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1.
Stephen J. Ruberg Frank E. Harrell Jr. Margaret Gamalo-Siebers Lisa LaVange J. Jack Lee Karen Price 《The American statistician》2019,73(1):319-327
ABSTRACTThe cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making. 相似文献
2.
Bram Thuysbaert 《Journal of Economic Inequality》2008,6(1):33-55
Empirical applications of poverty measurement often have to deal with a stochastic weighting variable such as household size.
Within the framework of a bivariate distribution function defined over income and weight, I derive the limiting distributions
of the decomposable poverty measures and of the ordinates of stochastic dominance curves. The poverty line is allowed to depend
on the income distribution. It is shown how the results can be used to test hypotheses concerning changes in poverty. The
inference procedures are briefly illustrated using Belgian data.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
3.
4.
Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small. 相似文献
5.
对企业本质的认识是微观经济学中的一个重要问题,其对中国的国企改革有着重要意义。本文中,我们对企业的合约本质进行了经济理论探索和统计检验,并突出关注企业的激励合约问题。 相似文献
6.
统计调查课程的现状与调整思路 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章从统计调查课程设置的现状出发,介绍了当前随着社会经济的发展和统计调查方法体系的改革,统计调查理论体系以及统计调查课程设置的不足,叙述了统计调查课程调整的思路。要实施这个思路,必须重视统计调查对象内容的变化,并注重借鉴国外成熟的经验。为适应形势的发展,随着现行统计调查方法体系的调整与完善,对统计调查课程也要作相应的调整。 相似文献
7.
Paramjit S. Gill Tim B. Swartz 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2004,53(2):249-260
Summary. A fully Bayesian analysis of directed graphs, with particular emphasis on applica- tions in social networks, is explored. The model is capable of incorporating the effects of covariates, within and between block ties and multiple responses. Inference is straightforward by using software that is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Examples are provided which highlight the variety of data sets that can be entertained and the ease with which they can be analysed. 相似文献
8.
Jan F. M. Raes 《Statistics and Computing》1992,2(2):55-62
A decade of research into the applications of artificial intelligence in statistics has finally resulted in the appearance of commercially available statistical expert systems. This paper takes a closer look at two of these systems, which are now commercially available on microcomputers, and shows what knowledge they actually contain and how they operate. It is concluded that although the technology and concepts that drive these systems could still benefit from further improvement, the real challenge lies in defining and constructing the statistical knowledge and strategy that should be incorporated and in presenting the results to the user's full advantage. 相似文献
9.
Eugene Seneta 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2002,44(4):385-400
The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture. 相似文献
10.
《The American statistician》2012,66(4):321-326
ABSTRACTA statistical test can be seen as a procedure to produce a decision based on observed data, where some decisions consist of rejecting a hypothesis (yielding a significant result) and some do not, and where one controls the probability to make a wrong rejection at some prespecified significance level. Whereas traditional hypothesis testing involves only two possible decisions (to reject or not a null hypothesis), Kaiser’s directional two-sided test as well as the more recently introduced testing procedure of Jones and Tukey, each equivalent to running two one-sided tests, involve three possible decisions to infer the value of a unidimensional parameter. The latter procedure assumes that a point null hypothesis is impossible (e.g., that two treatments cannot have exactly the same effect), allowing a gain of statistical power. There are, however, situations where a point hypothesis is indeed plausible, for example, when considering hypotheses derived from Einstein’s theories. In this article, we introduce a five-decision rule testing procedure, equivalent to running a traditional two-sided test in addition to two one-sided tests, which combines the advantages of the testing procedures of Kaiser (no assumption on a point hypothesis being impossible) and Jones and Tukey (higher power), allowing for a nonnegligible (typically 20%) reduction of the sample size needed to reach a given statistical power to get a significant result, compared to the traditional approach. 相似文献