的地震保险基金,作为地震风险市场化、社会化的资源整合平台,充当我国地震保险的再保险人,实现地震风险的多层次分担,确保地震一旦发生,灾区人民能够通过保险渠道获取稳定的救济和灾后重建资金,从而减轻国家财政负担.     

中国法学生产力分布格局检视——基于国家社科基金法学类立项课题的统计分析

近20年来,伴随法治中国进程的不断推进,法学学科的影响力总体呈现出平稳上升的趋势.就地域分布而言,北京、上海、武汉仍旧是法学研究的重镇;就学科分布而言,民商法、宪法与行政法以及诉讼法学均属热门学科;就制约因子而言,法学研究的繁荣程度与经济发展水平以及学术产出能力均存在相关关系.就法学研究的发展方向而言,“司法改革”“宪法实施”“立法评估”“知识产权保护”将是未来新的理论增长点;在学术梯队建设方面,60后与70后群体将逐渐成为引领未来研究方向的主力;在法学研究的总体布局方面,基于政治红利的地缘优势将逐步弱化.     

养老保险体系的两种模式与社会经济因素关系比较分析

本文分析了现收现付和基金积累两种不同养老保险模式与人口老龄化、社会经济增长、通货膨胀、储蓄等社会经济因素之间的关系。经济的增长情况以不同的方式对现收现付模式和基金积累模式产生影响:对现收现付模式来说,如果经济增长缓慢,未来就业者的养老金负担就会增加,其效果与老龄人口在总人口中的比重增大一样;对于基金积累模式而言,如果经济的增长缓慢,那么在长时期内,利率就会处于一个相对较低的水平,这是不利于养老基金的有效增值,未来退休者的养老金收益就会减少。与现收现付模式相比,基金积累模式能带来一个更高的储蓄水平。     

Protecting the ageing poor or strengthening the market economy: the case of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund

The Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) launched by the Hong Kong government seems to be a residual welfare state's strategy to cope with an ageing population and, at the same time, preserve a minimal welfare state and further enhance economic development. The MPF can only provide limited protection for a limited number of employees; many older people still have to depend on financial support from their families or have to work. On the other hand, the MPF immediately boosts the economy by creating more jobs for the financial services sector and by providing more business opportunities for banks and insurance companies. Thus, the MPF has consolidated the foundation of Hong Kong's capitalism by socialising and incorporating the whole working population in the market economy but has provided little protection for their old age.     

税费改革免征农业税后村委会筹资问题的探讨

为解决农业、农村和农民问题,党中央、国务院在农业发展新阶段采取了一项战略性的举措———农村税费改革。文章主要针对税费改革后村委会收入大幅减少,村委会可用资金明显减少,村集体经济组织存在明显的经营不足和公益事业难办等问题进行探析,提出进一步加强对村委会资金筹集的管理与监督的必要性,以保证村委会的正常运转,并从财务的角度对村委会合理地筹集资金提出对策建议。     

A computational general equilibrium approach to the shadow pricing of trade restrictions and the adjustment of the exchange rate, with an application to Argentina

A general equilibrium model of an open economy in which there are ad valorem texes on domestic production and export activities, and import activities are subject to both tariffs and quotas is constructed. A domestic monetary asset, foreign exchange, and a corresponding nominal exchange rate are introduced and a numerical example of the model is constructed. The example is solved via the Scarf fixed point algorithm, first with taut quotas and then after having relaxed quotas. Various price indices are then used to guide programs designed to stabilize the trade balance against the quota liberalization. An empirical example, using Argentine data, is carried out to find the quota equivalent of a particular tariff.     

Distributional implications of changes in U.S. petroleum taxation

This article develops a methodology based on input-output relations for the evaluation of excise tax incidence. Since many excise taxes are levied on products that are used not only in final consumption but also as intermediate inputs in the production of other commodities, estimation of the tax burden by the conventional methodology of using direct final consumption may yield inadequate and perhaps misleading results. The input-output methodology developed in this article is applied to the case of the U.S. taxation of petroleum products and the empirical results are compared with similar ones obtained by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office.