论晋惠公

晋惠公并非一个庸碌无为的君主。晋惠公在位期间，晋国社会继续得到稳固 和发展。晋惠公许赂又背赂、作爰田、作州兵与和戎等一系列作为不仅为晋国的富强做出了 积极的贡献，并且为晋文公及其以后晋国的霸业奠定了坚实的政治、经济、军事基础。我们 应从历史发展的角度重新给予晋惠公一个公允的评价。     

夕照:没落与辉煌——古典诗词在当代大学生中普及情况的调查

古典诗词宛如夕阳晚照,呈现出没落与辉煌的双重状态:大学生对古典诗词表现出趋向与背离的尴尬情状;作者群体大多呈现老年化、单极化趋势.对调查的结果予以分析,并据此对"五四"造成的古典与现代的断裂进行反省.     

Piecewise FARIMA models for long-memory time series

We consider the problem of modelling a long-memory time series using piecewise fractional autoregressive integrated moving average processes. The number as well as the locations of structural break points (BPs) and the parameters of each regime are assumed to be unknown. A four-step procedure is proposed to find out the BPs and to estimate the parameters of each regime. Its effectiveness is shown by Monte Carlo simulations and an application to real traffic data modelling is considered.     

Lagrange multiplier unit root test in the presence of a break in the innovation variance

We show that the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test exhibits size distortions when a break in the innovation variance exists but is ignored. We develop a modified LM unit root test that is based on a generalized least-squares transformation of the original series. The asymptotic null distribution of the new modified LM unit root test is derived. Finite-sample simulation evidence shows that the modified LM unit root test maintains its size and has reasonable power against the trend stationary alternative.     

New innovational outlier unit root test with a break at an unknown time

The Perron test which is based on a Dickey–Fuller test regression is a commonly employed approach to test for a unit root in the presence of a structural break of unknown timing. In the case of an innovational outlier (IO), the Perron test tends to exhibit spurious rejections in finite samples when the break occurs under the null hypothesis. In the present paper, a new Perron-type IO unit root test is developed. It is shown in Monte Carlo experiments that the new test does not over-reject the null hypothesis. Even for the case of a level and slope break for trending data, the empirical size is near its nominal level. The test distribution equals the case of a known break date. Furthermore, the test is able to identify the true break date very accurately even for small breaks. As an application serves the Nelson–Plosser data set.     

A robust test for autocorrelation in the presence of a structural break in variance

It has been known that when there is a break in the variance (unconditional heteroskedasticity) of the error term in linear regression models, a routine application of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for autocorrelation can cause potentially significant size distortions. We propose a new test for autocorrelation that is robust in the presence of a break in variance. The proposed test is a modified LM test based on a generalized least squares regression. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new test performs well in finite samples and it is especially comparable to other existing heteroskedasticity-robust tests in terms of size, and much better in terms of power.     

陕西省人口城市化Logistic模型及其应用——基于结构突变的理论分析

城市化是走向现代化的必经阶段,准确的城市化预测是进行经济、社会建设的基础。在结构突变理论的基础上,用Logistic模型对1978～2010年陕西城市化率进行分析。结论表明：1999年为陕西城市化率的结构突变点,说明城市化率的增长受到外部冲击的影响,分段以后的拟合优度明显提高。分别以阈值0.8和1进行分阶段构建的Logistic拟合精度明显提高,但阈值为1的精度更高,说明陕西城市化还在加速,预测表明到2030年陕西城市化率将达到70%左右。总体而言,从1984年到2030年为陕西省城市化的加速阶段。城市化加速阶段的住房问题、人口膨胀、环境恶化、交通拥挤、社会治安问题必须妥善解决。     

转型中的康区藏族村寨--丹巴县梭坡乡莫洛村考察报告

本文作者考察了四川藏区丹巴县梭坡乡莫洛村社会经济发展的历史与现状 ,发现历史上这一康区藏族村寨是相对独立的经济文化单元 ,单元内生态资源互补、劳力合作、经济互助、婚姻内部流动 ,并曾在外力的影响下不断地进行过变革与调适。现今 ,西部大开发战略和天然林保护、退耕还林等系列工程的实施又将打破这个传统经济单元或文化圈子 ,把小圈子纳入到更大的圈子里 ,莫洛人在困惑与希望中不断地调适自己 ,寻找出路     

辛亥革命前武汉地区舆论宣传对武昌首义的作用

辛亥革命前夕,武汉地区的各革命组织为配合反清大业,发动了形式多样的革命宣传活动。经过长期的宣传,广泛发动了民众,争取并掌握了强有力的武装力量。辛亥起义之所以能在武昌打响第一枪并取得胜利,武汉地区的革命舆论宣传在其中起到了催生的作用。