建国50多年来中国外交的基本特征论析

建国50多年来,中国共产党三代领导集体在中国外交政策和策略等方面,表现了相当的一致性。在这些方面,后一代领导集体与前一代领导集体之间有着承继关系。当然,后一代领导集体也有新的重大的发展。其实,这种一致性衬托了当代中国外交的基本特征,或者说,形成了当代中国外交的传统。文章基于对50多年来中国外交的分析,归纳出中国外交的四个基本特征,这就是外交原则和政策的一贯性、外交目标的双重性、外交形式的多样性以及外交对象的层次性。     

泰乐松注射液的毒理学试验研究

为提供泰乐松注射液的安全性毒理学评价资料,本试验采用改进Karber法测定小鼠LD_(50);以剂量递增法测定小鼠蓄积性和耐受性;分别以剂量340、130、30mg／kg为3个试验组．设阴性和阳性对照组进行小鼠骨髓微核试验;分别以剂量500、250、120mg／kg为3个剂量组．设阴性和阳性对照组进行小鼠精于畸形试验。结果表明：其LD_(50)为669．80mg／kg,蓄积系数大于5．3,无明显蓄积毒性和耐受性（P＞0．05）,小鼠骨髓微核试验和精子畸形试验结果均为阴性。     

Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

The study demonstrates the key role of expenditure policies in explaining fiscal developments during EMU in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries. It compares actual primary expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. Moreover, the implications for debt trends are calculated. Results show that all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies already before the crisis. Consequently, expenditure and debt paths were much higher compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Rule-based expenditure policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. An empirical analysis of the determinants of countries’ expenditure stance confirms the need for stronger fiscal rules and institutions in the euro area.     

一种混合建模方法及其在ETF期权定价中的应用

科学合理的交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）期权定价有利于充分发挥其风险对冲功能,也是一个需要准确掌握市场规律并兼顾经济学意义的复杂建模过程。本文提出了一种新的混合建模方法,将嵌套长短时记忆神经网络模型（NLSTM）与Heston模型结合,实现ETF期权定价偏差的动态修正,并基于华夏上证50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF和华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF的高频期权数据,实验验证了所提方法的有效性。研究结果表明,不同类型ETF期权价格的波动特征差异显著,无论是基于BS定价模型还是Heston定价模型都难以准确刻画ETF期权价格的复杂变化规律。通过将NLSTM神经网络模型与Heston模型结合,能够有效地捕捉不同类型ETF期权的动态变化规律,从而提升ETF期权定价的准确性。     

20世纪50年代新诗对后期延安诗歌的“继承”

20世纪50年代新诗在“继承”后期延安诗歌创作资源过程中,呈现的内容是多样化的.除体制、队伍、生产与接受之外,风格与形式的相应延续,也在很大程度上影响到了50年代新诗的面貌.但无论就时代还是区域范围的差异,“继承”只是一个相对的概念.50年代新诗在自身发展过程中一直有自己的潜在内容,而其被“简约”的过程,正是历史延续过程中的复杂化部分.     

Controlling health care costs: An evaluation of strategies

There has been much discussion about the factors underlying inflation in the health care sector and the means to moderate increases in health expenditures. This paper identifies various costcontainment strategies and synthesizes research findings that may be helpful in evaluating their effectiveness. The review demonstrates the complexity of the issues and relationships that must be confronted and understood in cost containment. The delivery system is shown to be not well-suited to improving efficiency and restraining health care expenditure. Any single strategy, whether it involves restructuring the market or more direct regulation, cannot in itself accomplish the combination of expenditure control and adequacy of services that is socially desirable. A number of mutually reinforcing strategies are required. Finally, more empirical and analytical information on incentives, provider and regulatory decisionmaking, costs of regulation, and the dynamics of negotiation, is essential for the design of an effective costcontainment program.     

Optimality and bias of some interpolation and extrapolation designs

We consider interpolation and extrapolation designs with controlled bias. A consistent estimate of an upper bound of the bias is presented. The estimate of some extrapolated value is obtained in a two-stage procedure. The first one provides an estimate of some interpolated value. The second one uses a Taylor expansion around this point. This procedure yields a new type of designs. We discuss their optimality properties with respect to the variance and the bias.     

上证50股票价值的综合评价

采用主成分分析法对上证50的全部50家上市公司的股票价值进行综合评价。首先从这50家上市公司2005年度的财务报表数据中选取十一个重要指标作为基础,利用主成分分析法加以处理,合并为三个主成分,代入综合评价函数得到这50家上市公司股票的综合得分和综合排名;再对标准化的各因素指标的权重作进一步的讨论,最终得出这50家上市公司股票的综合排名。     

沪深300股指期货套期保值效率度量研究--基于沪深300 ETF的实证分析

基于沪深300股指期货真实交易数据,选取对指数拟合程度高且可交易的沪深300ETF为现货研究对象,运用静态套期保值比率估计模型（OLS、B-VAR、VECM）和动态套期保值比率估计模型（VECM-BGARCH、DBEKK-GARCH、DCC-GARCH、NormCopula-GARCH、tCopula-GARCH）对最优套期保值比率进行估计,并对规避风险效果进行比较。结果表明：无论在样本内期间和样本外期间中,各模型反映出的沪深300股指期货套期保值效率都较高,考虑期货与现货市场动态相关性的NormCopula-GARCH 模型套期保值效果最优。     

Allometric Scaling: Analysis of LD50 Data

The need to identify toxicologically equivalent doses across different species is a major issue in toxicology and risk assessment. In this article, we investigate interspecies scaling based on the allometric equation applied to the single, oral LD ₅₀ data previously analyzed by Rhomberg and Wolff.⁽ 1 ⁾ We focus on the statistical approach, namely, regression analysis of the mentioned data. In contrast to Rhomberg and Wolff's analysis of species pairs, we perform an overall analysis based on the whole data set. From our study it follows that if one assumes one single scaling rule for all species and substances in the data set, then β= 1 is the most natural choice among a set of candidates known in the literature. In fact, we obtain quite narrow confidence intervals for this parameter. However, the estimate of the variance in the model is relatively high, resulting in rather wide prediction intervals.