当代资本主义经济停滞问题:制度结构与治理危机——基于积累的社会结构理论的分析

关于经济停滞问题的探讨是对马克思主义经济危机理论的传承。2008年金融危机爆发十余年,资本主义经济停滞趋于常态化。积累的社会结构理论从资本积累与支撑这一积累的制度环境之间的矛盾出发,发现了主流经济学探讨资本主义经济停滞所忽略的制度性因素。积累的社会结构学派沿着"中间层次"的路径,将2008年金融危机界定为系统性的结构危机,认为新自由主义SSA的失灵是此次经济停滞持续的原因。资本主义经济停滞引发欧美发达资本主义国家的社会治理危机升级,一系列政治、社会和文化危机不断加剧。积累的社会结构理论从微观层面深刻把握了资本主义制度转型的轨迹,但并未深入探讨开展根本的制度变革。在面临百年未有之大变局的时代境遇下,中国在参与全球治理的过程中不断探索并推动世界经济政治新秩序朝着更加公正、合理的方向发展。     

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post-Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter-Earthquake Heterogeneity

Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities.     

Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches

Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.     

Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

企业成长过程中组织结构演进规律及动因

阐述企业成长过程中组织结构的演变规律,运用管理学及经济学相关理论,揭示组织结构演变的内在动因。分析表明,随着企业的成长,组织结构呈现从直线职能制到事业部制的规律性变化,从管理学意义上,这种变化极大地降低了生产成本和流通费用,从而取得了管理协调的“速度经济”;从经济学意义上,则意味着管理分工导致企业运营效率提高;更深层次看,是一个分权的、控制权较为明晰的组织模式被逐渐使用,最终导致一个均衡权力结构模型———联邦分权式事业部制的产生。     

论建设农村全面小康社会的途径

文章将建设农村全面小康社会作为一项系统工程进行研究，既指出建设农村全面小康社会要依靠农业自身的发展，又阐述了从其他途径建设农村全面小康的可能性、必要性。     

Modelling heterogeneous space–time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis

Summary. Earthquake intensities are modelled as a function of previous activity whose specific form is based on established empirical laws in seismology, but whose parameter values can vary from place to place. This model is used for characterizing regional features of seismic activities in and around Japan, and also for exploring regions where the actual seismicity rate systematically deviates from that of the modelled rate.     

析"像X似的"结构关系——兼与张斌、陆俭明等先生商榷

对“像X似的”进行静态的句法切分 ,可以得到两种结果 :(甲 )像 /X似的 ;(乙 )像X/似的。本文首先从“像”、“似的”的实际用法出发 ,将“像X似的”短语分化为两类格式 :A、“像X似的”比况短语 ;B、“像X似的”揣测短语。然后着重对A类的传统 (甲 )式切分进行否定 ,提出新的看法。     

析英汉语言表层结构的逆向性——汉语向心性与英语外展性特征

认为语言是表达思维的载体。思维的存在虽无法直接观测 ,然而它却能被语言有形地、程度不同地反映出来。所有的自然语言 ,虽不乏共性 ,但由于思维的差异 ,使各自的句法结构、叙述过程产生差异。作为人类最大的两种语言 ,汉语和英语不仅反映了东方语言群和西方语言群在描述相同客观世界中存在的语言学意义上的相异特征 ,而且揭示了东方人和西方人在思维模式上的基本差异。所以 ,研究英语汉语结构特征 ,对于进而探索不同的思维规律 ,乃至学习和研究英汉文化、从根本上提高英语学习效率等 ,均有实际的学术价值和社会意义。     

社区安全与环境设计--在"可防卫空间"之后

社区犯罪历来都被认为与社区实质环境之间存在直接的关系,本文回顾了近40年来与社区安全有关的环境行为研究后发现,可防卫空间、建筑规模、土地使用和空间结构等实体要素与犯罪和居民的安全感之间有密切联系,它们的关系是复杂的多层次的,而且还受到了社区的社会结构、认知和管理等多方面的影响。