刘劭“辩难’’思想探析

在"辩即逻辑"的传统研究模式中,刘劭的"辩难"思想没有得到应有的重视和研究。在《人物志.材理》中,刘劭深入探讨了"辩难"的实质、目的,提出了"辩难"的五种方法,讨论了辩论者的素质问题,其中的许多论述至今仍具有现实指导意义。     

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization

We consider approximate inference in hybrid Bayesian Networks (BNs) and present a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretization with robust propagation algorithms on junction trees. Our approach offers a significant extension to Bayesian Network theory and practice by offering a flexible way of modeling continuous nodes in BNs conditioned on complex configurations of evidence and intermixed with discrete nodes as both parents and children of continuous nodes. Our algorithm is implemented in a commercial Bayesian Network software package, AgenaRisk, which allows model construction and testing to be carried out easily. The results from the empirical trials clearly show how our software can deal effectively with different type of hybrid models containing elements of expert judgment as well as statistical inference. In particular, we show how the rapid convergence of the algorithm towards zones of high probability density, make robust inference analysis possible even in situations where, due to the lack of information in both prior and data, robust sampling becomes unfeasible.     

Bounds to Memory Loss

If we express our knowledge in sentences, we will find that these sentences are linked in complex patterns governed by our observations and our inferences from these observations. These inferences are to a large extent driven by logical rules. We ask whether the structure logic imposes on our knowledge restricts what we forget and what we remember. The model is a two period S5 logic. In this logic, we propose a memory loss operator: the agent forgets a sentence pif and only if he knows pat time 1 and he does not know pat time 2. Equipped with the operator, we prove theorems on the relation between knowledge and memory loss. The main results point to classes of formulas that an agent cannot forget, and classes of formulas he must forget. A desirable feature is that most results hold in the S4 logic. The results illustrate bounds to memory loss, and thus to bounded rationality. We apply the model to single-agent conventions: conventions made between an agent and himself.     

困境与超越：反思性道德教育探究

高校道德教育陷入实效性不强的现实困境,根源于对道德目的、道德本质和道德教育方法的误读。在多元价值并存、道德冲突和道德争论普遍存在的现代社会,高校道德教育应当超越道德认知阶段,从传统的规范性、知识性道德教育向反思性道德教育转变,构建以社会主义核心价值体系为指导的道德推理课程体系,在道德教育过程中,尊重道德内化规律,进行探究式教学,注重道德思维能力和实践能力的培养。     

How was a national moving and handling people guideline intended to work? The underlying programme theory

In healthcare, moving and handling people (MHP) often cause musculoskeletal disorders. To prevent musculoskeletal disorders due to MHP, many national evidence-based guidelines have been developed. However, little is known about how these guidelines were intended to work, i.e. their ‘programme theory’, how implementation by intended users is influenced by contextual factors and mechanisms to produce outcomes. This paper identifies the programme theory of a national MHP guideline (MHPG) using thematic analysis of the MHPG document, three organisational planning documents, and interviews with MHPG developers. The analysis identified the intended users of the MHPG as health and safety managers and MHP coordinators. The programme theory comprised contextual factors, potentially hindering (e.g. budget constraints) or facilitating (e.g. changing demographics) implementation, being influenced by mechanisms mainly based on ethical (quality of care, evidence-based practices), and economic reasoning (reducing cost of MHP, return on investment) to reduce injuries caused by MHP – the intended outcome.     

复杂性思维方式和辩证逻辑

复杂性思维方式是一个多中心的开放的系统,辩证逻辑构成它的一个基本方面。辩证逻辑有维持＂反题＂和达到＂合题＂两种表现形态,它们分别关系到思维形式上的复杂性和思维内容上的复杂性。在辩证逻辑的后一种表现形态中呈现出复杂性思维方式与形式逻辑接合的典型方式：认识中出现的思维形式的矛盾反映了思维内容的矛盾,迫使认识主体改造思维内容;在通过非演绎的溯因推理创设新的元认识前提从而克服思维内容的矛盾之后,原有的思维形式上的复杂性就化解为更高层次的思维内容上的复杂性。复杂性思维方式作为辩证逻辑与简单性思维方式作为形式逻辑相比较而存在,而且前者作为一个动态的认识发展过程,把后者作为一个必要成分包含在自身之中。     

"侔式推理"解构

"侔式推理"是"墨辩逻辑学"的一个重要概念."侔"是推理、反推理和非推理的大杂烩,"侔"的定义即"比辞而俱行",就是各种"侔"的共同的语言形式或修辞特征的概括,"侔"的内涵属于语言学或修辞学而非逻辑学,"侔"的外延与推理有交叉关系而非种属关系."侔式推理"是对"侔"的过度诠释的产物,所谓"侔式推理"的形式和规则纯属误解和臆造.     

基于CBR的化妆品销售组合预测模型

预测是销售企业面临的至关重要的问题,预测精度会直接影响到企业的利润及长远发展。考虑到化妆品销售独特的生命周期特点,提出基于案例推理技术的化妆品销售组合预测模型。基于案例推理技术能够弥补短生命周期产品数据不足的问题,根据"最相似"产品的数据对目标产品属性进行推理计算,既提高了预测精度,又便于实际操作。在此基础上,提出了改进的BASS模型及季节性趋势增长模型,充分考虑数据序列波动的季节性、趋势性及其完整的生命周期特征。为了进一步提高预测精度,提出AFTER-GA组合预测算法,并添加PSOWv-SVM模型作为组合预测的模型之一,利用模型处理外界影响因素的能力,使得各模型取长补短,更有效地突出各模型的优势,从而取得更精确的预测结果。实例分析表明,AFTER-GA组合预测算法在精度上要明显优于其他方法;基于CBR的组合预测模型在化妆品销售预测方面,能够达到令人满意的精度要求,具有实际应用价值。     

Applications of a general propagation algorithm for probabilistic expert systems

A probabilistic expert system provides a graphical representation of a joint probability distribution which can be used to simplify and localize calculations. Jensenet al. (1990) introduced a flow-propagation algorithm for calculating marginal and conditional distributions in such a system. This paper analyses that algorithm in detail, and shows how it can be modified to perform other tasks, including maximization of the joint density and simultaneous fast retraction of evidence entered on several variables.     

Virtue Ethics for Social Work: A New Pedagogy for Practical Reasoning

Virtue ethics has begun to regain popularity among philosophers, and recent commentators have expressed enthusiasm vis-à-vis its appropriateness and strengths in the task of practising ethically in social work. Notwithstanding this growing interest in adopting virtue ethics frameworks, some difficulties arise when the question of how to develop social work virtues is posed. By examining the concept of reflective practice, and building from the work of Alasdair MacIntyre, this article explores how practical reasoning as a collective activity can help social work students in their moral development by developing and nurturing appropriate virtues for social work. A combination of Socratic dialogue activities, lectures and seminar work is highlighted as a potential pedagogical approach to teaching ethics and values on an undergraduate social work module at Coventry University. The approach is then appraised in the light of a set of module evaluation questionnaires distributed to students who undertook the module during the academic year 2006–2007.