Composite quantile regression for massive datasets

Analysis of massive datasets is challenging owing to limitations of computer primary memory. Composite quantile regression (CQR) is a robust and efficient estimation method. In this paper, we extend CQR to massive datasets and propose a divide-and-conquer CQR method. The basic idea is to split the entire dataset into several blocks, applying the CQR method for data in each block, and finally combining these regression results via weighted average. The proposed approach significantly reduces the required amount of primary memory, and the resulting estimate will be as efficient as if the entire data set is analysed simultaneously. Moreover, to improve the efficiency of CQR, we propose a weighted CQR estimation approach. To achieve sparsity with high-dimensional covariates, we develop a variable selection procedure to select significant parametric components and prove the method possessing the oracle property. Both simulations and data analysis are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

农村校车安全事故背后的教育公平问题

近年来农村校车事故频发,使得校车安全问题浮出了水面。其实,校车不够规范只是校车事故频发的表层原因,而更深层次的原因却在于城乡教育资源配置的不公平。所以要解决校车安全问题,不仅在于规范校车、提高校车的质量,还在于合理配置教育资源,实现城乡教育公平。     

论群体事件中行政紧急权力的运用与制约

伴随着改革开放的深入和经济发展取得举世瞩目的成就,我国体制与社会转型所带来的不同利益群体的矛盾和冲突,使我国进入了社会矛盾的高发期。群体事件的发生,呼吁着作为法自由和法权利支柱的权力介入。我国目前还存在机制转换不到位、忽视媒体执政权力使用、缺乏正确的权力观、机构设置过于专业和分散、紧急权力行使人员规则意识淡薄等问题。因此,当务之急是完善群体性事件中紧急权力的运用程序,提高媒体执政力,分离决策权和行使权,并做好协调和制约工作。     

群体性事件之伦理辨思

群体性事件是当前影响中国社会稳定的重要因素。个体利益受损与诱因发生、负面道德评价与人群聚集、良心拒绝与暴力反抗的组合,构成了群体性事件演化的微观过程。以此伦理分析为依据,源头阻断群体性事件并有效消除其负面影响,不仅要强调社会管控,还要强调合法性、责任性、回应以及有效等社会管理核心价值的指导作用。     

社会认知偏差:群体性事件生成的社会心理启动根源

社会认知偏差是群体性事件生成的深层次社会心理现象,通过对山东部分地区进行抽样调查,并结合近几年来全国群体性事件典型案例的分析发现,生成群体性事件的社会认知偏差,主要包括事件诱因责任归因偏差、行为模式结果预期偏差和行为结果价值偏差。因此,改善法的实施现状,消除社会认知偏差;提高公众法律意识,优化社会认知;建立心理危机干预队伍,合理引导社会认知,是群体性事件社会认知偏差的有效干预对策。     

网络群体事件政府治理的演化博弈分析

利用演化博弈模型预测舆论的发展趋势,对政府应对网络群体事件采取的治理模式进行了研究.在一般化复制动态模型基础上建立网络群体事件舆论的传播方程,将地方政府部门与弱势群体的策略互动和行为演化融入到传染病传播模型中,用以模拟舆论的扩散和收敛过程.结果表明:在网络群体事件初期,如果弱势群体通过抗争获得政府补偿的概率不断增大,将造成事态的扩大.此时,地方政府应控制信息的交流程度与初始抗争人数,减缓舆论的扩散;在网络群体事件舆论大范围扩散阶段,上级政府介入并采取惩罚措施,及时披露信息,促使网络舆论的收敛平息,实现社会福利最大化.     

群体性突发事件应急处置中政府机会主义行为的社会仿真分析

运用演化博弈理论建模与多主体社会仿真实验,分析研究了群体性突发事件中地方政府机会主义行为对事态演变的影响。首先,构建了地方政府部门与社会弱势群体间的演化博弈模型,模型结果表明了地方政府部门机会主义行为将导致群体性突发事件不断扩大的趋势;其次,基于昆明螺蛳湾商户聚集事件事态的演变过程,运用多主体社会仿真方法检验演化博弈理论模型的分析结果,仿真结果较好地验证了理论分析和案例结论。将社会仿真实验方法应用于演化博弈理论分析的研究结论表明,地方政府机会主义行为直接导致了事态扩大趋势,同时也延误了事件处理的最佳时机。     

宗教群体性事件探析

由于人民内部矛盾凸显和境内外敌对势力的政治渗透、挑唆等原因引发的涉及宗教问题的群体性事件已成为当前影响我国社会稳定和国家安全的一个突出问题,所以文章试用宗教群体性事件典型案例的剖析来证明此类事件的发生对社会造成的重大危害,从而进一步说明宗教群体性事件的研究具有着重要意义。     

新桂系与两广事变

以李宗仁、白崇禧为首的新桂系掌握广西实权后,采取了一些促进广西社会发展的措施,并取得一定的成效。时值日本展开对中国的全面侵略,广西实力派一改过去保境图存的主张,与粤系陈济棠联合发动事变,逼蒋抗日。两广事变有利于抗日民族统一战线的建立,也是两广地方,尤其是广西经济政治发展的必然选择。     

Perceptions of work stress in Australian firefighters

This study surveyed 747 firefighters on their perceptions of work stress. The current emphasis in the fire brigades is on the management of traumatic or critical incident stress, but other work stressors may also be important. The firefighters rated their jobs as more stressful than other occupations, and psychological work stress as highest among a set of potential sources and types of stress. Although many factors were mentioned, the most frequently indicated stressors were associated with exposure to traumatic incidents such as major accidents or the suffering of others. Those who had previous experience with stress were more likely to rate current and future risk of stress as higher. Knowledge of existing organizational approaches to stress management was limited. The firefighters rated individual and informal sessions for dealing with stress as potentially more useful than the formal debriefing sessions now common in many emergency organizatins. Those who had previous experience with stress, however, were more likely to favour a formal organizational approach.