A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Abstract.  Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce a curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.     

或有事项对企业财务能力影响的分析--兼谈会计中的不确定性

阐述了或有事项引起的财务报表变动 ,建立了一套财务指标 ,分析了或有事项对企业财务能力的影响 ,并指出在不确定性会计处理中应注意的几个问题     

关于高校人才队伍建设的思考

人才是人类社会进步的加速器、催化剂和核心力量。人才是一个国家、一所学校发展的决定因素。人才兴则国运昌，人才兴则高校强。人才队伍具有不同类型、不同层次、不同特色的功能结构，并呈现出不同的特征。在高校加强人才队伍建设，提高全员素质的过程中，注重观念的创新与演进是核心，创建学习型组织是活动方式，深化人事制度改革是根本途径，注重德性的养成是根本要求。     

蒙古族大德咱雅班智达事迹考述

清初,在祖国统一的大业中,各民族的爱国志士都曾为此做出了贡献,蒙古族高僧大德咱雅班智达.南喀嘉措便是在西藏地方归顺清朝中央,实现祖国统一过程中做出过重要贡献的人物之一。鉴于其在历史发展过程中的重要贡献,当时西藏上层以他为首世,建立了“咱雅班智达“转世系统,从此,它成为藏传佛教在蒙古族地区颇具影响的活佛世系之一。     

高校实验室管理与评估

本文阐述了在评估工作的推动下 ,如何加强对实验人员队伍建设、建立和完善各种规章制度的管理 ,并对实验室评估工作做了科学的总结。     

社会认知经典研究述评

社会认知是指个人对他人或自己的心理与行为的感知与判断的过程。从 1 93 0年代开始 ,社会心理学家就已经对此问题开展研究。 1 947年 ,J.S .Bruner在以往研究基础上 ,提出了社会知觉概念 ,并且进行了相关实验 ,开启了现当代社会认知研究的大门。 1 970年代后 ,社会认知研究开始广泛借鉴认知心理学的理论和方法 ,尤其受到信息加工理论的深刻影响 ,开展了大量的实证研究。文章在把握社会认知研究的历史脉络基础上 ,评述几个在社会认知研究发展史中占有重要地位的经典研究。     

What to do with “I Don't Know:” Elicitation in Ethnographic & Survey Interviews

When a researcher enters an interview, she has already construed it as being a standard type of communicative event. This article considers how a researcher's construal of a communicative event as either an ethnographic or survey interview shapes the production of information. Interview standards entail epistemological assumptions that directly inform the type of information sought and produced. I consider this process through a comparison of the elicitation techniques I employed in survey and ethnographic interviews conducted during research in Mexico. I draw on theory in linguistic anthropology on the nature of meaning in language, examining how dialogicality and interaction are essential to understanding the construal of communicative events.     

基于交通量风险的PPP交通项目再融资产品设计

交通PPP项目的投资大、风险高。政府作为发起方,需要为项目提供担保以吸引社会资本方的参与,但过度依赖政府担保意味着：一旦发生数额较大的债务违约将会给财政造成巨大的负担,因此有必要谋求适宜的市场化融资渠道。为了协调PPP项目相关者的利益,本文在项目收益债的基础上嵌入了与项目未来收益挂钩的或有条款,并运用结构化方法中的Merton模型在风险中性情景下对融资产品进行了定价。最后,以某PPP交通项目为例,进行了具体的融资产品设计,计算了相应的产品价格和风险价差,并对某些关键条款进行了敏感性分析,结果表明该产品能够在有效减轻政府担保的基础上降低融资成本。