毕业设计教学改革与实践的探索

随着教学改革的深入,提出了除学生不可选择性因素之外,要充分发挥指导教师的主导作用,首先选准选好毕业设计题目,加强计算机在毕业设计中的运用.走设计和实践相结合之路,在几个方面做好、做细毕业设计的改革工作.     

医教结合：实践、争议与问题

目前我国特殊教育学校学生残障程度趋重,残障类型、教康需求日趋多样化。我国在不断的探索中形成符合自身特点的教育和康复的整合模式———医教结合,并在医教结合的实践中取得一定成果。但目前国内不仅对医教结合内涵、过程等方面未达成一致观点,学者们在其他一些问题上也存在争议。医教结合推进过程中,适用对象、学校教师、理论本身、政策制定方面存在的问题,仍需各方共同努力去解决,研究完善医教结合的理论与政策,促进特殊教育医教结合的发展。     

浅谈今后我国高等教育发展的方向和对策

改革开放以后,中国高等教育经历了较大的发展,但与西方发达国家的高等教育相比,还有较大差距.因此,我们可借鉴美国高等教育发展的成功经验,加快改革高等教育体制,发展规模适度、形式多样、层次多样的中国高校,提高高校为经济和社会服务的水平,使我国高等教育体制更具活力和竞争力.     

论道德目的论与道德工具论

道德目的论与道德工具论是两种关于道德性质、功能、作用等的伦理学说和道德价值理论。道德目的论以道德为目的 ,认为道德本身即具有内在价值和目的善 ,道德工具论以道德为某种更高目的的手段 ,认为道德只具有外在价值和手段善。二者各有所长亦各有所短 ,但都未能科学地解决人与道德的关系问题 ,犯了割裂目的与手段的错误。新道德应当超越道德目的论与道德工具论的对立 ,实现道德目的与道德手段的辩证统一。     

水稻恢复系蓉恢902配合力研究

选用蓉恢 90 2等 6个恢复系与珍汕A等 5个不育系组成 6× 5不完全双列杂交试验 ,以测定蓉恢 90 2的产量、穗重、着粒密度、结实率、千粒重的配合力。试验结果 :蓉恢 90 2一般配合力以产量、穗重、着粒密度、结实率表现好 ,其相对效应值分别为 7.4、0 .7、9.4、3.8;千粒重的一般配合力较差 ,相对效应值为 - 7.0 ;特殊配合力以NJ5A/蓉恢 90 2表现最好 ,其产量、穗重、着粒密度、结实率的相对效应值分别为 1 1 .3、1 3.3、8.4、7.3。     

刑事政策与管制刑改革

刑事政策对刑事司法实践具有极强的指导性和影响力。经过近半个世纪的发展沿革,我国形成了内涵特定的“宽严相济”刑事政策。结合倡导非监禁刑的刑罚轻缓化的时代背景看,这种刑事政策给有着社会化、家庭化、人道化等特点的管制刑营造了难得的改革契机。在下一步的修改完善中,不但需要根据“宽严相济”刑事政策要求来设置管制刑,而且还应当在非监禁刑改革中依法适当扩大适用管制刑。     

工学结合的《水泥粉磨设备操作》课程标准开发

通过深入用人单位调研,明确了职业岗位的典型工作任务和职业岗位对人才的能力素质要求,以典型工作任务为载体将课程划分成多个相互联系的学习情境,将专业能力、方法能力和社会能力的培养贯穿于各个学习情境的教学中。     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

略论宋元话本小说词文相生创作模式的成因及功能

宋元话本小说中插入大量词篇,这种词文结合的创作模式具有鲜明的时代特色,契合了当时大众的审美心理需求。这一独特的审美特征形成的背后不仅有着深层的时代背景原因,其具有的独特功能性,还对丰富话本小说的创作起着重要作用。