A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

集中优势发展重庆电子信息产业

在分析重庆市电子信息设备制造业现状、发展的有利与不利因素以及国内外发展态势的基础上对重庆(?)子信息产业的发展提出了九条对策建议。     

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Abstract.  Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce a curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.     

浅谈我国古代文艺作品中的影射技法

影射 ,作为一种文学技巧 ,最先出现在《诗经》 ,日后由于意识形态变化的原因 ,并在儒家文学观的指引下 ,逐渐推广到辞赋、散文、小说、词曲和戏剧所有文学领域 ,表现形式也由单一的比喻象征发展到多种类型 ,形成姿态横生、形式大备、羽翼丰满的艺术手段     

或有事项对企业财务能力影响的分析--兼谈会计中的不确定性

阐述了或有事项引起的财务报表变动 ,建立了一套财务指标 ,分析了或有事项对企业财务能力的影响 ,并指出在不确定性会计处理中应注意的几个问题     

交流电路参数的实用测量法研究

探讨了二端交流电路的R,L,C元件参数的测定,并研究了工频电路的等效电阻、等效电抗的测量方法。     

金属垂直安定面的后向散射分析

采用射线跟踪和等效电流等方法计算金属垂直安定面的后向散射场和后向散射截面积(RCS)。对TM入射和TE入射在不同的入射角下求得数值结果。仔细分析了外形对后向RCS的影响,并提出压缩后向RCS的措施。     

论唐代科举制策试的匡时济俗功能

唐代士人参加科举制策试或私下模拟策试,都直言不讳地批评时弊,提出应对方案。他们的参政议政资格,只要报名科考即可自动获得。皇帝在开科诏令和策试题目中每每自谦德薄才寡,坦言施政失误,国家危难,恳请考生帮助自己。官方对于时政问题从来不规定标准答案,任随考生自主思考,自由表达。这种正视现实的勇气和征集、接受意见的诚恳态度,是唐代统治阶级自强、自信的一种体现。“上下雷同,非国家之福”,是时人共识。在这种背景下,策试才能产生一定的匡时济俗功能。然而,由统治阶级举办的策试,尽管可以揭示某些表层化的社会问题,却无力解决社会顽症;再加上残酷、复杂的政治派别斗争,策试匡时济俗功能的发挥必然受到限制。     

蒙古族大德咱雅班智达事迹考述

清初,在祖国统一的大业中,各民族的爱国志士都曾为此做出了贡献,蒙古族高僧大德咱雅班智达.南喀嘉措便是在西藏地方归顺清朝中央,实现祖国统一过程中做出过重要贡献的人物之一。鉴于其在历史发展过程中的重要贡献,当时西藏上层以他为首世,建立了“咱雅班智达“转世系统,从此,它成为藏传佛教在蒙古族地区颇具影响的活佛世系之一。     

地方院校研究生扩招现状及对策分析

通过分析地方院校研究生扩招所带来的积极影响和消极影响,提出地方院校研究生扩招必须适应社会进步的历史要求,把握社会、经济、文化发展的客观规律;国家和主管部门在制定招生计划时要依据招生单位的培养能力,动态调整招生计划.