关于独立董事制度的一个经济逻辑分析

运用体制转轨和渐进改革的宏观视角、使用制度演进和制度创新的分析方法、结合公司治理结构的发展,对独立董事制度的构建背景、意义、发展途径进行一个比较详尽深入的经济逻辑分析,认为在制度潜力发掘—市场规范发展彼此良性互动的作用机制下,独立董事制度将逐渐成熟壮大,最终形成对原有公司治理机构体系的冲击,促使公司治理结构的不断优化和市场的不断成熟规范化变迁。     

山西省农村人力资源开发现状及对策

农村人力资源开发是在对全体农村人口进行认真分析的基础上 ,确立以农村为主的不同农村人口类群中的质量差别 ,同时利用培训和教育等多种渠道 ,有效地进行人力资源资本投资 ,努力提高农村人口素质 ,以实际行动落实科教兴农的战略构想。本文从农村人力资源的规模及构成 ,文化素质及构成以及农村人口的从业类别三个方面对我省农村人力资源开发现状进行剖析 ;在认清现状的基础上 ,分别从投资规模 ,农村教育体制 ,组织领导 ,制度建设 ,思想观念等五个方面深入分析了造成目前现状的根源 ,并结合我省实际提出相应的对策建议 ,并创新了一套具有操作性的运作模式。     

Sifting the wheat from the chaff—the organization of telephone intake and the selection of social assistance inquirers in Sweden

In Sweden, the initial contact between help-seeking people and a social welfare office normally takes place over the telephone, with designated intake officers handling those aiming to apply for social assistance. Citizens seeking help are here sorted according to various eligibility criteria as well as according to different intake routines. The outcome of the sorting process is that some receive an appointment for a further assessment while others are sent away. This article describes and classifies the degree of selection at seven telephone intakes, discusses relations between the degrees of selection and reasons for selection and distinguishes several selection strategies.     

Toward an integrated Bayesian network approach to measurement error detection and correction

In this article, the quality of data produced by national statistical institutes and by governmental institutions is considered. In particular, the problem of measurement error is analyzed and an integrated Bayesian network decision support system based on non-parametric Bayesian networks is proposed for its detection and correction. Non-parametric Bayesian networks are graphical models expressing dependence structure via bivariate copulas associated to the edges of the graph. The network structure and the misreport probability are estimated using a validation sample. The Bayesian network model is proposed to decide: (i) which records have to be corrected; (ii) the kind and amount of correction to be adopted. The proposed correction procedure is applied to the Banca d’Italia Survey on Household Income and Wealth and, specifically, the bond amounts are analyzed. Finally, the sensitivity of the conditional distribution of the true value random variable given the observed one to different evidence configurations is studied.     

The functional patterns of adolescent mothers leaving foster care: Results from a cluster analysis

Few studies have explored the outcomes of adolescent mothers leaving foster care, especially using person‐oriented methods. The current study employed a cluster analysis to identify unique patterns of functioning among adolescent mothers aged 19 (n = 777). Data from the National Youth in Transition Database and the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System were utilized. Findings revealed five subpopulations characterized by distinct constellations of outcomes at age 19. The largest group (43%) exhibited competent functioning across all the domains studied—its members were connected to school and/or employment and did not experience homelessness, substance abuse referrals, or incarceration during the past 2 years (i.e., “resilient”). A relatively small group (12%) exhibited challenges across all the above‐referenced domains, whereas the remaining groups presented challenges in some domains, but not in others. Follow‐up analyses revealed that adolescent mothers classified as resilient at age 19 had the lowest rates of congregate care placements and the highest rates of nonrelative foster care placements at age 17. Moreover, they had lower placement instability and higher rates of extended foster care as compared with members of the other clusters. Implications for practice, policy, and research are discussed.     

Contribution analysis to analyze the effects of the health impact assessment at the local level: A case of urban revitalization

The health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool used to estimate the potential impact on health of non-health-related proposals prior to implementation. While it is increasingly used in Quebec, Canada, studies have not analyzed its medium-term impacts and potential long-term impacts. We conducted a contribution analysis using in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, as well as documents, observation and images related to HIA in order to analyze its impacts on the revitalization of road infrastructure, parks and green spaces, and residential housing. Our analysis not only reflects on the decision-making process through the adoption and implementation of HIA recommendations, but also on the link between actions implemented in the field and health outcomes.     

Variance estimation based on blocked 3×2 cross-validation in high-dimensional linear regression

In high-dimensional linear regression, the dimension of variables is always greater than the sample size. In this situation, the traditional variance estimation technique based on ordinary least squares constantly exhibits a high bias even under sparsity assumption. One of the major reasons is the high spurious correlation between unobserved realized noise and several predictors. To alleviate this problem, a refitted cross-validation (RCV) method has been proposed in the literature. However, for a complicated model, the RCV exhibits a lower probability that the selected model includes the true model in case of finite samples. This phenomenon may easily result in a large bias of variance estimation. Thus, a model selection method based on the ranks of the frequency of occurrences in six votes from a blocked 3�d7;2 cross-validation is proposed in this study. The proposed method has a considerably larger probability of including the true model in practice than the RCV method. The variance estimation obtained using the model selected by the proposed method also shows a lower bias and a smaller variance. Furthermore, theoretical analysis proves the asymptotic normality property of the proposed variance estimation.     

Vowel harmony redux: Correct sounds,English loan words,and the sociocultural life of a phonological structure in Korean1

This paper examines an ideology of standard pronunciation and spelling of English loan words in South Korea through the lens of Korean vowel harmony. I focus specifically on the alternation between an older Japanese‐style ‘a’[a] and a newer Korean‐style ‘?’[?] for the mapping of mid‐vowels from English to Korean. The opposition between ‘a’ and ‘?’ also figures into the dichotomy of vowel classes between ‘yang’ or ‘light’ vowels and ‘yin’ or ‘dark’ vowels in Korean vowel harmony. This opposition is pervasive in Korean's rich stock of denotationally iconic words (e.g. onomatopoeia), where ablaut between vowel classes produces semantic and pragmatic contrasts. I suggest that this latter structure of phonological opposition has an influence on speakers’ perceptions of vowel difference and associated values in English loan words, despite an overarching ideology of standard pronunciation that is based on assumptions about phonetic fidelity. ? ??? ?? ???? ?? ?? ? ??? ? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ???? ????. ??, ?? ???? ‘?’[a]? ‘?’[?]? ??(mapping)?? ?? ??? ??. ??? ?? ????? ‘?’? ?? ?? ??? ? ?????? ???? ???? ??(正音)?? ?????? ??. ?? ‘?’? ????? ???, ??? ???? ??? ????? ?(音)?? ???? ??. ???, ‘?’/‘?’? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????? ????? ??; ?, ??? ????? ????? ??? ??. ??, ????? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??? ? ? ??. ????, ????? ????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??? ???. [Korean]     

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

Nonparametric control charts based on runs and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics

In this article, we introduce three new distribution-free Shewhart-type control charts that exploit run and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics to detect possible shifts of a monitored process. Exact formulae for the alarm rate, the run length distribution, and the average run length (ARL) are all derived. A key advantage of these charts is that, due to their nonparametric nature, the false alarm rate (FAR) and in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Tables are provided for the implementation of the charts for some typical FAR values. Furthermore, a numerical study carried out reveals that the new charts are quite flexible and efficient in detecting shifts to Lehmann-type out-of-control situations.