A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

经济全球化、区域化与发展中国家的对策

经济全球化与区域化是呈现在人们面前的活生生的现实,它引起了学者和政治家的广泛关注,因为如何认识和对待这个现实,关系到各国的发展前途和命运。本文着重阐述了经济全球化的内涵、动因及效应;经济区域化的进程和发展趋势;经济全球化与区域化的关系和发展中国家应采取的对策。     

国际服务贸易自由化对发展中国家的影响及对策

最近几年 ,国际服务贸易自由化成为经济学家研究的热点问题。国际服务贸易自由化的一个重要特点是在服务贸易领域逐步取消限制 ,实现自由化。面对国际服务贸易自由化的浪潮 ,发展中国家处于较商品贸易更为不利的地位 ,是机遇更是严峻的挑战。就此进行了分析并提山对策建议     

论经济全球化的多重影响

经济全球化是随着世界各国社会生产力发展而产生和不断发展的一种客观趋势。本文分别从经济全球化对世界经济与社会发展、对发达国家和发展中国家的不同影响及其相互关系的系统分析中,提出和论述了经济全球化在正反两方面所形成的多重影响及其后果。     

国外思想政治教育的特色及其启示

国外思想政治教育具有关注度强,坚持“以人为本”的理念,内容的实践性、时代性和丰富多样性表现突出,方式方法上在强调无意识教育的同时,注意无意识教育与有意识教育的结合等。     

Role of informal sector recycling in waste management in developing countries

Many thousands of people in developing country cities depend on recycling materials from waste for their livelihoods. With the focus of the Millennium Development Goals on poverty reduction, and of waste strategies on improving recycling rates, one of the major challenges in solid waste management in developing countries is how best to work with this informal sector to improve their livelihoods, working conditions and efficiency in recycling.The general characteristics of informal recycling are reviewed, highlighting both positive and negative aspects. Despite the health and social problems associated with informal recycling, it provides significant economic benefits that need to be retained. Experience shows that it can be highly counterproductive to establish new formal waste recycling systems without taking into account informal systems that already exist. The preferred option is to integrate the informal sector into waste management planning, building on their practices and experience, while working to improve efficiency and the living and working conditions of those involved. Issues associated with integrating informal recycling into the formal waste management sector are discussed.     

Public Enterprise Reform in Fiji Islands

Reforming the public sector has been on the agenda of nations throughout the world since the late 1970s. Fiji is no exception. It has embarked on reforming its commercial and industrial enterprises since the late 1980s. The government of Fiji has reformed most of its enterprises with an avowed objective of enhancing profitability, productivity, efficiency and accountability. This paper makes an attempt to share some of the experiences of public enterprise reform process in Fiji. It aims to analyze the background, process, contents and impact of the reform and examine the factors impeding the reform program. It highlights that (a) both internal and external factors were responsible for introducing reforms; (b) the reform efforts have not been able to produce desired results; (c) the structural inadequacies in institutions and organizations have created bottlenecks in the reform process; and (d) uncertainty in the political sphere has contributed further to policy shifts.     

中外高等教育管理体制比较研究

比较我国与西方国家高等教育管理体制,权力配置模式存在重大差异。在政府与学校关系中,西方国家为学校本位,我国为政府本位;在学校内行政权力与学术权力关系中,西方国家为学术本位,我国为行政本位。我国高等教育管理体制改革的目标是,从政府本位转变到学校本位,从行政本位转变到学术本位。树立"管理就是服务"的观念是转变成功的关键。     

从中西比较的视角论说中国古代宗教信仰与历史的关系

宗教的起源和发展一直是古史研究的重要课题之一。北京师范大学历史学院的古史研究者对古代的宗教与社会问题进行了长期探索,这里发表的五篇文章分别表达了研究者在这个问题上的见解:刘家和认为,比较研究还应继续做同中察异的工作,就宗教与历史之关系而言,中国的三代与古代希腊、罗马本来各不相同;但不论前者的邦国,还是后者的城邦,都有自己的守护之神,这点又是相同的;可是在此之上,前者还有天或皇天上帝,后者则无,原因之一是由于前者在地上有最高的天下共主,而后者则无。杨共乐认为,敬重神灵,墨守礼仪,以敬神束缚民众,以礼仪统一思想,是罗马早期宗教具有的明显的目的性;敬仰民族神明,宽容外邦神灵,又使罗马的宗教传统具有鲜明的独特性和开放性;早期罗马的宗教传统是多神崇拜但有秩序,宽容外神但有原则,主要表现在新的外神从未渗透到罗马旧有宗教的核心,后者一直保持着主导地位。刘林海指出,基督教最初并非罗马的唯一选择,其优势是在历史过程中逐步确立的;罗马传统宗教自我更新的失败则把基督教推向了国教的地位。蒋重跃对《新约》的道德金规则与《论语》的忠恕思想做了比较研究,认为两者都主张博爱。但《新约》的金规则只有肯定式的表达,因为基督教的博爱来自上帝,上帝是无限的,上帝的爱也要无限地向外推出去;《论语》的忠恕思想则既有肯定式,也有否定式的表达,由于儒家的博爱来自人自身,人是有限的,所以人类之爱既可向外推出去,又要向内加以限制。这是二者最根本的差异。王献华在分析雅各布森的相关作品的基础上认为,对早期两河流域宗教的研究和对早期两河流域社会与文化的历史研究必须是合二为一的学术进程;在早期两河流域宗教研究中,神灵史的路径可以认为是下一阶段的学术方向。     

西方发达国家的就业促进经验及其对中国的启示

近年来 ,随着中国改革开放的深入开展 ,城镇失业率迅速上升。西方发达国家在就业领域 ,都曾经历了失业率上升的发展阶段。为降低失业率 ,各国采取了不尽相同但却切实有效的就业促进措施 ,积累了丰富的就业促进经验。中国也可以借鉴这些就业促进经验 ,以期逐步降低失业率