An Empirical Model of Perceived Mortality Risks for Selected U.S. Arsenic Hot Spots

Researchers have long recognized that subjective perceptions of risk are better predictors of choices over risky outcomes than science‐based or experts’ assessments of risk. More recent work suggests that uncertainty about risks also plays a role in predicting choices and behavior. In this article, we develop and estimate a formal model for an individual's perceived health risks associated with arsenic contamination of his or her drinking water. The modeling approach treats risk as a random variable, with an estimable probability distribution whose variance reflects uncertainty. The model we estimate uses data collected from a survey given to a sample of people living in arsenic‐prone areas in the United States. The findings from this article support the fact that scientific information is essential to explaining the mortality rate perceived by the individuals, but uncertainty about the probability remains significant.     

亚砷酸对肺癌细胞凋亡及LRP基因表达影响的体外研究

目的观察亚砷酸(As2O3)对人肺腺癌的诱导凋亡作用及对LRP基因表达的影响及可能机制.方法选用人肺腺癌A549细胞系,应用体外细胞培养法,流式细胞术检测As2O3对人肺腺癌的诱导凋亡作用;用逆转录-聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)方法检测LRPmRNA的表达.结果不同浓度的As2O3均可诱导A549细胞凋亡.1.0μmol/L、2.0μmol/L的As2O3可下调LRPmRNA的表达.结论As2O3诱导肿瘤细胞凋亡作用主要是通过下调LRPmRNA表达有密切关系.     

Consideration of Background Exposures in the Management of Hazardous Waste Sites: A New Approach to Risk Assessment

The current approach to health risk assessment of toxic waste sites in the U.S. may lead to considerable expenditure of resources without any meaningful reduction in population exposure. Risk assessment methods used generally ignore background exposures and consider only incremental risk estimates for maximally exposed individuals. Such risk estimates do not address true public health risks to which background exposures also contribute. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a new approach to risk assessment and risk management concerning toxic waste sites. Under this new approach, which we have called public health risk assessment, chemical substances would be classified into a level of concern based on the potential health risks associated with typical national and regional background exposures. Site assessment would then be based on the level of concern for the particular pollutants involved and the potential contribution of site contaminants to typical background human exposures. While various problems can be foreseen with this approach, the key advantage is that resources would be allocated to reduce the most important sources of human exposure, and site remediation decisions could be simplified by focussing on exposure assessment rather than questionable risk extrapolations.     

Simultaneous semi-sequential testing of dual alternatives for pattern recognition

In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric simultaneous test for dual alternatives. Simultaneous tests for dual alternatives are used for pattern detection of arsenic contamination level in ground water. We consider two possible patterns, namely, monotone shift and an umbrella-type location alternative, as the dual alternatives. Pattern recognition problems of this nature are addressed in Bandyopadhyay et al. [5], stretching the idea of multiple hypotheses tests as in Benjamini and Hochberg [6]. In the present context, we develop an alternative approach based on contrasts that helps us to detect three underlying pattern much more efficiently. We illustrate the new methodology through a motivating example related to highly sensitive issue of arsenic contamination in ground water. We provide some Monte-Carlo studies related to the proposed technique and give a comparative study between different detection procedures. We also obtain some related asymptotic results.     

氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法测定奶粉中砷含量的不确定度评定

介绍氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法测定奶粉中砷含量的不确定度评定方法[1][2]。从测量各步骤评定了不确定度的各项来源[3],对该方法所得分析结果的已识别来源的不确定度影响进行评价。并且可为实验室在该检测过程中进一步提高检测数据的可靠性和一致性作参考。     

极谱法测定砷化镓半导体中的铟

提出了用微分脉冲极谱法测定砷化镓半导体中铟含量的方法。讨论了测定方法的准确度、灵敏度及干扰情况。测定结果表明，用微分脉冲极谱法测定砷化镓中的铟可测定至５×１０－５ｍｏｌ／Ｌ，在砷化镓样品量小于０．１ｇ时，其相对标准偏差小于３％。     

An Application of the Holistochastic Human Exposure Methodology to Naturally Occurring Arsenic in Bangladesh Drinking Water

The occurrence of arsenic in drinking water is an issue of considerable interest. In the case of Bangladesh, arsenic concentrations have been closely monitored since the early 1990s through an extensive sampling network. The focus of the present work is methodological. In particular, we propose the application of a holistochastic framework of human exposure to study lifetime population damage due to arsenic exposure across Bangladesh. The Bayesian Maximum Entropy theory is an important component of this framework, which possesses solid theoretical foundations and offers powerful tools to assimilate a variety of knowledge bases (physical, epidemiologic, toxicokinetic, demographic, etc.) and uncertainty sources (soft data, measurement errors, etc.). The holistochastic exposure approach leads to physically meaningful and informative spatial maps of arsenic distribution in Bangladesh drinking water. Global indicators of the adverse health effects on the population are generated, and valuable insight is gained by blending information from different scientific disciplines. The numerical results indicate an increased lifetime bladder cancer probability for the Bangladesh population due to arsenic. The health effect estimates obtained and the associated uncertainty assessments are valuable tools for a broad spectrum of end-users.     

有毒微量元素砷的毒性研究

本文研究了有毒微量元素砷的毒性与其化学形态及摄入量之间的关系。指出了不是所有砷的化合物都是剧毒的,砷的毒性因其价态、化合态、化合物的溶解度及其存在器官、在体内的浓度、排泄速度等的不同而存在较大差异。     

A Probabilistic Arsenic Exposure Assessment for Children Who Contact Chromated Copper Arsenate (CCA)-Treated Playsets and Decks, Part 2: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses

A probabilistic model (SHEDS-Wood) was developed to examine children's exposure and dose to chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood, as described in Part 1 of this two-part article. This Part 2 article discusses sensitivity and uncertainty analyses conducted to assess the key model inputs and areas of needed research for children's exposure to CCA-treated playsets and decks. The following types of analyses were conducted: (1) sensitivity analyses using a percentile scaling approach and multiple stepwise regression; and (2) uncertainty analyses using the bootstrap and two-stage Monte Carlo techniques. The five most important variables, based on both sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, were: wood surface residue-to-skin transfer efficiency; wood surface residue levels; fraction of hand surface area mouthed per mouthing event; average fraction of nonresidential outdoor time a child plays on/around CCA-treated public playsets; and frequency of hand washing. In general, there was a factor of 8 for the 5th and 95th percentiles and a factor of 4 for the 50th percentile in the uncertainty of predicted population dose estimates due to parameter uncertainty. Data were available for most of the key model inputs identified with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses; however, there were few or no data for some key inputs. To evaluate and improve the accuracy of model results, future measurement studies should obtain longitudinal time-activity diary information on children, spatial and temporal measurements of residue and soil concentrations on or near CCA-treated playsets and decks, and key exposure factors. Future studies should also address other sources of uncertainty in addition to parameter uncertainty, such as scenario and model uncertainty.     

关于光绪帝死因的思考与献疑

关于光绪帝的死因,一直是传言纷纷,为清代历史上的一大疑案。有人认为光绪帝是因病正常死亡,有的人则认为光绪帝为他人谋害致死。钟里满等专家,利用现代精密仪器,对光绪帝头发上的砷（即砒霜）含量进行测定后认为,光绪帝死于“急性胃肠型砒霜中毒”,学界多数人的认识为之一变。“光绪因病正常死亡说”,史料依据翔实充分,其结论本应是可信的,但由于这一历史问题的特殊复杂性,因而又具有诸多的不可信性;而“光绪帝为人谋害砒霜中毒说”,可能已经非常接近、甚至即是客观事实了。但在有些问题尚未得到解释说明以前,即认定光绪帝确为他人谋害,死于砒霜中毒,尚为时过早。“光绪帝为人谋害砒霜中毒说,”是极其重要的学术结论,但还不是学术定论。