Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

几类全微分方程问题的求解定理

利用全微分方程的条件，给出一类微分方程的积分因子及通解公式，得出一类全微分方程中未知函数所满足的二阶线性微分方程，获得未知函数及全微分方程的通解。     

Quadratic estimators of covariance components in a multivariate mixed linear model

It is known that the Henderson Method III (Biometrics 9:226–252, 1953) is of special interest for the mixed linear models because the estimators of the variance components are unaffected by the parameters of the fixed factor (or factors). This article deals with generalizations and minor extensions of the results obtained for the univariate linear models. A MANOVA mixed model is presented in a convenient form and the covariance components estimators are given on finite dimensional linear spaces. The results use both the usual parametric representations and the coordinate-free approach of Kruskal (Ann Math Statist 39:70–75, 1968) and Eaton (Ann Math Statist 41:528–538, 1970). The normal equations are generalized and it is given a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of quadratic unbiased estimators for covariance components in the considered model.     

Data tilting for time series

Summary. We develop a general methodology for tilting time series data. Attention is focused on a large class of regression problems, where errors are expressed through autoregressive processes. The class has a range of important applications and in the context of our work may be used to illustrate the application of tilting methods to interval estimation in regression, robust statistical inference and estimation subject to constraints. The method can be viewed as 'empirical likelihood with nuisance parameters'.     

国外教师期望效应研究进展与当代教育启示

教师期望效应是教师对学生的期望在学生的未来发展中得到证实的现象,它反映了教师对学生的态度会影响学生发展的方向和程度,开展该现象的研究对教师观念的改变和学生的健康发展均有重要意义。对教师期望效应的种类、理论模型及国外的相关研究进行了介绍,探讨了其对教育现实的一些重要启示。     

低浓度三分子反应模型双曲型反应－扩散方程的稳定性与化学振荡

考虑浓度扩散和扩散流随时间的变化，得到低浓度三分子反应模型的双曲型反应－扩散方程；讨论了方程的稳定性及存在行波解的条件，得到了化学振荡的色散关系和相速度．     

将分段函数表示为初等函数的方法

本文给出了一种化具有多个分段点，且在各区间段上的表达式为多项式函数的分段函数为初等函数的具体方法．     

二阶非线性微分方程解的振动性和渐近性

讨论了二阶非线性常微分方程(α(t)(?)(x)x′)′+q(t)f(x)=r(t)的解的振动性和渐近性.获得了有关该方程的五个新的定理.     

Some remarks on the physical models concerning two different approaches to inference in statistical process control

Summary For technological applications it can be useful to identify some simple physical mechanisms, which, on the basis of the available knowledge of the production process, may suggest the most appropriate approach to statistical control of the random quantities of interest. For this purpose the notion of rupture point is introduced firstly. A rupture point is characterized bym randomly arising out of control states, assumed to be mutually exclusive and stochastically independent. Shewhart's control charts seem to represent the natural statistical tool for controlling a rupture point; however it is shown that they are fully justified only when the hazard rates attached to the causes of failure are constant. Otherwise, typically in the presence of time increasing hazard rates, Shewhart's control charts should be completed by a preventive intervention rule (preventive maintenance). In the second place, the notion of dynamic instability point is introduced, which is specifically characterized by assuming that the random quantity of interest is ruled by a stochastic differential equation with constant coefficients. By discretization, developed according to a possibly new approach, it is shown that the former model reduces to an equation error model, which is among the simplest used in adaptive control, and thus particularly easy to deal with in regard to parameter estimation and the definition of the optimum control rule.     

混合型一阶微分不等式的振动性

研究混合型微分不等式和混合型微分方程给出了(A)没有最终正解,(B)没有最终负解,(C)只有振动解的充分条件.并对常系数的(A)、(B)、(C)给出了相应问题的充要条件,