中国近年来消费需求增长乏力的原因探析

消费需求增长乏力是近年来我国宏观经济面临的突出问题,这是居民消费能力、消费动力和消费环境三方面因素共同作用的结果。首先,居民收入增加与GDP增长不同步导致居民消费能力有限,而收入差距不断拉大则引起消费能力分配失衡;其次,未来收入和支出的预期不稳定、消费信贷制度滞后等在很大程度上降低了居民消费动力;最后,相关配套体制和设施不健全、与市场经济不协调的消费习惯等也都影响了消费需求的增加。     

Herd behavior and the quality of opinions

This paper analyzes a decentralized decision model by adding some inertia in the social leaning process. Before making a decision, an agent can observe the group opinion in a society. Social learning can result in a variety of equilibrium behavioral patterns. For insufficient ranges of quality (precision) of opinions, the chosen stationary state is unique and globally accessible, in which all agents adopt the superior action. Sufficient quality of opinions gives rise to multiple stationary states. One of them will be characterized by inefficient herding. The confidence in the majority opinion then has serious welfare consequences.     

论西方政治哲学的理想社会观

本文以马克思主义理想社会观对西方政治哲学的理想社会观进行了评析,认为西方政治哲学的价值理性主义和人文主义是构建理想社会的政治思维,理想社会体现了智性主义和人文主义的政治传统,理想社会建构关注财产关系的安排,制度主义是西方政治哲学理想社会的生长点.     

转型期实现内外均衡的政策搭配研究

中国在入世后的10年左右 ,正处于转型经济中。应该通过调节社会总需求、社会总供给等政策工具 ,实现合理搭配 ,以达到中国宏观经济的内外均衡     

财政幻觉假说的实证检验

财政幻觉假说是公共选择理论下解释政府规模增长的理论之一。依据财政幻觉假说的经验方程，将“财政幻觉”分解为“赤字幻觉”与“预期幻觉”，以中国1978～2004年的年度数据，采用邹氏转折点检验、协整分析和误差修正模型，对“财政幻觉”与政府规模增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，“财政幻觉”是中国政府规模增长的原因之一，其中“赤字幻觉”的存在未得到显著证实，但“预期幻觉”对政府规模有正的显著影响。     

Improving Africa's Roads: Modelling Infrastructure Investment and Its Effect on Sectoral Production Behaviour

Given the scarce resources for public investment in developing countries, policy analysis should include a detailed perspective on the effects of infrastructure. This article develops a modelling framework for analysing the effects of improved road infrastructure on the economy of African countries. The theoretical framework is tested empirically and used for simulations in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and the effects on production and welfare are analysed. The model also serves to investigate the effect of roads on the economic participation of rural households.     

Exponentiality test based on Renyi distance between equilibrium distributions

ABSTRACT

On the basis of Csiszar's φ-divergence discrimination information, we propose a measure of discrepancy between equilibriums associated with two distributions. Proving that a distribution can be characterized by associated equilibrium distribution, a Renyi distance of the equilibrium distributions is constructed that made us to propose an EDF-based goodness-of-fit test for exponential distribution. For comparing the performance of the proposed test, some well-known EDF-based tests and some entropy-based tests are considered. Based on the simulation results, the proposed test has better powers than those of competing entropy-based tests for the alternatives with decreasing hazard rate function. The use of the proposed test is evaluated in an illustrative example.     

理性极限及其突破断想

思维具有历史的特征.而理性思维只是人类思维的一个阶段.因此,理性思维及与之相对应的理性哲学都无法超越自身的历史局限.理性哲学缺失与当下生活的对应的根本原因就在于理性极限.而理性的偏见与虚妄的悲剧价值预设正是这种极限的表现.打破理性极限的前提是将理性还原于历史中并具体列出突破理性哲学的叙述方案.     

A Theory of Rational Choice under Ignorance

This paper contributes to a theory of rational choice for decision-makers with incomplete preferences due to partial ignorance, whose beliefs are representable as sets of acceptable priors. We focus on the limiting case of `Complete Ignorance' which can be viewed as reduced form of the general case of partial ignorance. Rationality is conceptualized in terms of a `Principle of Preference-Basedness', according to which rational choice should be isomorphic to asserted preference. The main result characterizes axiomatically a new choice-rule called `Simultaneous Expected Utility Maximization'. It can be interpreted as agreement in a bargaining game (Kalai-Smorodinsky solution) whose players correspond to the (extremal) `acceptable priors' among which the decision maker has suspended judgment. An essential but non-standard feature of Simultaneous Expected Utility choices is their dependence on the entire choice set. This is justified by the conception of optimality as compromise rather than as superiority in pairwise comparisons.     

20世纪70年代后中美关系发展模式研究

文章分析了近三十多年的中美关系发展的历程,从中归纳出中美关系的发展大约遵循着合作(大起)、对立(大落)和妥协这一互相交错和在反复循环中前进的模式,进而从中美两国外交思想方面对之进行分析,并从国际预期理论方面进行探究,从而验证了中美关系这一发展模式.