Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

农村居民参与村委会选举的心理倾向研究

本研究依据村民作为社会行为主体的主动性和独立性,将村民参与村委会选举的心理倾向归纳为四种模式,即动员式心理模式、依附式心理模式、自觉式心理模式和热衷式心理模式,并根据调查结果统计和分析每一种心理倾向的特征,在此基础上对村民行为的理性做了一定的剖析,结论认为村民心理倾向均是一定理性层次的体现。     

Physiologically Based Liver Modeling and Risk Assessment

Because of the inherent complexity of biological systems, there is often a choice between a number of apparently equally applicable physiologically based models to describe uptake and metabolism processes in toxicology or risk assessment. These models may fit the particular data sets of interest equally well, but may give quite different parameter estimates or predictions under different (extrapolated) conditions. Such competing models can be discriminated by a number of methods, including potential refutation by means of strategic experiments, and their ability to suitably incorporate all relevant physiological processes. For illustration, three currently used models for steady-state hepatic elimination--the venous equilibration model, the parallel tube model, and the distributed sinusoidal perfusion model--are reviewed and compared with particular reference to their application in the area of risk assessment. The ability of each of the models to describe and incorporate such physiological processes as protein binding, precursor-metabolite relations and hepatic zones of elimination, capillary recruitment, capillary heterogeneity, and intrahepatic shunting is discussed. Differences between the models in hepatic parameter estimation, extrapolation to different conditions, and interspecies scaling are discussed, and criteria for choosing one model over the others are presented. In this case, the distributed model provides the most general framework for describing physiological processes taking place in the liver, and has so far not been experimentally refuted, as have the other two models. These simpler models may, however, provide useful bounds on parameter estimates and on extrapolations and risk assessments.     

Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case

A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.     

试论建筑防灾中的人群管理和应急管理

从社会心理学和行为心理学视角分析紧急灾难情况下人群的心理反应,阐明控制人群恐慌的人群管理方法,并结合国内外实例从正反两个方面说明人群管理方法在建筑防灾方面的有效性,进一步论述了应急管理在国内的发展方向和重点。     

浅析凤翔泥塑对现代设计的启示

中国的民间手工艺文化一直延续着中华本元文化的特征,保持了精神和物质统一的原生状态,同时包蕴了中华民族传统的自然观和思维方式,无论是其中的思想智慧还是造物工艺都为我们的现代设计在如何继承本土文化方面打开了一个可供吸收营养和借鉴的宝库。凤翔泥塑作为一种符号现象被现代设计加以运用,不能不说是民间传统手工艺术在现代的一次回归浪潮。文章探讨的是凤翔泥塑在纹饰、色彩、造型三个方面带给现代设计的启示。     

基于规则的客户关系管理系统建模方法

客户关系管理系统(CRM)是提高企业核心竞争力的有力武器。以工作流和过程建模技术为基础,研究CRM系统的建模,是CRM系统的建立和顺畅运行的关键。因此,将动态过程建模的思想引入CRM系统的建模过程中,按照逐层分解的建模方式来简化系统的复杂性,并采用事件驱动的、基于扩展业务规则的方法进行CRM系统的过程建模和系统性能评价,是针对CRM系统进行建模的有效手段。通过以上方法,可以建立出全面支持CRM系统运行、监控、仿真和性能评价的过程模型。根据该方法建立的CRM系统的模型经过仿真实验和企业实际应用,证明具有良好的应用效果。     

中产阶层的法律行为方式与和谐社会构建

和谐社会是建立在社会主义市场经济经济基础之上,以社会秩序的和谐稳定为整体目标,以社会利益关系的合理配置、人际利益关系协调整合为核心内容,以民主法治、公平正义和平等自由为价值依归的社会秩序状态。和谐社会在形式方面表现为人与人之间、人与自然之间关系的稳定性、进程的连续性、主体行为的规范性、财产和心理的安全性等。其实质方面意味着社会利益的公平合理配置和整合,社会利益冲突按照民主法治的原则和机制得以公平合理的解决,进而实现多元社会利益动态综合平衡。中产阶层的法律行为方式具有理性化、讲平等、重诚信、守法度等特点,它对于构建和谐社会、缓和与消解社会矛盾和冲突具有重要社会功能。