A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

地方高等教育收益的若干问题探讨

地方高等教育的收益与本地区经济水平的发展成正比；高等教育的受益者首先是受教育者个人；可以从高等教育提高劳动生产率中来计算高等教育的收益；应该以科技为中介来研究高等教育的收益；可以从受高等教育者的职业优势上来发现高等教育的收益；可以从人才的流动或者人才市场的变化中发现高等教育的收益。     

王夫之对义、利的层次性及相对性的分析

义利观问题是中国伦理思想史的核心问题之一，历代思想家都十分重视对它的研究。王夫之在总结、继承前哲义利思想的基础上，提出了自己的义利观，并对义利进行了层次性及相对性的分析，既继承了传统道义论的精华，又极大地丰富了中国古代伦理思想的内涵。     

乡村选举中政治冷漠的成因——以成本-收益为视角的分析

政治冷漠，是一个与政治参与相对应的概念，即在政治活动和政治行为中表现出消极的政治态度，不参加政治生活，对于政治问题和政治活动的冷漠和不关心。一言以概之，就是政治不参与。在现今中国农村，虽然农民的政治素质在整体上有了很大的提高，但是由于种种因素的影响，政治冷漠现象在一定程度上还存在着。文章论述了乡村选举中的政治冷漠现象，并从成本一收益的角度分析其原因，提出发展农村经济、加强制度建设和降低选举成本等建议，旨在提高村民的政治热情，以使其通过长期参与选举等政治活动逐渐明白社会问题的症结和自身政治利益所在，从而产生应有的政治热情，减少选举中的政治冷漠行为。     

Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data

Summary.  The analysis of warranty claim data, and their use for prediction, has been a topic of active research in recent years. Field data comprising numbers of units returned under guarantee are examined, covering both situations in which the ages of the failed units are known and in which they are not. The latter case poses particular computational problems for likelihood-based methods because of the large number of feasible failure patterns that must be included as contributions to the likelihood function. For prediction of future warranty exposure, which is of central concern to the manufacturer, the Bayesian approach is adopted. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed.     

荣辱观教育的实现方法

进行荣辱观教育是社会主义道德建设的重要任务。荣辱观教育需要坚持正确的荣辱衡量标准，明确义利的辩证统一关系；坚持道德价值的一元与多元的有机结合；坚持原则性与灵活性的结合，使荣辱观教育既具有内在的逻辑性和层次性，又具有现实针对性和可操作性。     

工程建设项目投资控制

论述投资控制的关键环节,提出投资控制工作的实施要点,阐明投资控制工作的必要性、可行性和重大意义.     

论庭前证据交换制度

证据交换制度作为民事诉讼的一项重要制度有其自身的发展历程,从而显示了其重要的意义,并得到了各国的重视。我国也建立了民事诉讼证据交换制度,但仍存在着很多缺陷,所以有必要对我国的民事诉讼证据交换制度进行完善。     

论加大政府公共工程效益审计力度

政府机构、项目效益审计在国外已实行多年,而我国则刚刚起步,如何开展政府公共工程投资效益审计,则是目前急需解决的问题。本文从开展投资效益审计的必要性,以及如何实施政府公共工程投资效益审计作一些探讨,为开展政府公共工程投资效益审计实践发展探索路子。