Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

马克思哲学自由观的新解读

在马克思哲学中,自由是一个极其重要的概念;也是一个长期以来遭到误解的概念。传统的马克思主义哲学教科书只是把自由放到认识论中论述,忽略了马克思哲学自由观所具有的价值内涵和本体论(存在论)意蕴,因而也就不能把握住马克思自由观的实质。     

海德格尔对胡塞尔现象学批判原理的继承与发展--现象学从认识论到存在主义本体论的过渡

海德格尔存在主义哲学的创立标志着胡塞尔现象学发展到一个新阶段。在海德格尔哲学中 ,现象学真正由认识论过渡到存在主义本体论 ,其直观方法所包含的经验与先验的矛盾最终被圆满地解决了。与此同时 ,海德格尔一贯地坚持并发展了胡塞尔所创立的关于理性、科学的批判概念和原则 ,将认识批判原理发展、改造为存在批判原理。     

CELEBRATING HETEROGENEITY?: A survey of female ICT professionals in England

This paper introduces key findings from a large-scale, online survey of women in the ICT industry across England undertaken between October 2004 and October 2005. Placed in a theoretical framework which draws on critical perspectives from within information systems (IS), and the sociology of gender and of technology, the authors examine some of the issues faced by female ICT professionals. The context for this paper is the ongoing under-representation of women in the ICT industry in England, and the difficulties that the industry is having retaining women, particularly at senior levels. Data are presented on the demographic composition of women in the ICT industry in England. In addition the authors focus on their management of domestic and caring responsibilities, including changes in working practices they have experienced as a result of these responsibilities. These data are particularly pertinent given current government and industry debates regarding the 'work-life balance' and 'flexible working' in the ICT industry, partially as a response to the need for a more diverse ICT workforce. Alongside information on the career histories of female ICT professionals, the authors review their perceptions of pay and reward packages, working environments, the skills they hold, and the recognition they may or may not receive in their current posts. They present reports of a 'long-hours' and 'presenteeism' culture in the ICT industry, and the existence of gendered informal networks in ICT. They also examine female ICT professionals' perceptions of the current and future-possible image of the industry. The findings highlight the continued masculinization of ICT work, and some of the difficulties faced by women working in what remain statistically and symbolically male-dominated environments.     

媒介版图与生态意识

倡导媒介的版图与生态意识,是基于当前国内大众传媒迅猛发展的背景,意在强调在共时空状态下,不同类型不同性质的媒介制品,或者不同类型不同定位的媒介机构有机配置与组合,也就是构建一个富有生机的多样性的媒介生态。在很大程度上,媒介是以整体的舍力而非单一的形式对人实施具体的影响,此项倡导的必要性由此可见一斑。媒介的生态与版图意识还可以帮助梳理、调整当前媒介设置与媒介批评中出现的一些新现象新问题,这正是其紧迫性之所在。     

论《统一域名争端解决政策》的若干法律问题

《统一域名争端解决政策》因其时效性、便捷性成为一种国际间广泛接受的庭外域名争端解决机制,同时也为各国的相关立法提供了蓝本。该机制在实践中暴露出一些问题,如政策中的几个关键概念模糊不清,UDRP专家组裁决前后不一致等,为此应当对该政策加以改进。域名争端的根源在于目前的域名注册管理体系与商标的注册管理体系的冲突,要从根本上解决域名争端,必须协调国际域名注册管理体系与国际商标注册管理体系。     

论域名的法律保护

在分析域名的法律特征、法律保护现状的基础上，提出了域名法律保护的三种途径；承认域名权作为民事利益受法律保护的基础保护；肯定域名在一定条件下可以注册为商标的强化保护；对驰名域名提供的特殊法律保护。     

趣味有争辩--关于审美趣味的本体论阐释

在以精神生产为主导性生产方式的消费文明中,由于趣味问题已经成为一种和人自身再生产关系最为密切的本体论问题,因此它不可能被冷漠地置之度外;生活中单个人的“吃萝卜”还是“吃白菜”是无可厚非的,但那个在深层决定着人们“如何吃”的语法结构本身无疑是需要辩论的;如果说在古典美学中审美趣味的本体内涵主要是一种由想象力带来的心灵解放作用,那么在后现代的精神再生产中,由于它特别地利用了“反对象化”与“反主体化”这种纯粹欲望与审美趣味表层结构上的相似性,彻底解构了审美趣味固有的带有解放性质的本体论内涵,并最终直接威胁到人自身精神再生产的现实可能性,因而对它的剖析与批判也就具有了重要的现实意义。     

论古希腊埃利亚派存在学说的发生

埃利亚派哲学是古希腊存在学说的开创者 ,是对当时自然哲学的一个反动。他们关注的不是为感性事物找到它们共同的“始基” ,而是首先给宇宙整体定性 ,“始基”学说作为希腊哲学的核心问题被扬弃了 ,下降为一个次要的问题。希腊哲学在埃利亚派这里首次跃升到了一个思辨的反思层次 ,一个单凭理性进行抽象概念的论证推理的层次。这种反思使人类理性首次在自然对象上受到了一种“之后”的训练 ,为后来的形而上学做了某种准备