Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

抗震救灾伟大斗争彰显中国人民伟大力量

中国人民与四川汶川地震自然灾害进行的伟大斗争，向全世界展示了中国共产党的坚强领导能力、中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜的巨大号召力、人民军队的强大战斗力、社会主义中国的厚实综合国力以及中华民族精神的蓬勃生机与活力。     

Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest, Romania

The Municipality of Bucharest is one of the capitals with the highest seismic risk in the world. Bucharest is particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard due to: the high density of inhabitants, especially within the residential districts with blocks of flats; the old public utility fund; the out-of-date infrastructure; the numerous industrial parks that are undergoing a restructuring process, not to mention the inefficient organization of civil protection and poor education of the population regarding seismic risk. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people living with the risk of an earthquake hazard in Bucharest. We were interested in how attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education, residential area and socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard, degree of risk exposure, degree of danger, and casualty awareness. At the same time, we compare the results of this study with those from a previous and similar enquiry in 1997. The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference between the declared perception of seismic risk and the independent variables of gender, age, level of education, level of attachment to the residential area, and degree to which the subjects consider they may be affected and could retrieve their losses. Due to the continuous decrease of their living standard, the most vulnerable is the aged population. The feelings toward the residential area is another factor of statistical significance for the population's seismic danger perception. A strong affective bond offers a feeling of safety and leads to the neglect and even total denial of the hazard. In the case of independent variables regarding the type of dwelling, its age, and property form, deviations of empiric values from the theoretical distribution are not relevant for the correlation searched for, which indicates that this issue goes beyond the above-mentioned criteria.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.     

To Christchurch with Love: Family,Neighbourhood and Community Responses to Earthquake‐Related Trauma

What follows is a response from far away to a city, its citizens and professional colleagues ravaged by a series of devastating earthquakes and aftershocks in 2010. It was an attempt to offer stories that could be easily circulated around professional circles and the populace. These might be considered to be ‘teaching tales’, which the author hoped would implicate community responses to what could be regarded as individual problems.     

基于模糊理论评估连续梁桥地震破坏状况

为了研究不同强度等级地震作用下连续梁桥的破坏模式及破坏程度,采用多级模糊综合评判方法建立连续梁桥的综合评估模型。根据连续梁桥的特点,利用连续梁桥各单元及各构件的破坏程度建立多个因素集,根据各因素的权重和评价标准,对多个因素集进行逐级评判,根据最大隶属度原则得到地震作用下连续梁桥的破坏情况,并通过等级参数评判法对不同地震强度下连续梁桥的破坏情况进行等级评判,得到连续梁桥破坏情况与地震强度之间的关系。最后,基于多级模糊综合评判方法对一座连续梁桥实例进行评判     

地震灾后重建绩效测量——以汶川、玉树、芦山地震为例

灾后重建是保障地震灾区群众重归正常生产生活的重要工作,那么如何测量灾后重建绩效,哪些因素会影响灾后重建绩效?文章回顾了灾后重建绩效相关研究文献,在此基础上认为效果和效率是灾后重建绩效的两大方面,以"消除灾害影响并恢复到灾前水平所用的时间"作为衡量灾后重建绩效的标准,能够反映灾后重建的效果和效率,具有可行性。以此为基础建立了灾后重建绩效的分析框架和测量方法,并选择汶川地震、玉树地震和芦山地震作为案例,对三次地震灾区的重建绩效进行了对比分析并简要分析了绩效差异原因。结果表明,三次地震灾后重建基本如期完成了灾后重建目标任务,但因存在灾害程度不同、对口支援质量不同等原因,三次地震灾后重建绩效存在一定差异。     

地震伤病员的心理辅导策略研究

地震灾害不仅给人们带来经济、财产损失和生命威胁,还给人们带来深远的心理影响.文章在分析地震伤病员的心理表现与成因的基础上,形成了对地震伤病员进行心理辅导的对策,并提出了开展心理救援工作的建议.     

考虑时效与公平性的震后应急物资动态配送优化研究

大规模地震后应急物资的高效保障是应急救援有效开展的必要前提。震后应急物资运输与配送包括从区域储备仓库和外围物资集散地运输到区域应急配送中心、由区域应急配送中心配送到各个受灾点两个阶段。应急物资保障具有持续时间长、需求紧迫性强和物资相对短缺等特点。本文以应急物资保障时效性与分配公平性为目标,建立了考虑多种运输方式、多时段动态的应急物资配送中心选址与运输配送路径优化的多目标规划模型,并基于此模型设计了一种带精英策略的非支配排序的遗传算法,以九寨沟地区地震灾难情景对模型进行实证研究,验证了模型和算法的有效性,以期为震后应急物资保障提供理论指导与决策支持。