Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall under asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby.     

Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

市场分割、政企关系与异地市场拓展

中国的市场仍旧存在某种程度的分割，如何突破这种市场分割到异地拓展市场是企业要考虑的现实问题。以前的研究主要是从省级层面或国家层面进行宏观分析。文章创新地从政企关系视角入手来考察市场分割情形下微观层面的企业异地市场拓展，也是首先把市场分割（和异地市场）分为省内（本市外）市场、省外市场和海外市场三个不同层面来研究的论文。用世界银行的调查数据从微观企业个体层面检验了企业异地市场拓展的可能。实证研究结果发现，市场分割确实阻碍了企业异地市场拓展，但这仅限于省内市场而不是省外市场。此外，市场分割是有方向性的，从地方保护主义严重的市场里走出来的企业更容易拓展异地市场，但此结论仅适用于国内市场拓展而不适用于海外市场拓展。良好的政企关系是有利于企业异地市场拓展的，但仅限于省外市场，对省内市场以及海外市场是无效的。文章解释了其中的原因，并分析了对于企业实践的启示。     

韩国大企业集团的海外扩张战略

自 70年代以来 ,韩国政府通过采取出口导向战略扶持大企业进军海外市场 ,带动了韩国经济的发展。韩国在短短的几十年里由一个农业国变成了一个新兴的工业化国家 ,经济总量居亚洲第三。在韩国经济快速发展中 ,大企业的强力出口、大举投资的海外扩张战略功不可没     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

对近年来我国建设用地扩张的分析

着眼近年来我国的建设用地面积增长扩张的现状,分析了造成建设用地扩张的原因,指出城镇人口的增加、经济发展的需求、征地制度的实施和经济利益的驱动是建设用地扩张的主要因素。总结出建设用地过度扩张,会对我国粮食安全和生态安全构成威胁。由此提出严格控制利用土地谋利益,避免建设用地过度扩张。     

A Semi-parametric Regression Model with Errors in Variables

Abstract.  In this paper, we consider a partial linear regression model with measurement errors in possibly all the variables. We use a method of moments and deconvolution to construct a new class of parametric estimators together with a non-parametric kernel estimator. Strong convergence, optimal rate of weak convergence and asymptotic normality of the estimators are investigated.     

Refined Inference on Long Memory in Realized Volatility

There is an emerging consensus in empirical finance that realized volatility series typically display long range dependence with a memory parameter (d) around 0.4 (Andersen et al., 2001; Martens et al., 2004). The present article provides some illustrative analysis of how long memory may arise from the accumulative process underlying realized volatility. The article also uses results in Lieberman and Phillips (2004, 2005) to refine statistical inference about d by higher order theory. Standard asymptotic theory has an O(n^-1/2) error rate for error rejection probabilities, and the theory used here refines the approximation to an error rate of o(n^-1/2). The new formula is independent of unknown parameters, is simple to calculate and user-friendly. The method is applied to test whether the reported long memory parameter estimates of Andersen et al. (2001) and Martens et al. (2004) differ significantly from the lower boundary (d = 0.5) of nonstationary long memory, and generally confirms earlier findings.     

二阶非线性微分方程解的振动性和渐近性

讨论了二阶非线性常微分方程(α(t)(?)(x)x′)′+q(t)f(x)=r(t)的解的振动性和渐近性.获得了有关该方程的五个新的定理.     

我国股份制银行信贷失控现象研究

2001-2003年信贷扩张仍是股份制银行规模增长模式,五大特征暗含失控危机。从其主观特有的扩张、逐利、粉饰等动机及客观环境两个角度挖掘原因。鉴于其将对微观银行主体及宏观经济带来的恶果,对国有商业银行改制敲一记警钟。