Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long-run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA. Some policy implications are drawn for the Eurozone.     

户籍地禀赋与流入地融合 ——流动人口定居意愿影响因素研究

定居意愿是衡量流动人口转向稳定生活状态的重要指标,实则包含了居留意愿和落户意愿两方面的内容。基于2017年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测数据,通过建立多项Logistic回归模型的方法,重点从与制度结构相关的“户籍地禀赋”与“流入地融合”两个维度,分析流动人口“居留-落户”的定居意愿状况及其影响因素。研究结果表明,户籍地禀赋性因素的“回流”效应和流入地融合性因素的“拉动”效应对流动人口不同层面定居意愿的影响存在差异:与责任、情感、伦理相关的户籍地禀赋性因素以及与经济融入、社会与文化接纳相关的流入地融合性因素对流动人口居留意愿的影响比较显著;与财富价值相关的户籍地禀赋性因素以及与城乡区位相关的流入地融合性因素对流动人口落户意愿的影响比较显著;制度融入因素、生活融入因素、身份认同因素则对两个维度的定居意愿都产生了显著影响。因此,对于具有定居意愿的流动人口,政府应该努力实现基本公共服务的全覆盖,激发流动人口参与社会建设、增强对流入地的身份认同与文化接纳等融合水平;对于没有定居意愿的流动人口,也需为其“回流”后在户籍地的再次融入提供良好的制度保障环境。     

An investigation of the endowment effect in the context of a college housing lottery

The endowment effect was examined in a two-part study in the context of a college housing lottery. Students who were awarded their first choice of residence hall were asked the lowest dollar amount they would be willing to accept (WTA) to give up their first choice hall whereas students who were denied their first choice were asked the highest dollar amount they would be willing to pay (WTP) to obtain their first choice. Results from the initial assessment showed the presence of the endowment effect regarding students’ valuation of their first choice residence hall immediately after the housing lottery (i.e., WTA price was significantly higher than WTP price). The follow-up surveyed participants from the initial assessment who responded when contacted a second time after they had experienced two months of life in the residence hall they were awarded in the lottery. Results from the follow-up showed that the endowment effect was still present after experiencing life in the residence hall. Moreover, further analyses revealed that the endowment effect was, in fact, enhanced after the living experience. These findings demonstrate that within the context of a housing lottery, a highly-valued commodity, long-term experiences substantially increase the magnitude of the endowment effect, even when controlling for other factors that have been shown to impact this effect.     

浙江非公企业劳资矛盾与工会调节作用研究——基于农民工租住地工会的实证研究

随着社会经济的发展,非公有制经济对我国经济的贡献越来越大,非公有制企业的劳资关系问题也日益突出.今天的中国,尽管工会面临着种种困境,但工会的作用仍然很重要.当前迫切需要解决的是工会代表工人利益的有效性问题.农民工租住地工会通过组建工会的方式吸纳农民工精英进入工会管理层,并动员农民工参与社区的公共生活,逐渐使他们产生了“社区认同”,农民工管理发生了由社会被动防控与管理型向主动引导、服务、建设型的转变,由分割向融合的转变,破解工会在农民工集聚的地方如何组织管理与协调劳资矛盾,促成了社区的和谐与稳定.探讨市场经济条件下企业外工会力量的成长或许能为中国工会转型提供一些借鉴和帮助,为转型期创新社会管理提供有益探索.     

Some New Results on Likelihood Ratio Orderings for Spacings of Heterogeneous Exponential Random Variables

Let X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n be independent exponential random variables with X _i having failure rate λ _i for i = 1,…, n. Denote by D _i:n  = X _i:n  ? X _i?1:n the ith spacing of the order statistics X _1:n  ≤ X _2:n  ≤ ··· ≤ X _n:n , i = 1,…, n, where X _0:n ≡ 0. It is shown that if λ _n+1 ≤ [≥] λ _k for k = 1,…, n then D _n:n  ≤ _lr D _n+1:n+1 and D _1:n  ≤ _lr D _2:n+1 [D _2:n+1 ≤ _lr D _2:n ], and that if λ _i  + λ _j  ≥ λ _k for all distinct i,j, and k then D _n?1:n  ≤ _lr D _n:n and D _n:n+1 ≤ _lr D _n:n , where ≤ _lr denotes the likelihood ratio order. We also prove that D _1:n  ≤ _lr D _2:n for n ≥ 2 and D _2:3 ≤ _lr D _3:3 for all λ _i 's.     

Concomitants in a Sequence of Independent Nonidentically Distributed Random Vectors

ABSTRACT

Concomitants of order statistics are considered for the situation in which the random vectors (X ₁, Y ₁), (X ₂, Y ₂),…, (X _n , Y _n ) are independent but otherwise arbitrarily distributed. The joint and marginal distributions of the concomitants of order statistics and stochastic comparisons among the concomitants of order statistics are studied in this situation.     

Likelihood Ratio Order of m-Spacings in Multiple-Outlier Models

This article deals with the multiple-outlier exponential model. The likelihood ratio order between m-spacings of the combined sample is developed, some results extend the conclusions on simple spacings in Wen et al. (2007 Wen , S. , Lu , Q. , Hu , T. ( 2007 ). Likelihood ratio order of spacings of heterogeneous exponential random variables . J. Multivariate Anal. 98 : 743 – 756 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

珠江三角洲刑事犯罪人、被害人的人口特征分析

本文以珠江三角洲某特大城市的一个区2004年全年所发生的2180个有效特大刑事案件的资料为载体,探讨了刑事犯罪人和被害人在性别、户籍构成以及案件类型上所存在的差异,进而提出了犯罪行为中的“树大招风”现象和“社会分层”现象,并做了进一步的探讨。     

长期外出流动人口的养老境遇:基于停留预期与社保参与状况的分析

流动人口的社会保障问题一直以来备受社会各界的广泛关注。本文运用国家人口计生委2010年实施的106个城市流动人口监测调查数据,对停留在流入城市达10年及以上的流动人口这一最先迈入老龄阶段的群体,就其人口社会特征和停留预期与养老境遇进行重点分析。总体而言,长期外出流动人口显示有长期停留之预期,但社会保险的参与状况却令人堪忧。此外,不同人口社会特征的长期外出流动人口,其长期停留预期和社保参与状况存在一定差别。     

户籍迁移人口与区域经济发展的相关性——以福建省为例

依据福建省2007年有关人口数据,选取户籍迁移和区域经济发展等指标,对户籍迁移人口与区域经济发展的相关性进行研究,并分析其中不同类型户籍迁移人口对区域经济发展影响作用的差异。研究发现,户籍迁入对区域经济发展呈正相关,省内迁入作用显著于省外迁入,而省外迁出产生的资金回流对流出地的区域经济发展具有一定的正向作用。