Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

马克思市民社会理论再析——马克思人类解放思想与我国和谐社会的建立

马克思市民社会理论是对黑格尔市民社会理论的批判与超越,其价值指向是人类解放。马克思的人类解放思想对我国目前创建社会主义和谐社会具有理论与实践的双重指导意义。     

浅论民办院校图书馆和谐人文环境的建设

随着我国教育的发展,尤其是一批民办高校成功升本以后,社会力量办学在我国教育界将越来越重要,但作为高校教学三大支柱之一的图书馆建设在民办高校建设中却相对滞后。民办高校图书馆应根据形势的变化和学校的发展战略,以人为本,从读者与馆员队伍两个方面出发,构建和谐的人文环境,以实现民办高校图书馆的可持续发展。     

供应链管理中的信息流网络

本文对供应链管理中的信息流理论进行了探讨 ,指出了传统链式信息流模式的缺陷 ,分析了简单的网络式信息流模型的构造 ;阐述了信息流网络的特征与优势 ;对若干有待深入研究的问题进行了展望。     

论网络社会秩序的维护

本文从网络社会秩序的范畴角度入手 ,分析了网络社会秩序维护的必要性 ,并就如何维护问题提出了相关的对策     

热力系统的经济评估

上海第四制药厂在抗生素生产过程系统节能技术研究中对该厂的热能供应系统提出了３个改造方案．本文以该热力系统为例,通过对各方案的技术经济分析比较,以揭示热力系统经济评估的内在含义,并提出了用参数“净年收益”作为评估依据之一的建议．     

面板数据的贝叶斯Elastic Net分位数回归方法及其应用研究

本文首次将Elastic Net这种用于高度相关变量的惩罚方法用于面板数据的贝叶斯分位数回归,并基于非对称Laplace先验分布推导所有参数的后验分布,进而构建Gibbs抽样。为了验证模型的有效性,本文将面板数据的贝叶斯Elastic Net分位数回归方法(BQR. EN)与面板数据的贝叶斯分位数回归方法(BQR)、面板数据的贝叶斯Lasso分位数回归方法(BLQR)、面板数据的贝叶斯自适应Lasso分位数回归方法(BALQR)进行了多种情形下的全方位比较,结果表明BQR. EN方法适用于具有高度相关性、数据维度很高和尖峰厚尾分布特征的数据。进一步地,本文就BQR. EN方法在不同扰动项假设、不同样本量的情形展开模拟比较,验证了新方法的稳健性和小样本特性。最后,本文选取互联网金融类上市公司经济增加值(EVA)作为实证研究对象,检验新方法在实际问题中的参数估计与变量选择能力,实证结果符合预期。     

乡村振兴战略下的农村公民道德建设

加强农村公民道德建设对于全面推进乡村振兴战略具有重要的时代价值,是实现“产业兴旺”的前提条件、“生态宜居”的有效举措、“乡风文明”的关键环节、“治理有效”的核心所在和“生活富裕”的基础保证。现代化进程中社会个体的崛起在增进广大农民现代性意识、促使农民群众走出传统的同时,也给农民的精神世界和道德认知带来新的挑战,农民的价值判断趋于多元、公共精神趋于式微、集体观念趋于弱化,基层党组织的引领作用发挥不够突出,农村公民道德建设面临着多元整合困境、公共性培育困境、价值取向困境和组织保障困境。新时代,应坚持用社会主义核心价值观引领农民,增进农民的价值共识,夯实农村公民道德建设的思想基础;发挥农民在乡村治理中的主体作用,培育农民的公共精神,夯实农村公民道德建设的社会基础;以乡村文化构筑新型乡村社会“共同体”,重塑农民的集体主义意识,夯实农村公民道德建设的文化基础;以提升组织力为主要目标,激发基层党组织的组织活力,夯实农村公民道德建设的组织基础。     

The arrival of critical citizens: decline of political trust and shifting public priorities in China

Political trust has been in decline in China. In this article, we capture this decline as reflecting the modernization of Chinese political culture. While the government managed to deliver a sustained period of rapid economic growth, the public's trust in it is diminishing through two mechanisms. On the one hand, Chinese citizens are acquiring stronger liberal democratic values, which make citizens more critical toward government institutions. On the other hand, changing political culture is also shown in the citizens’ shifting of their priorities toward the expansion of freedom and empowerment of citizens. Decades of socioeconomic modernization, therefore, meant that the era of critical citizens has arrived in China.     

河南经济增长的统计分析

以河南省1978年以来历年的生产总值为研究对象,从中原崛起的背景出发,简要说明了河南经济发展的现状及特点,分析了河南省生产总值的构成情况,通过与东部沿海发达省份进行比较,发现问题,针对分析出来的结果和存在的问题,找出原因并提出了推动河南经济增长的一些对策及建议。