盈余管理与股价崩盘风险

自2008年全球性金融危机爆发以来,股价暴跌现象在我国金融市场频频出现,股价暴跌尤其是股价崩盘越来越受到人们的关注。以中国A股上市公司2013—2017年数据为样本,研究盈余管理是否影响股价崩盘风险。研究结果表明:盈余管理显著影响股价崩盘风险;在其他条件不变的情况下,盈余管理与股价崩盘风险呈显著的正U型关系。这对全面认识盈余管理、降低我国上市公司股价崩盘风险、促进证券市场健康平稳发展具有重要意义。     

初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素——基于CFPS2010数据的分析

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2010),分析中国初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:随时间推移,初婚解体风险总体呈现上升趋势,其对城市的影响超过了农村,对女性的影响超过了男性;初婚年龄与初婚解体风险呈现轻微的U型关系,主要是由早婚或晚婚的婚姻异质性所引起;婚姻异质性对初婚解体风险的作用受择偶梯度的影响,"男高女低"婚姻模式的初婚离婚风险远远小于"女高男低"模式;在家庭因素的影响中,生育孩子有利于降低初婚离婚风险,而与父母同住及婚前同居则显著增加了初婚离婚风险。     

Is subsidiarity a conditio sine qua non for sustainability?

This paper argues that subsidiarity is a condicio sine qua non for sustainability. Through the complexity paradigm, the paper provides a historical reconstruction of both concepts to the end of elucidating their interdependence. The main thesis is that subsidiarity to sustainability is what self-organisation is to emergence. The paper ends with a sketch of future global governance structures based on a subsidiarity where cities take the lead on sustainability.     

资本下乡与新中农争地的社会后果研究

农民自发的土地流转模式催生出一批以耕种从亲朋好友间低价流转的地为生的在村新中农。夫妻俩以劳动力最大限度为界,通过经营适度规模的土地获得体面的村庄生活(新中农)。与此同时,在农村人口大量流出的背景下,这批在村种地农民变成村庄的中坚力量,成为村庄治理中的主体。然而,以政府主导、为吸引资本下乡所进行的土地流转正在摧毁这批中坚力量,还让外出务工村民长期处于失地状态。文章认为,农业政策应该致力于改善农业耕种条件,并守住耕地,保护好进城失败农民的最后退路,而非支持资本下乡打败新中农。     

套管抗挤强度分析及计算

为提高套管挤毁压力预测精度，应用统计方法对213根套管全尺寸挤毁试验数据进行了方差分析，研究了外径不圆度、壁厚不均度、残余应力等因素对套管抗挤强度的影响。分析结果表明，径厚比、屈服强度是套管抗挤强度的主要因素，不圆度、壁厚不均度、残余应力等因素对套管抗挤强度的影响呈随机性分布。利用有限元方法对外径不圆度、壁厚不均度和残余应力的不同位置组合进行了模拟分析。结果表明，数值相同的外径不圆度、壁厚不均度及平均残余应力组合不同时，套管的挤毁压力相差很大。最后提出了一个套管抗挤强度计算公式，计算简单，精度可满足工程要求。     

余华与先锋小说的变化

余华由20世纪80年代的"先锋作家"转变为20世纪的"通俗作家",由创作风格的"冷酷""残忍"转变为"和风细雨".余华这种创作姿态的转变反映了中国先锋小说的解体,这其中既包含着先锋文学自身局限的不可超越性,也包含着世俗诱惑的难以抗拒性,也许,还包含着作家自己可以把握的不断创新的欲望和无法把握的创作心态的衍变.但他关心的仍然是人的生命的存在价值和意义,以余华为代表的中国先锋小说家的转变与解体并不是在新时代中的"溃不成军",而是"胜利大逃亡".     

Risk-Informed Requirements for Design and Assessment of Structures Under Temporary Use

The relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular. There is a need for establishing appropriate target reliability levels for structures under temporary use taking into account specific circumstances such as reduced risk exposure times. This issue is being addressed in this article. Acceptance criteria for building-structure-related risks to persons obtained in prior studies are adapted to the special circumstances of nonpermanent risk exposure. Thereby, the general principle followed is to maintain the same risk levels per time unit as for permanently occupied buildings. The adaptation is based on the statistical annual fatality rate, a life safety risk metric that allows for a consistent comparison of risks across different societal activities and technologies. It is shown that the target reliability indices taking account of the temporary use of buildings might be significantly higher than the values suggested for permanently used structures.     

先秦名实之乱的文化根源

先秦名实之乱的根源在于礼乐文化本身,它内容和形式对立统一的特点已经潜伏了名实分离的可能.礼坏乐崩和名实之乱都是礼乐文化在解体过程中的表现.名与实没有彻底分离,为中国文化留下了一个严重的社会痼疾.     

A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment

A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty.     

企业环境信息披露与股价崩盘风险

基于2009-2019年A股非金融企业数据,检验企业环境信息披露对股价崩盘风险的影响,并进一步地关注所有权性质和公司治理水平的调节作用。实证研究发现,提高环境信息披露质量能够降低企业未来股价崩盘风险,环境信息披露对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用在非国有企业和公司治理质量较高的企业表现得更为显著,表明环境信息披露影响股价崩盘风险存在一定的作用条件。实证结果支持了环境信息披露对经济后果的积极影响,以及加强环境信息披露制度建设的重要性和必要性。