Geeta distribution and its properties

A new discrete distribution defined over all the positive integers and with the name of Geeta distribution is described. It is L-shaped like the logarithmic series distribution, Yule distribution and the discrete Pareto distribution but is far more versatile than them as it has two parameters. It belongs to the classes of location parameter distributions, modified power series distributions, Lagrange series distributions and exponential distributions. Its mean fi, variance a2 and two recurrence formulae for higher central moments are obtained. Convolution theorem and variations in the model with changes in the parameters have been considered. ML estimators, MVU estimators and estimators based of mean and variance and on mean and first frequency have been derived.     

Order statistics from the linear-exponential distribution,part I: increasing hazard rate case

For the linear-exponential distribution with increasing hazard rate, exact and explicit expressions for means, product moments and percentage points of order statistics are obtained. Some recurrence relations for both single and product moments of order statistics are also derived. These recurrence relations would enable one to obtain all the higher order moments of order statistics for all sample sizes from those of the lower order     

Relations for Moments of Progressively Type-II Censored Order Statistics from Log-Logistic Distribution with Applications to Inference

In this article, we establish several recurrence relations for the single and product moments of progressively Type-II right censored order statistics from a log-logistic distribution. The use of these relations in a systematic recursive manner would enable the computation of all the means, variances and covariances of progressively Type-II right censored order statistics from the log-logistic distribution for all sample sizes n, effective sample sizes m, and all progressive censoring schemes (R ₁,…, R _m ). The results established here generalize the corresponding results for the usual order statistics due to Balakrishnan and Malik (1987 Balakrishnan , N. , Malik , H. J. ( 1987 ). Moments of order statistics from truncated log-logistic distribution . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 17 : 251 – 267 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Balakrishnan et al. (1987 Balakrishnan , N. , Malik , H. J. , Puthenpura , S. ( 1987 ). Best linear unbiased estimation of location and scale parameters of the log-logistic distribution . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 16 : 3477 – 3495 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The moments so determined are then utilized to derive best linear unbiased estimators for the scale- and location-scale log-logistic distributions. A comparison of these estimates with the maximum likelihood estimates is made through Monte Carlo simulation. The best linear unbiased predictors of progressively censored failure times is then discussed briefly. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

Progressive type II censored order statistics from exponential distributions

In the model of progressive type II censoring, point and interval estimation as well as relations for single and product moments are considered. Based on two-parameter exponential distributions, maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators (UMVUEs) and best linear unbiased estimators (BLUEs) are derived for both location and scale parameters. Some properties of these estimators are shown. Moreover, results for single and product moments of progressive type II censored order statistics are presented to obtain recurrence relations from exponential and truncated exponential distributions. These relations may then be used to compute all the means, variances and covariances of progressive type II censored order statistics based on exponential distributions for arbitrary censoring schemes. The presented recurrence relations simplify those given by Aggarwala and Balakrishnan (1996)     

Recurrence relations for moments of progressively censored order statistics from logistic distribution with applications to inference

In this paper, we establish several recurrence relations for the single and product moments of progressively Type-II right censored order statistics from a logistic distribution. The use of these relations in a systematic manner allows us to compute all the means, variances and covariances of progressively Type-II right censored order statistics from the logistic distribution for all sample sizes n, effective sample sizes m, and all progressive censoring schemes (R₁,…,R_m). The results established here generalize the corresponding results for the usual order statistics due to [Shah, 1966] and [Shah, 1970]. These moments are then utilized to derive best linear unbiased estimators of the location and scale parameters of the logistic distribution. A comparison of these estimators with the maximum likelihood estimations is then made. The best linear unbiased predictors of censored failure times are briefly discussed. Finally, an illustrative example is presented.     

《历史的观念》要义新诠——柯林伍德的历史哲学二题

本文立足当代学术环境 ,重评柯林伍德历史哲学的价值和意义。文中认为 :“一切历史都是思想史”是一个富有原创性的重要命题 ,它反驳了实证学派将史学自然科学化的理论偏失 ,揭示了文明史独具的人文特质 ,并以其“深刻的片面”启迪我们反思国内史学长期存在的某些客观主义倾向的流弊。柯氏的“重演论”集西方史学直觉主义体验论之大成 ,并作更详尽精微的阐发 ,是对史家普遍思维模式和学术实践的理论抽象和概括 ,并开启现代诠释学理论先河 ,其方法论意义不可低估。但他将此视为惟一方法论原则 ,无疑是不足为训的     

A discrete probability problem in card shuffling

Abstract

There are n cards serially numbered from 1 to n. The cards are shuffled and placed in a line one after the other on top of a table with faces up. The numbers on the faces are read from left to right. If there are consecutive numbers in increasing order of magnitude the corresponding cards are merged into one. After the merger, the cards are numbered serially from one to whatever the number of cards we now have. The cards are shuffled and placed in a line one after another on top of the table with faces up. The process continues until we have only one card left. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic recurrence relation approach to obtain the mean, variance, and distribution of the number of shuffles needed. A Markov chain formulation and its properties are discussed in the paper as well.     

Recurrence relations for single and product moments of order statistics from a generalized half logistic distribution with applications to inference

In this paper, we derive several recurrence relations satisfied by the single and product moments of order statistics from a generalized half logistic distribution. These generalize the corresponding results for the half logistic distribution established by Balakrishnan (1985). The relations established in this paper will enable one to compute the single and product moments of all order statistics for all sample sizes in a simple recursive manner; this may be done for any choice of the shape parameter k. These moments can then be used to determine the best linear unbiased estimators of location and scale parameters from complete as well as Type-I1 censored samples.     

Risk factors and services for child maltreatment among infants and young children

Objectives

Child maltreatment (CM) causes injury in large numbers of U.S. children. This study uses a large, multi-state dataset of child protective services reports for infants and young children under five years of age to examine risk factors and the effects of services in confirmed maltreatment investigations and recurrence over five years.

Methods

The Child Files of the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) for 2003-2007 were used to study confirmed CM reports to child protective services (CPS) using regression models and survival analysis among a cohort of children first reported during 2003.

Results

There were 1.2 million confirmed maltreatment reports to state child protective services agencies in 22 states during 2003-2007 in NCANDS, including 177,568 infants and young children under five years. 19.3% had a second confirmed CM report within 5 years. White race, inadequate housing and receiving public assistance were associated with significantly increased risk of CM recurrence. Infants and young children received more services and had less recurrence than did older children.

Conclusions

Infants and young children have different risk factors and receive different services than do older children in the CPS system. We need additional research to further assess and better target services for the special needs of infants, young children and their families if we are to protect them and reduce future child maltreatment.     

Recurrence relations for moments of record values from generalized extreme value distribution

In this paper some recurrence relations between the moments of record values from the generalized extreme value distribution are established. It is shown that using these recurrence relations, all the single and product moments of all record values can be obtained in a simple recursive manner.