研究生导师队伍建设的重要环节——学术论文量化评估

本文从研究生导师队伍科研成果的结构入手 ,认为对导师科研工作评估重点应是对学术论文的量化 ,并提出学术论文量化评估的指标设置、权重系数及其数学模型。     

The evaluation of DNA evidence in pedigrees requiring population inference

Summary. The evaluation of nuclear DNA evidence for identification purposes is performed here taking account of the uncertainty about population parameters. Graphical models are used to detail the hypotheses being debated in a trial with the aim of obtaining a directed acyclic graph. Graphs also clarify the set of evidence that contributes to population inferences and they also describe the conditional independence structure of DNA evidence. Numerical illustrations are provided by re-examining three case-studies taken from the literature. Our calculations of the weight of evidence differ from those given by the authors of case-studies in that they reveal more conservative values.     

Status and competitive choice

In this paper, we extend the logic of existing sociological theory on status to explain how status processes can inform selection in competitive choice situations. We argue that in the absence of knowledge about the specific abilities of others and assuming a desire to win, when given the opportunity to “pick their battles,” people will draw on overt status differences as a basis for selecting a competitor from a pool of possible competitors. Results from three studies indicate that, as predicted, status differences affect competitor selection, with individuals choosing to compete against those who are relatively lower status based on diffuse characteristics. Moreover, consistent with expectation state theories, results from two studies show that the expectations that people form for their potential competitors based on status differences mediate this relationship. We conclude by discussing the implications of this research.     

Adolescent girls’ race/ethnic status, identities, and drive for thinness

Using data from 7272 adolescent US girls, we explore how girls’ race/ethnic group status affects their bodyweight, perceptions of overweight, and weight control practices. We hypothesize that a girl’s race/ethnic status influences her basic identity which in turn prompts her to adopt or reject a “drive for thinness.” After controlling for family and peer support, school engagement, family SES, maturation, and family structure, we find that girls’ race/ethnic status influences their susceptibility to the thinness ideals of mainstream culture. African American girls weigh more than Asian, Hispanic, or White girls, but at any given weight they perceive themselves as overweight and attempt to control their weight less. Asian American and White girls invest most in thinness dynamics. Some evidence also suggests girls from lower SES families are less driven to be thin. Our results affirm the utility of viewing material bodies as “situations” that are experienced and interpreted in accord with identity group relations and dynamics.     

A case-based distance method for screening in multiple-criteria decision aid

Screening is a process of multiple-criteria decision aid (MCDA) in which a large set of alternatives is reduced to a smaller set that most likely contains the best choice. We propose screening using a distance model calibrated on the basis of the decision-maker's own judgement. Viewing MCDA as preference aggregation based on consequence data, we define consequence and preference expressions (values and weights) and describe how they are aggregated. Then we define screening and explain some of its properties. Using an appropriate definition of distance, our case-based distance method screens a set of alternatives using criterion weights and a distance threshold obtained by quadratic optimization using the decision-maker's selection of alternatives from a test set. This case-based method can elicit the decision maker's preferences more expeditiously and accurately than direct inquiry. An application in water supply planning is used to demonstrate the procedure.     

Development of an innovative process evaluation approach for the Families Improving Together (FIT) for weight loss trial in African American adolescents

This study demonstrates how a multi-theoretical, multilevel process evaluation was used to assess implementation of the Families Improving Together (FIT) for weight loss intervention. FIT is a randomized controlled trial evaluating a culturally tailored, motivational plus family-based program on weight loss in African American adolescents and their parents. Social Cognitive, Self Determination, Family Systems theories and cultural tailoring principles guided the conceptualization of essential elements across individual/family, facilitator, and group levels. Data collection included an observational rating tool, attendance records, and a validated psychosocial measure.ResultsAttendance records (0 = absent, 1 = present, criteria = ≥70%) indicated that 71.5% of families attended each session. The survey (1 = false, 6 = true, criteria = ≥4.5) indicated that participants perceived a positive group climate (M = 5.16, SD = 0.69). A trained evaluator reported that facilitator dose delivered (0 = no, 1 = yes, criteria = ≥75%) was high (99.6%), and fidelity (1 = none to 4 = all, criteria = ≥3) was adequate at facilitator (M = 3.63, SD = 0.41) and group levels (M = 3.35, SD = 0.49). Five cultural topics were raised by participants related to eating (n = 3) and physical activity (n = 2) behaviors and were integrated as part of the final curriculum.DiscussionResults identify areas for program improvement related to delivery of multi-theoretical and cultural tailoring elements. Findings may inform future strategies for implementing effective weight loss programs for ethnic minority families.     

Psychosocial risk factors for excessive gestational weight gain: A systematic review

BackgroundExcessive weight gain during pregnancy can have adverse health outcomes for mother and infant throughout pregnancy. However, few studies have identified the psychosocial factors that contribute to women gaining excessive weight during pregnancy.AimTo review the existing literature that explores the impact of psychosocial risk factors (psychological distress, body image dissatisfaction, social support, self-efficacy and self-esteem) on excessive gestational weight gain.MethodsA systematic review of peer-reviewed English articles using Academic Search Complete, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, MEDLINE Complete, PsycINFO, Informit, Web of Science, and Scopus was conducted. Quantitative studies that investigated psychosocial factors of excessive GWG, published between 2000 and 2014 were included. Studies investigating mothers with a low risk of mental health issues and normally-developing foetuses were eligible for inclusion. From the total of 474 articles located, 12 articles were identified as relevant and were subsequently reviewed in full.FindingsSignificant associations were found between depression, body image dissatisfaction, and social support with excessive gestational weight gain. No significant relationships were reported between anxiety, stress, self-efficacy, or self-esteem and excessive gestational weight gain.ConclusionThe relationship between psychosocial factors and weight gain in pregnancy is complex; however depression, body dissatisfaction and social support appear to have a direct relationship with excessive gestational weight gain. Further research is needed to identify how screening for, and responding to, psychosocial risk factors for excessive gestational weight gain can be successfully incorporated into current antenatal care.     

Using data envelopment analysis for the assessment of technical efficiency of units with different specialisations: An application to agriculture

In this paper we consider the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the assessment of efficiency of units whose output profiles exhibit specialisation. An example of this is found in agriculture where a large number of different crops may be produced in a particular region, but only a few farms actually produce each particular crop. Because of the large number of outputs, the use of conventional DEA models in such applications results in a poor efficiency discrimination. We overcome this problem by specifying production trade-offs between different outputs, relying on the methodology of Podinovski (J Oper Res Soc 2004;55:1311–22). The main idea of our approach is to relate various outputs to the production of the main output. We illustrate this methodology by an application of DEA involving agricultural farms in different regions of Turkey. An integral part of this application is the elicitation of expert judgements in order to formulate the required production trade-offs. Their use in DEA models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency discrimination. The proposed methodology should also be of interest to other applications of DEA where units may exhibit specialization, such as applications involving hospitals or bank branches.     

汇率机制改革后人民币汇率的动态变化

 汇改后人民币汇率一直处于一个升值趋势,但是2008年后至今将近一年的时间内却基本保持不变。本文利用2005年7月21-2009年8月13日汇率数据探讨人民币篮子中货币权重的动态变化,来解释汇改以来人民币/美元走势。我们发现：一、在整个估计区间内,美元平均权重达到88%,同时美元权重存在结构性变化;二、利用滚动回归(rolling regression),美元权重可以分为三个阶段：2006年10月-2008年8月,2008年9月-2009年1月和2009年2月－2009年8月,分别处于缓慢上升、快速下降和重新回调的趋势中;第三、引入外汇市场压力(EMP),使用月度数据对篮子货币重新进行了考察,欧元在篮子中权重大幅上升,同时汇率对外汇市场压力反应并不明显。因此人民币仍取决于篮子中最主要的两种货币：美元和欧元的权重转换及二种货币间的价值变化。     

抽样调查中的权数问题研究

用样本数据推断总体,权数的作用十分重要。使用权数,不仅能将样本还原到总体,还能调整样本结构,使其与总体结构相一致,因此正确的使用权数是我们进行统计推断的基础。本文系统阐述了抽样调查分析中权数的获取过程,以及后期对初始权数调整过程。由于权数是把双刃剑,在提高精度的同时,有可能提高估计量的误差,本文提出了对权数进行评估的方法,研讨如何对权数进行控制,最后根据我国综合社会调查项目（CGSS）的数据进行实证分析,按照所给方法不仅能提高估计精度,而且能够降低抽样推断中的权效应。