1937年上海“纱交风潮”——以《申报》和《大公报》报道为中心的考察

1937年上海“纱交风潮”系上海纱布交易所爆发的影响巨大且后果最严重的一次风潮。此次风潮的起因是多方面的，其中最根本的原因是孔家官僚资本为获取巨利插手纱交、操纵市场、大搞投机活动。这场风潮促使国民政府颁布《取缔上海纱布交易所投机办法》，并对此次风潮进行“澈查”，然“澈查”结果却虎头蛇尾。由此看出，国民政府与官僚资本的密切关系，即官僚资本已凭借各种超经济特权在国民经济中取得了独特的优势地位。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

Asymptotic bias in the linear mixed effects model under non-ignorable missing data mechanisms

Summary.  In longitudinal studies, missingness of data is often an unavoidable problem. Estimators from the linear mixed effects model assume that missing data are missing at random. However, estimators are biased when this assumption is not met. In the paper, theoretical results for the asymptotic bias are established under non-ignorable drop-out, drop-in and other missing data patterns. The asymptotic bias is large when the drop-out subjects have only one or no observation, especially for slope-related parameters of the linear mixed effects model. In the drop-in case, intercept-related parameter estimators show substantial asymptotic bias when subjects enter late in the study. Eight other missing data patterns are considered and these produce asymptotic biases of a variety of magnitudes.     

山西大学学生身体素质状况的跟踪研究

该文通过对山西大学在校学生 1992～ 1999年的素质状况的跟踪研究 ,针对显示出的问题提出相应对策 ,为改善大学生的身体素质提供科学依据     

Interfamily economic exchange: A function of culture or economics?

This study explores differences in inter-household exchange of goods and services in Anglo- and Mexican-American families controlling for income level and for ethnicity. The extent of such exchange, its perceived importance to the family's quality of life, satisfaction with the exchange, and the relation of persons in the exchange process are examined. Significant differences are found more often between higher income Anglo- and Mexican-Americans than between low-income families, both in the family providing goods and services for others and in the receipt of them. Higher income Mexican-American families are more likely than their Anglo- counterparts to exchange with relatives. Ethnic effects are more prevalent in higher income households than in low-income households. Economic effects are more predominant than ethnic effects.This study contributes to interregional Agricultural Experiment Station Research Project NC-128, Quality of Life as Influenced by Area of Residence. Cooperating states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Texas.Flora L. Williams' current research interests include income adequacy, financial problems, and indicators of change in economic well-being. She is an Associate Professor, Consumer Sciences and Retailing, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.     

云南边疆少数民族间的"康吧"经济交往模式:理论与实证分析

"康吧"交往是纳西族与傈僳族、藏族之间一种独特而历史悠久的物质交换模式,它不符合理性选择的逻辑却能世代延续至今,同时,不同民族间的"康吧"交往又存在差异。本文借鉴西方主流理论对这种古老的交往模式进行分析,从经济学、社会学、人类学的多重理论角度出发,采用访谈、观察与定量分析相结合的研究方法,对上述现象进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)资源依赖性、信任和互惠原则对"康吧"交往的延续至关重要;(2)货币市场和投机行为的出现导致"康吧"交往走向衰落,但情感互惠和资源互补使之至今存在;(3)自然资源条件、资源互补程度、社会历史背景和文化因素,对交往模式的差异都有重要影响作用。     

仿射模型、广义仿射模型与上交所利率期限结构

本文以上交所利率期限结构从1996年6月至2003年2月的周样本数据作为分析对象,发现样本期内利率期限结构的平均形状是上斜的,而短期利率的基本趋势是下降的,说明长期债券具有较高的风险金。然后利用卡尔曼滤波法,实证分析了连续时间的两因子仿射、广义高斯仿射利率模型。结果表明模型下的利率期限结构与实际观测到的利率期限结构形状基本相同,说明模型能够反映利率期限结构的横截面特征。但两个模型对1,2,3,5,7年期利率的预测误差表现出一定序列相关性,说明模型还不能够很好地描述利率期限结构的时间序列特征。     

对转型期中国犯罪实际发案情况的估测

本文以联合国犯罪受害调查和公安部的立案不实调查为依据,对我国1978年以来犯罪的实际发案情况进行了估测。考虑到有许多犯罪案件发生后受害人没有报案以及立案不实顽症的客观存在,我国的犯罪问题实际上比以立案数为标准的统计值所反映的情况要严重得多。2004年全国犯罪发案数、犯罪率分别达到约2348万起、1800起／10万人,分别比同年犯罪立案数统计值 (471．8万起)和犯罪率统计值(363起／10万人)高4倍。不过,我国的犯罪率仍然低于世界平均水平。     

不背乎教 亦不泥乎教——明代回族读书人对回儒文化交流的心态

公元13世纪回回人从灿烂的阿拉伯伊斯兰文化的高峰走来,进入高度发达的中国的汉文化领域。阿拉伯伊斯兰文化是形成发展中的回回民族的一种文化形式,它从真主独一的信仰及其功修、伦理道德、价值观念、生活方式等方面维护着形成中的回回民族的民族的同一性。在汉文化面前如何保存自己固有的阿拉伯伊斯兰文化,使其继续传承,不致中断,这是摆在回回人面前的新问题。同时,为了民族的生存发展,回回人必须学习汉文化,以适应中国传统社会,以被中国传统社会所接纳。而汉文化是一     

中国的离婚率与社会结构变化分析

从中国的离婚率与社会结构变化的时间序列分析中可以看出 :离婚率随非农产业人口比重的提高而提高 ,并有三年的时滞 ;离婚率也和人口城市化的发展有密切的关系 ,两者的比重一并提高 ,但约有五年的时滞。因这两方面社会结构的变化 ,直接影响妇女就业率提高和妇女职业结构的变化 ,而由此引起的人口迁移流动的大变动 ,也必然影响婚姻家庭观念的变化