波普尔证伪主义方法论与决策科学

科学方法论对科学活动的研究,目的在于探索科学发现和科学检验所遵循的基本规则,并为科学预测和科学决策提供合理的依据。我国关于科学方法论的研究,主要集中在科学发现和科学检验这两个阶段,而对科学方法论的应用阶段———科学预测和科学决策———的研究则较为薄弱。本文通过波普尔证伪主义方法论与决策科学的比较,认为无论在决策科学的基础理论方面还是在决策科学的方法上,证伪主义方法论对决策科学都产生了重要的影响。     

Sequential estimation problems for negative exponential populations

The literature on sequential estimation problems for negative exponential populations has been reviewed here, We attempt to bring in all the published and unpublished materials known to us in a fairly coherent fashion. Both the concepts and theoretical findings are discussed.     

有限理性下的社保基金投资监管进化博弈研究

社保基金的投资监管是复杂的决策问题,无法满足主流博弈论“完全理性”的要求。因此从有限理性角度出发,分别建立了基金经理人之间、社保基金管理机构与基金经理人之间的进化博弈模型,求出模型的复制动态方程,研究不同情况下的进化稳定策略,并得到博弈群体的复制动态相位图。     

On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a deterministic econometric model for calculating efficiency by using data from an observed set of decision-making units (DMUs). We propose a method for calculating the distribution of efficiency scores. Our framework relies on estimating data from an unobserved set of DMUs. The model provides posterior predictive data for the unobserved DMUs to augment the frontier in the DEA that provides a posterior predictive distribution for the efficiency scores. We explore the method on a multiple-input and multiple-output DEA model. The data for the example are from a comprehensive examination of how nursing homes complete a standardized mandatory assessment of residents.     

“满意化”和“适应性”:西蒙有限理性思想探析

本文将从西蒙对有限理性认识的几个重要阶段入手,考察有限理性在西蒙学术生涯中的历史呈现形态,进而解析西蒙有限理性思想的完整含义。本文的基本结论:满意化和适应性是西蒙有限理性思想不可或缺的两个方面。     

有限理性视角下提升危机决策能力的方法

危机决策能力是政府执政能力的重要组成。有限理性视角下的危机决策强调细分决策问题,避免常规问题分散决策者注意力;强调充分发挥经验、直觉和洞察力等非理性因素,当机立断,最大限度控制危机蔓延;强调从常规制度结构建设入手,解决权力划分灰色区域的问题,不断提高危机决策的能力。     

General m-esttmators and applications to bounded influence estimation for non-linear regression

In this paper, we study the M-estimators in the case that λ_F:(β)=E_F:(φ(Z,β))=0 has more than one solution, We show that the numerical iterative procedures converge and that the resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. We apply them to the non-linear regression models, and then, we find an optimal M-estimate among those that have bounded gross error sensitivity.     

On shrinkage m-estimators of location parameters

For a general class of continuous ( and marginally symmetric ) inultivariate distributions, based on suitable M-statistics ( involving bounded but possibly discontinuous score generating functions), shrinkage estimators of location are considered. These estimators are based on the James-Stein type rule and incorporates the idea of preliminary test estimation too. The main emphasis is laid on the study of asymptotic tdistributional ) risk properties of these est-innators, and asymptotic tin-) adraissibility results are also studied under fairly general regularity conditions.     

边界Logistic违约率模型及实证研究

在前人研究基础上对边界Logistic违约率模型展开进一步研究.首先通过抽样分布性质的研究从理论上说明了为什么边界Logistic违约率模型更优越.然后利用中国公司数据展开实证研究,不仅找到了Cramer问题的中国证据,同时还发现边界Logistic违约率模型不仅能够克服Cramer问题、而且对临界值不敏感、同时预测效率也相对较高.     

论公众参与环境监管的补正功效与保障机制

环境监管是环境保护最重要、最关键的环节,加强环境监管是生态文明建设的迫切需求。法律赋予了政府保护环境的职责,地方政府通过环境监管保护环境,改善辖区内的环境质量,在环境监管体系中居于主导地位,但由于与利益追求和价值选择相伴生的局限性导致监管难以到位。公众参与环境监管有助于弥补地方政府环境监管不力、乏力,是环境法治发展的必然。为了提高环境监管的有效性,应当建立公众参与环境决策、环境执法、环境问责等保障机制,充分发挥地方政府主导、公众有序参与的作用,促进人与自然、人与社会和谐,以利于经济社会可持续发展。