哈桑·图拉比与苏丹的"伊斯兰试验"

哈桑.图拉比的宗教政治思想充满了理想主义色彩,主张社会伊斯兰化,强调“真主主权论”,否定民族主义,否定国家权威,主张开放与对话,倡导宗教对话。其领导的伊斯兰民族阵线审时度势,相机而动,在苏丹的两度军人政权中推动国家的伊斯兰化。由于国内外的诸多影响因素以及图拉比在理论与实践、理想与现实之间充满的矛盾,图拉比与军人政权的结盟在本质上仍是权力斗争的需要。要实现苏丹政治稳定和国家发展,务实主义的领导集体和治国方略必不可少。     

Optimal financing and dividend policy with Markovian switching regimes

This work investigates an optimal financing and dividend problem for an insurer whose surplus process is modulated by an observable continuous-time and finite-state Markov chain. We assume that the insurer should never go bankrupt by issuing new equity. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected present value of the dividends payout minus the discounted cost of equity issuance. We obtain the optimal policies and explicit expressions for the value functions when the risk reserve process is modeled by both upward jump model and its diffusion approximation. Numerical illustrations of the sensitivities of the model parameters are provided.     

Levels or worlds of welfare? Assessing social rights and social stratification in Northern and Southern countries

Since Esping‐Andersen's Three Worlds, it has become a truism of welfare state research that welfare states do not vary linearly along a single dimension but have to be conceptualized as multidimensional phenomena that cluster into types caused by the political economy of class coalitions. However, when moving beyond the 18 original countries of Esping‐Andersen's analysis, the situation is less clear. Although additional worlds have been identified in the Global North and the Global South, these are usually not conceptualized along the same dimensions as the original three worlds and are rarely empirically compared with them. This paper tackles these omissions by explicitly comparing Northern and Southern countries within Esping‐Andersen's framework. It poses the question whether the central insight of welfare state research, namely, that there are not just gradual differences between welfare states, but different types with qualitative differences, expands beyond classic welfare states. Based on newly generated data on social rights and social stratification, we employ cluster analysis with 45 Northern and Southern countries. This analysis produces mixed results. We do find different types of welfare states with qualitative differences, but these do not fully correspond to Esping‐Andersen's Three Worlds. Moreover, our findings also point to a conceptual issue in welfare regime research: regimes are not just defined and measured in terms of different logics of welfare provision but also take into account degrees of welfare stateism. We argue that this issue is poised to become ever more pressing with the geographical expansion of welfare state research.     

无产阶级政权建设规律的初步探索

马克思从揭示人类社会发展规律的角度,通过对世界上第一次出现的无产阶级政权——巴黎公社的分析和总结,阐述了科学社会主义政权建设理论,提出了一些基本政治原则。他指出:建立一个真正的人民国家是无产阶级专政的基础和前提;以责任制廉价政府代替官僚等级制政府是其主要形式;以议行合一原则取代分权制衡原则的权力分配形式可以保证国家机构的政治效能。中国共产党在长期执政实践中积累了丰富的执政经验,党的十九大提出中国特色社会主义已进入新时代。在此契机下重新研读马克思经典著作,对认识和把握中国共产党执政新飞跃、实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化有着重大现实意义。     

论西夏的司法制度

西夏的行政、军事机关,一般都兼有案件审判和督察复核职责。司法诉讼主要为刑事诉讼,即使民事案件,也是用刑事判断。对人犯的逮捕只需长官的指令,而不履行法律手续。法律上只有对逮捕人的督察,防其奸伪、贪纵、暴掠以及无故杀伤人犯,人犯拒捕反抗格杀勿论。     

论中国历史上的北方民族政权:以辽、西夏、金、元四朝为重点

古代北方民族,常常形成实力强大的集团,对中国历史的全局产生重大影响。在国家政治组织层面上,征服王朝既采纳了一些汉法,又掺入了不少原先政权的制度因素,这样的结合导致了真正的君主专制。女真人政权的合法性得到境内大多数汉族知识阶层人士的认同,蒙古人的元朝则有些逊色。辽、西夏、金、元等王朝非汉族的统治,并没有改变汉地社会、经济、文化的基本面貌,它们的影响主要是政治上的。     

陆荣廷政权在边疆民族经济融合进程中运用的政府和民间两种力量

陆荣廷为首的桂系集团是一个复杂的政治群体,对其历史作用应进行多元化评价。他们利用政府和民间两种力量清除了部分落后的社会政治制度和邪恶势力,扩大了近代经济制度和社会经济组织的影响,在一定程度上奠定了广西新的政治和经济格局。同时推动了边疆民族经济融合的程度进一步加深。     

中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的门限性质检验——兼论两地经济周期协同性中的美国因素

运用M arkov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的门限性质以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行分析。结果显示:一方面,两地经济周期的协同性依赖于区制状态的"门限性质",即在不同的经济周期区制内呈现出不同的协同性水平。另一方面,两地经济周期的协同程度隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响。当剥离美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。因此,促进两地经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

Gender,work, and childcare in Kazakhstan,Mongolia, and Russia

The current study seeks to understand the nature of gender relations within a post‐Soviet welfare model in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Russia. On the basis of the analysis of key labour market indicators, parental leave, and childcare policies, it finds that the welfare models in the three countries are hybrid, and neither authoritarianism in Kazakhstan and Russia nor democracy in Mongolia lead to substantive gender equality outcomes. Persistent gender inequality in these countries is underpinned by the neo‐liberal approach to welfare provision, conservative social norms, and limited agency of civil society to influence the policy agenda. Nonetheless, these states have distributed to the population with an emphasis on working mothers, and this policy choice has been driven by economic, demographic, and political considerations, which ultimately serve to support, rather than transform, the patriarchal power structure in these societies.     

Of River Linkage and Issue Linkage: Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation on the River Meuse

Abstract

It is a truism in mainstream International Relations that issue linkage promotes regime formation and integration. The present article applies this idea to the transboundary lower river Meuse and finds its history of integration to be a tortuous one. Contextual political factors have at times promoted integration, at times fragmentation. The path towards regional integration, then, has not been not linear, but has consisted of conflict and cooperation, of (Meuse–Scheldt) river linkage and issue linkage, but also counterlinkage and non-linkage. Clearly linkage is not necessarily positive. I will argue that this does not need to be problematic, but suggest accepting more complexity in the analysis of river integration. I propose a way to create some order in the many available concepts of linkage to map out the role of linkage in integration.