Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

浅析英国工业革命的市场条件

国内外市场的存在及市场需求的不断增长的压力是英国工业生产发展的主要动因。英国可资利用的市场规模远较欧洲其它国家的市场大,这大大便利了英国工业品的生产与销售。英国市场的性质也有助于工业再生产的进行。     

嫩江流域发展绿色农业产业集群研究

利用SWOT分析工具,以嫩江流域为例,分析绿色农业产业集群的内部优势和劣势以及外部机遇和挑战。嫩江流域发展绿色农业产业集群的途径:按经济区域做好产业发展规划;注重产业关联,促进产业集群发展;以核心企业为龙头,带动主导产业的集群化;发挥政府职能,促进嫩江流域绿色农业产业集群的发展。     

工厂供电课程教学方法探讨

工厂供电课程存在着教学任务肾、课时少的现象,按传统的讲授法进行教学,会出现教不好、学不透的两难境地。为避免此类现象的发生,提出了引导法、角色转换法、对比论证法、现代教育法等多种教学方法。经过教学实践证明,这些方法能有效地提高学生的学习效率,促进学生综合能力的提高。     

论近代中国产业革命被窒息的原因--一个必须遵循先进生产力发展要求的历史实例

近代科学技术与民族棉纺织业私人资本结合是东方型产业革命兴起的直接导因.洋务运动使近代中国具备了产业革命兴起的可能性;但由于晚清政府不能代表当时中国先进生产力的发展要求,造成近代中国棉纺织业的发展走的是一条技术与资本相分离的道路,致使近代中国产业革命被窒息.     

苏锡常都市圈产业发展的定位分析

正确的产业发展定位是都市圈经济腾飞的保障。一定程度的产业同构和错位竞争,有利于形成产业集聚优势和区域间的优势互补,苏锡常都市圈应跳出各自为政、相互竞争的圈子,在区域内整合资源,优化资源,实现区域共同发展,形成长三角地区有强大竞争力的次级都市圈。     

The utilization of prevailing evaluation policy in the selection of performance measures

This study considers the problem of inferring a functional evaluation criterion from existing performance measure policies. The objective is to develop a rational basis by which to adaptively evaluate a current best set of performance measures from alternative sets. The analysis is based on a matrix approach for relating system characteristics to performance measures across a set of activities. A procedure for ranking measure combinations which are candidate implementation alternatives is devised using this matrix representation and cost information. An example illustrating the procedure is presented.     

The Big Five personality factors and team performance: implications for selecting successful product design teams

In the pursuit of faster product development, product design teams are a growing phenomenon in many organizations. In order to be successful, these teams must be composed of people who work well together. However, despite the benefit of selecting the optimal combination of team members, this topic has received little attention. Personality has been identified as a potentially helpful selection variable in the determination of optimal team composition. This study examines the relationships between the ‘Big Five’ personality factors (Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Neuroticism, Agreeableness, and Openness to Experience) and objective team performance for three-member product design teams. In addition to this, the potential incremental contribution of personality to the variance in team performance over that accounted for by established selection measures such as general cognitive ability was investigated. In the short duration of the study, it became apparent that some teams were capable of success, and some were not. Successful teams were characterized by higher levels of general cognitive ability, higher extraversion, higher agreeableness, and lower neuroticism than their unsuccessful counterparts. In successful teams, the heterogeneity of conscientiousness was negatively related to increments in product performance. Implications for the selection of product design teams and future directions for research are discussed.     

多重制度逻辑与产业扶贫项目的异化 ——组织场域的视角

作为扶贫开发的重要途径,产业扶贫在实践过程中常常出现瞄不准或瞄准了但效果不突出的情形,组织场域为揭示其中的奥秘提供了有益视角。Y村的案例表明,在产业扶贫的组织场域内,地方政府与烟草公司在各自领域制度环境的制约下对自身参与产业扶贫的行为作出适应性的调整,改变了产业扶贫场域内的资讯交换渠道与资源传递方式,进而形成了组织行为主体参与产业扶贫的隐形运行逻辑。循此逻辑,非正式权力与利益的勾连固化了组织行为主体的权力关系与场域位置,扶贫资源经由村委会与合作社的承接更多流向村干部及种植大户等村庄精英群体,贫困农户则处于边缘位置。组织场域内中心--边缘关系结构的形成最终导致产业扶贫实践中制度表达与项目实践的背离。     

Social network and content analysis of the North American Carbon Program as a scientific community of practice

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) was formed to further the scientific understanding of sources, sinks, and stocks of carbon in Earth's environment. Carbon cycle science integrates multidisciplinary research, providing decision-support information for managing climate and carbon-related change across multiple sectors of society. This investigation uses the conceptual framework of communities of practice (CoP) to explore the role that the NACP has played in connecting researchers into a carbon cycle knowledge network, and in enabling them to conduct physical science that includes ideas from social science. A CoP describes the communities formed when people consistently engage in shared communication and activities toward a common passion or learning goal. We apply the CoP model by using keyword analysis of abstracts from scientific publications to analyze the research outputs of the NACP in terms of its knowledge domain. We also construct a co-authorship network from the publications of core NACP members, describe the structure and social pathways within the community. Results of the content analysis indicate that the NACP community of practice has substantially expanded its research on human and social impacts on the carbon cycle, contributing to a better understanding of how human and physical processes interact with one another. Results of the co-authorship social network analysis demonstrate that the NACP has formed a tightly connected community with many social pathways through which knowledge may flow, and that it has also expanded its network of institutions involved in carbon cycle research over the past seven years.