Empirical Non-Parametric Control Charts: Estimation Effects and Corrections

Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small.     

Effects of Work Incentive Policies and Determinants of the Socioeconomic Status of Welfare Leavers in an Economically Disadvantaged Area

Abstract

This study explores how work incentive policies influence the socioeconomic status of welfare leavers. Logistic and ordinal regression methods were used to analyze 1999 statewide survey data on West Virginia WORKS leavers. This study found that people who had more months of eligibility remaining for TANF were more likely to have jobs than those with fewer months of eligibility. People who had been sanctioned for noncompliance with work requirementswere less likely to have jobs than those who had not been sanctioned. However, childcare assistance had a significant influence on the employment of welfare leavers. EITC was significantly associated with the expectation of high economic status. Policy implications are discussed.     

Age limits for participation in child protection court proceedings in Sweden

According to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and Swedish legislation, children have the right to participate in child protection proceedings. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the notion of age and maturity in child protection proceedings in order to elucidate how these aspects could influence children's rights to participate. We focus on the view of three groups of actors involved in child protection proceedings in Sweden—social workers, lawyers, and laypersons in social welfare boards and administrative courts—and on how children's age and maturity should be taken into consideration in decisions on their participation in court. The analysis is based on survey data. The study found that social workers, laypersons, and lawyers have different views on when children are old enough to have the right to litigate in court. Additionally, there is no consensus on how the maturity of the child can be assessed to inform the decision about participation. More discussion is needed about what competences a child needs to participate in court and to what extent this right should be limited by their age. Importantly, courts and decision‐making proceedings can be made more child friendly.     

犯罪记忆心理的可测性与局限性

中国的心理测试技术,是运用现代心理学、犯罪心理学和实验心理学原理以及神经心理学、生物电子学等研究成果,通过专用测试仪器软硬件和智能化计算机系统,同时同步记录人的多项心理生物反映指标,进而评判心理痕迹对应相关程度的实验心理技术。心理测试中心近20年犯罪心理测试的研究成果、以及经过直接参与办理全国各地600多起重特大疑难案件的实践、和经过对近万人实案测试图谱的评判分析研究,得出的结论是:违法犯罪人在经历过违法犯罪事件之后的记忆违法犯罪心理痕迹是可测的。这项技术在辅助刑侦工作方面有着很大的作用,但同样,我们也要看到它的局限性。     

论损害赔偿限额的非正当性——以国际航空运输承运人责任为例的研究

《华沙公约》及其华沙体制的一个显著特点,是建立了统一的损害赔偿限额。围绕损害赔偿限额的正当性与非正当性之争,在华沙体制建立伊始就已经开始了,并且一直是国际航空法上广受争议的问题。损害赔偿限额在侵权法中,并非严格责任或者推定过错责任的本质特征。损害赔偿限额在理论上缺乏正当性。国际航空运输承运人责任中损害赔偿限额的产生与发展对我国民用航空法具有重大的启示。     

Benchmark Dose Analysis via Nonparametric Regression Modeling

Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose‐response modeling. It is a well‐known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low‐dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal‐response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap‐based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small‐sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty.     

The extended GWMA control chart

This study extends the generally weighted moving average (GWMA) control chart by imitating the double exponentially weighted moving average (DEWMA) technique. The proposed chart is called the double generally weighted moving average (DGWMA) control chart. Simulation is employed to evaluate the average run length characteristics of the GWMA, DEWMA and DGWMA control charts. An extensive comparison of these control charts reveals that the DGWMA control chart with time-varying control limits is more sensitive than the GWMA and the DEWMA control charts for detecting medium shifts in the mean of a process when the shifts are between 0.5 and 1.5 standard deviations. Additionally, the GWMA control chart performs better when the mean shifts are below the 0.5 standard deviation, and the DEWMA control performs better when the mean shifts are above the 1.5 standard deviation. The design of the DGWMA control chart is also discussed.     

The limits of planning in China: equalizing basic education through the Internet

Planning, in its reinvented form, is an important tool for government macro-steering, but the role of the Internet in planning has been overlooked by researchers. Educational reforms are illustrative of the planning processes that characterize policy-making in China. Through a case study of educational policy in Qingbaijiang District in Chengdu, this paper examines how the Internet changes the limits of planning in educational equalization. The trial-site status of the district allows us to see how pragmatic adaptation of the new technology works on the ground, enabling an overall improvement in quality. However, at the same time, this strengthens elite schools, thus, paradoxically, creating inequality on a different level. Hence, this is a unique case to understand the limits of planning in China, and the key implication for research is that the Internet – and indeed techno-science as a social order – should be included in future analyses of planning.     

文献研究中语言学方法的限度

学术研究中,语言学方法常常用于文献的断代研究,但是,这一方法是具有一定限度的。若干失误往往表现在方法论的预设,凡是某一时代文献没有记载的语汇就不属于该时代;且在语汇的时间层次、语言使用的差异性、语法的时间层次上皆有一定的盲区。认识这一现象,有助于我们在使用上述方法进行学术研究时确定其存在的限度。     

New High-Speed Computing Devices

“One method of error analysis (not the one we will use) is based upon the principles of mathematical statistics. Unfortunately, statistical methods can only be meaningfully applied when one has large amounts of data for a given system. In many cases … these large quantities of data are not available … then statistical methods are not applicable, and some other methods must be devised.”