Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

战后美国对外援助政策的历史考察

〕关于美国对外援助 ,学者在论述时 ,往往侧重于得出结论性的评价 ,如把美国的对外援助与人权外交结合起来 ,认为美国对外援助尤其是经济援助是推行人权外交的工具 ,体现了美国的霸权主义 ;也有一些学者认为 ,美国提出对外经济援助计划的主要目的是为了维护美国的经济、政治利益 ,它与人权外交的关系不大。美国对外援助政策的提出 ,是美国外交政策的重大突破 ,自此美国人的视野更加开阔 ,对外援助政策是实现美国世界霸权的工具 ,无论何时美国的对外援助政策都是为了维护美国国内经济的持续繁荣 ,国内政策的制定一直是美国政府的中心工作     

清除个人崇拜 增强党内民主

完善党内民主制度是提高党的执政能力的重要内容。中国共产党内曾经产生过严重的个人崇拜,今天仍然发生着不良影响。个人崇拜的危害主要表现为集权、人治、偶像崇拜、思想僵化、破坏党内民主制度。不彻底清除个人崇拜,就不能真正完善党内民主制度,党也就不能率领广大人民群众最终完成建设社会主义现代化强国的宏伟任务。     

论唯物史观的三大基本特征

唯物史观具有三大基本特征, 即: 实践原则与主体性原则的内在一致, 它为唯物史观奠定了彻底的唯物主义理论基础; 历史发展过程的客体制约性与主体创造性的辩证统一, 它为唯物史观赋予了辩证的理论品格; 人的自由解放与历史进程的高度一致, 它使唯物史观获得了明确的价值指向。这三大基本特征有着内在的逻辑联系, 使唯物史观与其它一切历史观从根本上区别开来。     

浅析黎巴嫩内乱的历史根源

教派隔阂和教派政治、列强的争夺和外部势力的插手、殖民者的"分而治之"政策、阿以冲突和巴勒斯坦问题是黎巴嫩内乱的四大历史根源.它们是在漫长的历史中逐步形成并发挥作用的,且呈现出积重难返的态势.要彻底结束黎巴嫩的内乱局面,只有逐步实现四个目标:教派利益服从民族国家利益;排除外部势力的恶性干扰;建立平等友好的黎叙关系;实现黎以关系正常化并最终公正地解决巴勒斯坦问题.     

Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

世纪辉煌的地域文化背景呈示——"浙江潮"文学现象研究之一

"浙江潮"文学现象对中国20世纪文学的发展极具观照意义,而就其"生成"原因看,则显然是这个地域积淀深厚的历史文化传统所致,对此作深入探讨,必将有助于文学历史经验的总结。     

《新青年》与《甲寅》月刊之历史渊源—《新青年》创刊史研究之一

1915年9月创刊的《新青年》，在其创刊之初，与《甲寅》月刊之间，在主编，撰稿人队伍，发刊宗旨，栏目设置，刊物风格等方面存在着很深的渊源关系，清理它们之间的这种关系，有助于更深入而全面地认识五四新文化运动的形成和发展。     

明清时期韩城地区山庄子的历史变迁--以党家村为例

对韩城地区进行了为期60天的调查,发现山庄子的兴衰在古代韩城地区农业发展史上具有代表性,对此进行描述和分析,对于当今这一地区的经济建设具有重要的参考价值。其变迁过程说明,人地矛盾是促使宗族剩余劳动力进入山区经营山庄子的根本动力,同时,又在一定政策的鼓励之下,步入了其繁荣发展期,从而成为当地农业的一个有效补充形式。但是大量人口的过度进入,却破坏了山区的生态平衡,导致气候改变,林地、草地锐减以及土地产出下降,从而使山庄子的发展陷于停滞,无可奈何地步入了衰退期。