Modeling cooperation among self-interested agents: a critique

This paper reviews recent attempts to model cooperation in groups of self-interested unrelated individuals. It concludes that no empirically plausible model has been developed, and the economist's quest for an explanation of human prosociality in terms of self-interested agents has not been successful. We show that the equilibrium criteria employed in standard game-theoretic models have no attractive dynamic properties, and the mechanisms deployed in these models are not generally seen in empirical examples of cooperative groups. We also show that these models are not robust to plausible rates of signaling error and mutation. We present an alternative, involving strongly reciprocal agents, that satisfies all the requirements for a dynamically stable model of cooperation.     

Women's employment decisions in Malaysia: Does religion matter?

Religion may influence female employment decisions because different religions specify different life styles. This study investigates whether religion is a significant determinant of married and single women's paid-work and full-time employment in Malaysia. Using the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey and a sequential logit approach, this paper finds that religion is less influential in urban areas than in rural areas.     

The repeated public goods game: A solution using Tit-for-Tat and the Lindahl point

This paper demonstrates how a repeated public goods problem may be solved by using Tit-for-Tat (TFT) on the Lindahl point. The general solution is developed; geometric and numerical examples are offered.I wish to thank an anonymous reviewer for very helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

古代突厥语民族的民间竞技与游戏——以《突厥语大词典》和《福乐智慧》为例

文章主要收集了《突厥语大词典》和《福乐智慧》中的民间竞技与游戏的语言材料,通过古代突厥语民族的赛马、射箭、马球、达瓦孜、投掷等体育竞技与游戏,试图再现他们当时的社会生活概貌。     

Boundary Spaces

While shows like The X-Files and 24 have merged conspiracy theories with popular science (fictions), some video games have been pushing the narrative even further. Electronic Art's Majestic game was released in July 2001 and quickly generated media buzz with its unusual multi-modal gameplay. Mixing phone calls, faxes, instant messaging, real and "fake' websites, and email, the game provides a fascinating case of an attempt at new directions for gaming communities. Through story, mode of playing, and use of technology, Majestic highlights the uncertain status of knowledge, community and self in a digital age; at the same time, it allows examination of alternative ways of understanding games' role and purpose in the larger culture. Drawing on intricate storylines involving government conspiracies, techno-bio warfare, murder and global terror, players were asked to solve mysteries in the hopes of preventing a devastating future of domination. Because the game drew in both actual and Majestic-owned/-designed websites, it constantly pushed those playing the game right to borders where simulation collides with " factuality'. Given the wide variety of "legitimate' conspiracy theory, alien encounters and alternative science web pages, users often could not distinguish when they were leaving the game's pages and venturing into " real' World Wide Web sites. Its further use of AOL's instant messenger system, in which gamers spoke not only to bots but to other players, pushed users to evaluate constantly both the status of those they were talking to and the information being provided. Additionally, the game required players to occupy unfamiliar subject positions, ones where agency was attenuated, and which subsequently generated a multi-layered sense of unease among players. This mix of authentic and staged information in conjunction with technologically mediated roles highlights what are often seen as phenomenon endemic to the Internet itself; that is, the destabilization of categories of knowing, relating, and being.     

Data skeletons: simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive streaming datasets with applications to density estimation

We consider the problem of density estimation when the data is in the form of a continuous stream with no fixed length. In this setting, implementations of the usual methods of density estimation such as kernel density estimation are problematic. We propose a method of density estimation for massive datasets that is based upon taking the derivative of a smooth curve that has been fit through a set of quantile estimates. To achieve this, a low-storage, single-pass, sequential method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive datasets that form the basis of this method of density estimation. For comparison, we also consider a sequential kernel density estimator. The proposed methods are shown through simulation study to perform well and to have several distinct advantages over existing methods.     

Far-sighted equilibria in 2 × 2, non-cooperative,repeated games

Consider a two-person simultaneous-move game in strategic form. Suppose this game is played over and over at discrete points in time. Suppose, furthermore, that communication is not possible, but nevertheless we observe some regularity in the sequence of outcomes. The aim of this paper is to provide an explanation for the question why such regularity might persist for many (i.e., infinite) periods.Each player, when contemplating a deviation, considers a sequential-move game, roughly speaking of the following form: if I change my strategy this period, then in the next my opponent will take his strategy b and afterwards I can switch to my strategy a, but then I am worse off since at that outcome my opponent has no incentive to change anymore, whatever I do. Theoretically, however, there is no end to such reaction chains. In case that deviating by some player gives him less utility in the long run than before deviation, we say that the original regular sequence of outcomes is far-sighted stable for that player. It is a far-sighted equilibrium if it is far-sighted stable for both players.     

人际信任的自我削弱与熟人社会变迁

接续阶层分化的研究路径,从农民互惠博弈内生视角出发,构建"人际信任-熟人社会"的分析框架,以揭示熟人社会变迁的微观动力机制。研究认为,小农经济的生产形态与农耕文明时期低社会生产力水平以致农民长期面临生存威胁之间的张力,催生了广布于乡村社会的互惠网络,农民人际信任的自我增强与经济互助及道德声誉制度的自我实施相互作用,生成并维系传统熟人社会及其发展。市场性的输入以经济分化和农民离村为着力点打破了这一继替格局。农民摆脱生存威胁后,其互惠付出意愿降低,进而影响博弈双方的行为选择。当信任的自我削弱使农民的制度化信念发生质变时,熟人社会逐步解体趋势难以逆转。流动性社会中,基于连接性社会网络建立新型农村社区,是乡村社会发展的重要方向。     

Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities

This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).     

大学生足球运动损伤的调查分析

运用调查法了解学生在足球运动中损伤情况,并提出相应的预防措施。