Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.     

Biosecurity Policy and the Use of Geospatial Predictive Tools to Address Invasive Plants: Updating the Risk Analysis Toolbox

International and national biosecurity policies consider risk assessment a critical component of overall plant health risk analysis. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, the International Plant Protection Convention, and the Convention on Biological Diversity all provide guidelines and recommendations on how to use risk assessment. This article discusses how these instruments address risk assessment, and makes recommendations on how the risk assessment process needs to incorporate current geospatial predictive science and geographic information systems into the plant health biosecurity risk analysis toolbox.     

Biosafety与Biosecurity:同一理论框架下的两个不同概念

生物安全是指防止由生物技术及微生物危险物质引起的生物危害,或者说是指防治生物技术及微生物生物污染。虽然biosafety与biosecurity都被称作生物安全,但biosafety强调的是防止非故意引起的生物技术及微生物生物危害,biosecurity则是指主动地采取措施防止故意的,如窃取及滥用生物技术及微生物危险物质引起的生物危害。一个将biosafety和biosecurity中割裂的各个部分以专题(生物技术安全、实验室生物安全、农林畜业及食品安全、危险病原体及生化毒素的管理、流行病及公共健康管理、生物武器管制与生物战的预防)的形式综合起来,使它们更有效率更有成效的、广泛的、可全球共享的生物安全理论框架已成为必需。     

论生物安全法的风险防控机制

在风险社会背景下，生物安全法的风险防控机制旨在平衡现代生物技术研发应用、生态环境开发利用与生态保护和公共卫生安全保障之间的内在张力，体现并遵循生物安全法的价值理念。风险防控机制由风险评估、风险管理和风险沟通三方面组成，其有效运行需以科学判断的风险评估为前提，适度运用“成本-效益”分析手段，实现风险管理的最优化路径选择，并突破单向度的路径依赖，以实现全面的风险沟通。     

论生物安全法律规制的范式转变——从损害管理到风险治理

当前我国以损害管理为主的生物安全法律规制范式尚未全面、系统地贯彻风险预防理念,条块分割的管理体制导致主管部门与地方政府以及部门之间存在信息壁垒,缺乏协调与合作,且生物安全规制机制仍体现出浓重的行政规制色彩,生物安全风险预防制度体系也出现严重缺失,无法适应风险社会中保障生物安全的迫切需要。生态风险的客观性与不确定性,以及从环境管理向环境治理转型的实践需求则为生物安全法律规制范式从损害管理向风险治理的转变奠定了正当性基础。在具体进路上,生物安全法律规制范式从损害管理到风险治理的转变应当从风险预防原则的引领、生物安全风险合作治理、生物安全风险治理的制度建设等方面展开。     

Adaptive Approaches to Biosecurity Governance

This article discusses institutional changes that may facilitate an adaptive approach to biosecurity risk management where governance is viewed as a multidisciplinary, interactive experiment acknowledging uncertainty. Using the principles of adaptive governance, evolved from institutional theory, we explore how the concepts of lateral information flows, incentive alignment, and policy experimentation might shape Australia's invasive species defense mechanisms. We suggest design principles for biosecurity policies emphasizing overlapping complementary response capabilities and the sharing of invasive species risks via a polycentric system of governance.     

Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction

The United States imports more than 1 billion live plants annually—an important and growing pathway for introduction of damaging nonnative invertebrates and pathogens. Inspection of imports is one safeguard for reducing pest introductions, but capacity constraints limit inspection effort. We develop an optimal sampling strategy to minimize the costs of pest introductions from trade by posing inspection as an acceptance sampling problem that incorporates key features of the decision context, including (i) simultaneous inspection of many heterogeneous lots, (ii) a lot‐specific sampling effort, (iii) a budget constraint that limits total inspection effort, (iv) inspection error, and (v) an objective of minimizing cost from accepted defective units. We derive a formula for expected number of accepted infested units (expected slippage) given lot size, sample size, infestation rate, and detection rate, and we formulate and analyze the inspector's optimization problem of allocating a sampling budget among incoming lots to minimize the cost of slippage. We conduct an empirical analysis of live plant inspection, including estimation of plant infestation rates from historical data, and find that inspections optimally target the largest lots with the highest plant infestation rates, leaving some lots unsampled. We also consider that USDA‐APHIS, which administers inspections, may want to continue inspecting all lots at a baseline level; we find that allocating any additional capacity, beyond a comprehensive baseline inspection, to the largest lots with the highest infestation rates allows inspectors to meet the dual goals of minimizing the costs of slippage and maintaining baseline sampling without substantial compromise.     

养殖户动物疫病防控激励研究进展

梳理国内外养殖户层面动物疫病防控激励研究进展,现有文献从经济和非经济因素分析养殖户防控激励。其中,经济因素包括内部和外部经济激励,内部经济激励来自防控措施对疫病损失的规避效果;养殖户疫病防控的外部性产生了公共政策干预和养殖户之间策略互动两类外部经济激励。非经济激励包含对疫病、风险和补偿的认知和态度,以及文化、声誉和责任感等因素。当前我国疫病防控政策对养殖户的经济激励重视不足、外部和内部经济激励错配,加之没有考虑非经济激励的营造与构建,是造成养殖户防控要素投入不足、疫情隐瞒等公共政策激励不相容的原因。针对动物疫病防控政策的缺陷,从经济与非经济激励两方面提出了矫正建议。     

新冠肺炎疫情与技术进步双重影响下的全球化趋势

新冠肺炎疫情影响全球物资、人员和资本流动,严重冲击当前的全球化进程。这一冲击的底层逻辑在于,人类社会运行以人员聚集状态下的生产为基本模式,形成的全球网络在疫情危机中易于遭受损失,并不安全。人类社会需要在更安全的状态下恢复全球化要素流动,并推动全球化继续发展。技术进步是应对这一需求的直接方式。其原因在于:技术进步使人类个体面对生物安全挑战时更加安全;技术进步使人类组织具备在隔离环境下维持运行的能力,提供对生物安全风险更强的监测和预测能力,提升供应链安全,并且技术进步理论上驱动组织形态发生部分变革,这都有助于人类组织更好应对生物安全风险。疫情和技术进步的双重影响促进全球化新趋势的产生。这种全球化新趋势包括更明显的地方化、区域化特点,以及中国在引领"再全球化"进程中作用的上升。新的全球化趋势将在地理空间层面和全球体系结构层面体现多中心化的特点。中国的比较优势有助于推动新的全球化趋势,实现更加均衡与安全的全球化。     

A Framework for Assessing and Managing Risks Posed by Emerging Diseases

Frameworks for analyzing the risks of emerging diseases and invasive species often have relied on unstructured estimates of likelihoods and consequences. We suggest a flexible alternative that offers more transparent analysis without need for additional data. Its strength lies in explicit and complementary treatment of technical and social judgments. We describe a system in which cognitive maps, Bayes nets, and multicriteria analysis can be used in tandem to structure a problem, identify exposure pathways, combine data and expert judgement to estimate the likelihoods, and assess consequences of alternative decisions. These tools may be employed in participatory settings or as part of standard regulatory practice. We illustrate this approach with an assessment of the management of an emerging disease that poses a hazard to Australia.