Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

LLSM在群体判断中的推广和应用

首先分析了对数最小二乘排序法的特点,说明它是一种值得重视的好方法;并进一步阐述了这一方法的基本原理,着重地对群体判断下求加权的综合排序向量的方法进行了严密的数学推导;提出了在加权的综合排序中权重系数确定的新見解,并举例子以解释。     

Children's gender- and age-based categorization in similarity and induction tasks

The present studies examined children's and adults' preferences for gender- or age-based categorization using similarity and inductive inference tasks. Four-year-olds, 6-year-olds, and adults looked at pictures of people and decided which of two was more like a target (similarity condition) or which shared a novel age- or gender-related property with the target (inference condition). Age or gender-based matches were possible. The results are consistent with previous findings that gender-based classification decreases with age. However, they also demonstrate that children use gender more for judging similarity than for making inferences about novel properties. Distinct patterns emerge from the two tasks: 6-year-olds and adults in both conditions categorize more by age than gender; 4-year-olds categorize by gender more than age in the similarity task, but by age more in the induction task. Only adults differentiated by property in the inference condition. These findings suggest that the salience of gender categories cannot entirely be attributed to their inductive potential. Gender has a salience beyond what would be predicted by its power for directing novel generalizations.     

西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断研究

本研究采用自编问卷就西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断情况进行了调查。结果表明:(1)大部分西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断呈一定的消极趋向;(2)西部青年对西部大开发的社会判断在农业与农民问题、民族交往问题、进城民工的权益保障问题上存在显著的地域差异,在工人下岗问题、腐败与经济犯罪问题上存在显著的职业差异,在环境问题上存在显著的文化程度差异。     

审视毛泽东思维

毛泽东一生丰功伟业 ,精神遗产无比宏富 ,而其科学思维则如奇葩一朵 ,光芒四射 ,全面贯穿于毛泽东思想的各个领域。毛泽东科学思维可以概括为“三大核心内容、十大特点、三块基石”。“三大核心内容”即 :民族独立和解放 ;社会主义制度的建立 ;社会主义道路的探索。“十大特点”即破旧立新 ,富于创造 ;求真务实 ,实事求是 ;把握关键 ;提纲契领 ;人民本体 ,服务群众 ;思想占领 ,攻心至上 ;形象生动 ,形式丰富 ;思维开放 ,系统把握 ;逆向思维 ,出其不意 ;辩证统一 ,一分为二 ;超前开拓 ,高瞻远瞩。“三块基石”即 :革命与战争的时代主题 ;中国传统文化的熏陶 ;丰硕的哲学底蕴。     

传统山水画的法度与审美

传统山水画是祖国传统艺术发展的一座历史丰碑 ,它是中华民族给人类创造的一笔宝贵的艺术财富。它之所以如此的辉煌 ,是与古人对山水画自然美的认识及其理论是分不开的。通过对传统山水画的构图、布局以及透视基本规律的综合分析 ,对传统山水画的理论法度、画法技巧与审美进行了初步探讨。     

Collapsing the Boundaries? Fatherhood,Organization and Home‐Working

In the modern western world, the discursive construction of fatherhood and everyday fathering practices has been underpinned by the spatial separation of work from home, of public from private. However, increasing numbers of employees are now working from home and a disproportionate number of these are men with young children. This article draws on new empirical research to examine the implications for fathers and for organizations as home‐working disrupts earlier spatial configurations of fatherhood and fathering practices. The article concludes that as the spatial boundaries between home and work collapse, new accommodations between fatherhood/fathering and organization are emerging. However, these are underpinned by a traditional gender division of labour in the household. More broadly, these findings confirm the inadequacy of static distinctions between public and private, showing that while such distinctions are still used to mark space and time, this is relational, contingent and unstable.     

An Interview with Georg Lind

Georg Lind is being interviewed by Helen Haste about his work in moral psychology. In the interview, he discusses the meaning and measurement of moral competencies, which he sees as crucial to bridge the gap between moral ideals and action, and to maintain modern democracies, which rely on the enactment of shared moral ideals. Lind has carried out and inspired one of the largest research programs in moral psychology, including longitudinal, cross-cultural, intervention, and experimental studies. His new methodology, the Moral Judgment Test, has been translated and adapted into many languages. Lind has also contributed much to the improvement and dissemination of educational methods to foster moral competencies. The intellectual and biographical roots of his interests are explored.     

理性崇拜下的政治缺憾

理性在人类社会发展中扮演重要角色,但理性崇拜带来的结果并不总是理性的。理性主义的内在逻辑表明,理性主义下存在着政治错位,理性主义在奔向目标的过程中常常对自由进行奴役,实践中理性主义下的民主还具有非现实性。因此,理性主义应在与经验主义的结合中寻找自己存在并发挥作用的现实基础。     

中国民事诉讼费用负担制度的法经济学思考

当事人之间诉讼费用负担和国家对审判成本负担的划分影响着当事人诉讼行为的选择。目前中国民事诉讼费用负担制度存在着制度供给不足、缺少救济措施、权利分布不均衡和国家承担公共成本太低等问题,因此健全中国民事诉讼费用负担制度,制定可行的救济措施,并对民事诉讼费用负担判决实行监督,实施法院独立预算等措施,才是解决民事诉讼费用负担问题的根本途径。