How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

1937年上海“纱交风潮”——以《申报》和《大公报》报道为中心的考察

1937年上海“纱交风潮”系上海纱布交易所爆发的影响巨大且后果最严重的一次风潮。此次风潮的起因是多方面的，其中最根本的原因是孔家官僚资本为获取巨利插手纱交、操纵市场、大搞投机活动。这场风潮促使国民政府颁布《取缔上海纱布交易所投机办法》，并对此次风潮进行“澈查”，然“澈查”结果却虎头蛇尾。由此看出，国民政府与官僚资本的密切关系，即官僚资本已凭借各种超经济特权在国民经济中取得了独特的优势地位。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

The Impact of Items and Anchors on Parent–Child Reports of Problem Behavior

Research has repeatedly demonstrated that parent and child reports of child behavior and emotional functioning often do not agree in terms of symptom severity or even symptom presence. Given the potential clinical impact that discrepant reports may have on the therapeutic process, a significant amount of research has addressed the factors influencing this observed discrepancy. Traditionally, this research has evaluated the impact of demographic factors on mean differences and obtained correlation coefficients between parent and child reports. The current research improves upon previous research in this area in two ways. First, the current research uses parent and child measures with identical rather than similar items as is commonly found in previous research. Second, the current research moves beyond identifying demographic influences on discrepant reports by explaining observed discrepancies in terms of differences in parent and child perceptions of typical child behavior.David Carlston and Benjamin Ogles are affiliated with Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, USA.Funding for this project was provided by the Ohio Department of Mental Health.     

顾客忠诚的驱动因素及其作用

致力于赢得顾客忠诚的企业需要对顾客忠诚的真正含义和驱动因素进行全面的把握。本文在区分顾客忠诚的内在态度取向和外在重购行为两个维度的基础上 ,对顾客忠诚的驱动因素及其作用作了较为全面深入的分析     

试析高校院系资料室的隐性功能

信息时代中 ,由于网络在查找资料上的方便与快捷 ,已经对当前高校的院系资料室形成较大的冲击 ,资料室存在的合理性因此受到质疑。然而 ,笔者认为网络可以取代的只是资料室的显性功能 ,而资料室本身所具有的隐性功能则是网络所无法替代的。本文主要以资料室的隐性功能的阐释为出发点 ,认为环境与交往是资料室隐性功能发挥的重要机制 ,进而剖析高校院系资料室隐性功能的具体体现     

Interfamily economic exchange: A function of culture or economics?

This study explores differences in inter-household exchange of goods and services in Anglo- and Mexican-American families controlling for income level and for ethnicity. The extent of such exchange, its perceived importance to the family's quality of life, satisfaction with the exchange, and the relation of persons in the exchange process are examined. Significant differences are found more often between higher income Anglo- and Mexican-Americans than between low-income families, both in the family providing goods and services for others and in the receipt of them. Higher income Mexican-American families are more likely than their Anglo- counterparts to exchange with relatives. Ethnic effects are more prevalent in higher income households than in low-income households. Economic effects are more predominant than ethnic effects.This study contributes to interregional Agricultural Experiment Station Research Project NC-128, Quality of Life as Influenced by Area of Residence. Cooperating states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Texas.Flora L. Williams' current research interests include income adequacy, financial problems, and indicators of change in economic well-being. She is an Associate Professor, Consumer Sciences and Retailing, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.     

What can we learn from twin studies? A comprehensive evaluation of the equal environments assumption

Twin studies are a major source of information about genetic effects on behavior, but they depend on a controversial assumption known as the equal environments assumption (EEA): that similarity in co-twins’ environments is not predictive of similarity in co-twin outcomes. Although evidence has largely supported the EEA, critics have claimed that environmental similarity has not been measured well, and most studies of the EEA have focused on outcomes related to health and psychology. This article addresses these limitations through (1) a reanalysis of data from the most cited study of the EEA, Loehlin and Nichols (1976), using better measures, and through (2) an analysis of nationally representative twin data from MIDUS using more comprehensive controls on a wider variety of outcomes than previous studies. Results support a middle ground position; it is likely that the EEA is not strictly valid for most outcomes, but the resulting bias is likely modest.     

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self‐Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza.     

不背乎教 亦不泥乎教——明代回族读书人对回儒文化交流的心态

公元13世纪回回人从灿烂的阿拉伯伊斯兰文化的高峰走来,进入高度发达的中国的汉文化领域。阿拉伯伊斯兰文化是形成发展中的回回民族的一种文化形式,它从真主独一的信仰及其功修、伦理道德、价值观念、生活方式等方面维护着形成中的回回民族的民族的同一性。在汉文化面前如何保存自己固有的阿拉伯伊斯兰文化,使其继续传承,不致中断,这是摆在回回人面前的新问题。同时,为了民族的生存发展,回回人必须学习汉文化,以适应中国传统社会,以被中国传统社会所接纳。而汉文化是一