Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

如何规划“职业教育城”用地面积——以广州教育城为例

在规划职业教育城建设的用地面积时,要了解城市现有职业教育的基本情况,测算未来年份有多少生源需要入读职业院校、现有和未来所需要的技工在数量和结构上的差距、未来年份职业院校应该培养出多少技工,以此推算院校应有的规模,进而确定院校的用地面积。     

1998年狮子座流星暴的一些预测

1998年狮子座流星暴是本年度最重要的天象之一。而广东省处于观测的最有利位置,为了不错过这次十分难得的机会,本文叙述了狮子座流量暴的本质及其观测工作的意义,求出了该流星暴母体的部分轨道根数;对1998年狮子座流星暴作了一些预测;对观测方法提出了一些建议,本次预测虽用的是天文专业的方法,但为了使更多的观测员理解,本文尽可能使用最基础的知识。     

《呼啸山庄》“火”“土”“风暴”之象征意蕴

《呼啸山庄》中"火"元素代表女主人公凯瑟琳是一颗狂热、执着且具有自我牺牲精神的不安宁的火种,"土"元素代表男主人公希刺克利夫是一位冷峻、坚忍的荒原骄子,"风暴"象征关乎男女主人公命运的剧变。凯瑟琳用尽全部生命力量为希刺克利夫燃烧,使希刺克利夫逐渐在上层社会获得一席之地。二人虽历经波折、罹苦,却最终获得灵魂的永恒相伴。     

中国古代潮灾综合研究中的几点思考

对古代潮灾进行综合研究,有利于全面了解潮灾,也可作为案例说明灾害综合研究的重要性。笔者在多年的研究中提出如下几点思考:①潮灾主要是风暴潮,但风暴潮灾也常与天文潮、暴涨潮有关。②中国古代大地震不少,所以地震海啸不应是太少的。有4种潮灾史料可能与地震海啸有关。③古代潮灾预报均是综合预报。③海塘、潮田虽与海洋有关,实为陆地农业服务。⑤观潮文化与潮灾文化密切相连。⑥潮灾史与潮灾学史是自然史与认识史的关系。     

内蒙古包头市突厥鲁尼文查干敖包铭文考释——兼论后突厥汗国“黑沙南庭”之所在

在内蒙古包头市达尔罕茂明安联合旗发现的突厥鲁尼文查干敖包铭文,是内蒙古迄今发现的唯一的突厥鲁尼文文献史料.根据查干敖包铭文的发现地点及其印记,可推断该铭文应属于后突厥汗国可汗家族阿史那氏的旁系家族,纪年约在7世纪末至8世纪初,极有可能为迄今发现的最早的突厥鲁尼文文献史料.结合汉籍史料和笔者的田野调查,可推断后突厥汗国的“黑沙南庭”即为达茂旗一带的草原.而查干敖包铭文,则印证笔者有关“黑沙南庭”的这一推论不误.     

国际货物贸易中出口企业的风险防范——全球金融风暴视野中的法律对策

全球金融危机的肆虐对国际货物贸易安全构成了极大威胁,尤其是对于出口方的威胁更大.我国作为一个出口大国,出口企业应充分利用国际、国内法律规则防范出口风险.同时,还应正确评估进口国的政策风险,及时掌控汇率变动情况,把出口企业的风险降到最低程度.     

A Solar-Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a solar-centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near-Earth interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time-independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions of the observed CME speeds. Using these results, we then obtain the probability that the velocity of a CME exceeds a particular threshold by extrapolation. We conclude that about 1.72% of the CMEs recorded with SOHO LASCO arrive at the Earth over the time both data sets overlap (November 1996 to September 2017). Then, assuming that 1.72% of all CMEs pass the Earth, we can obtain a first-order estimate of the probability of an extreme space weather event on Earth. To estimate the probability over the next decade of a CME, we fit a Poisson distribution to the complementary cumulative distribution function. We inferred a decadal probability of between 0.01 and 0.09 for an event of at least the size of the large 2012 event, and a probability between 0.0002 and 0.016 for the size of the 1859 Carrington event.     

西域沙原上的土著歌手——谈刘亮程散文的艺术品格

刘亮程的散文以独特的视角抒写了他对人生和自然的感悟。通过对一个“村庄”的不厌其烦的描绘,诉说万物生灵的生存状态,表现他对于大千世界天人合一、等物齐观的思想认识。他以自己的故土为立足点,以儿童的眼光和情怀叙述故事,别开生面,又别具特色。     

走向经典的《惊沙》战争叙事简

西路军大文学叙事始于相关参战人员的个人回忆录,如《星火燎原》（第三辑）所载程世才《血战河西走廊》及《历史的结论》、秦基伟《苦战临泽》、周纯麟《最后几匹战马》、戴克林《回到党的怀抱》等,文字朴实无华,但史料价值极高。1980年代以来,吴贻弓《姐姐》、张勇手《祁连山的回声》、孙清国《红流》、董玲《西风烈》等西路军影视叙事作品相继问世,其主要不足在于以揭秘为讨巧、卖弄、说教、故事老套、语言机械、喻示表浅、效果失真、人物内涵不足、情节节奏缓慢等。2011年,安战军执导的《惊沙》以《苦战临泽》为史料基础,以“最普遍的寓言”方式展开西路军征战叙事。本片人物俊朗,语言深刻简练,动作干净利落,节奏张弛合度,已基本具备战争影视叙事的经典大片品格。