考虑属性关联的两阶段获胜者确定模型

研究了多属性逆向拍卖的获胜者确定问题。考虑属性之间的两两关联，以定义在2-可加模糊测度上的Choquet积分表达拍卖人的偏好，其中模糊测度的值由拍卖人提供的偏好信息推测得出。由于一般情况下与偏好信息一致的模糊测度取值并不唯一，考虑所有一致的评分函数提出了两阶段获胜者确定方法。首先采用线性规划挑选出在任意评分函数下可能获胜的报价，再通过混合整数规划确定一个与所有一致的评分函数的评价结果最为接近的报价排序，以得分最高者为稳健获胜报价。仿真实验表明，大量的报价为不可能获胜报价，说明了在第一阶段进行筛选的必要性。与现有方法的比较表明了该方法的有效性，且在拍卖轮数较大、报价数目较多时，该方法在计算效率上更有优势。     

加拿大高等教育的特色与启示

加拿大高等教育的特点主要体现在管理体制和教育教学两个方面,包括:联邦政府不设教育部;分为大学和学院两个系统;多样化的联合办学模式;完全学分制;宽口径厚基础的课程体系;启发式的教学模式,等等.加拿大高等教育给予我们的启示有:树立以人为本的办学理念,实施完全学分制;理性思考学校定位,开展多渠道合作办学;整体优化培养方案,实施启发式教学方法;建立科学的高校内部评价体系,等等.     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

基于知识的客户关系研究

本文认为知识是流动的 ,而且它会超越组织边界 ,使企业与客户之间形成知识互动的合作伙伴关系。全文从知识和关系紧紧联系在一起 ,构成了可持续竞争优势的唯一源泉和知识向客户转移 ,即知识向客户流动的结果 ,使客户更加知识化并产生增值 ,其本身又会导致更深层的客户关系 ,而开发客户关系又提高了知识的双向转移等方面进行了论述。得出结论 :开发客户关系最终与知识共享是难以分离的     

Decision-making for paired comparison using the extended amended Davidson model

For decision purpose, one of the commonly used statistical applications is the comparison of two or more objects or characteristics. Sometimes, it is not possible to compare the objects at a time or when the number of objects under study is large and the differences between the objects become small, then a useful way is to compare them in pairwise manner. Because of its practical nature, the fields in which paired comparison techniques are being used are numerous. Many Bayesian statisticians have focused their attention on the practical and usable paired comparison technique and have successfully performed the Bayesian study of many of the paired comparison models. In the current study, analysis of the amended Davidson model (ADM) which has been extended after incorporating the order effect parameter is narrated. For this intention, both the informative and non informative priors are used. The said model is studied for the case of four treatments which are compared pairwise.     

Beliefs underlying stress reduction and depression help-seeking among college students: An elicitation study

Objective: This study illustrates how a theory-based approach can identify college students’ beliefs about stress reduction activities and help-seeking for depression. These beliefs are the basis for intervention design. Participants: A sample of 53 undergraduate students at a public university in the Midwest participated in this research during March 2016. Methods: An open-ended belief elicitation survey was administered online. Beliefs were identified through qualitative thematic analyses. Results: Exercise was students’ most preferred stress reduction activity. Beliefs about exercise emphasized physical benefits yet also not having time for exercise. Beliefs about help-seeking for depression emphasized treatment efficacy, support from others, stigma, and time constraints. Conclusions: Whereas beliefs about positive outcomes inform educational and motivational messages, beliefs about time constraints underscore the need to also consider structural factors that can help students find time to attend to their well-being.     

Central tendency bias in belief elicitation

We conduct an experiment in which subjects participate in a first-price auction against an automaton that bids randomly in a given range. The subjects first place a bid in the auction. They are then given an incentivized elicitation of their beliefs of the opponent’s bid. Despite having been told that the bid of the opponent is drawn from a uniform distribution, we find that a majority of subjects report beliefs that have a peak in the interior of the range. This result is robust across seven different experimental treatments. While not expected at the outset, these single-peaked beliefs have precedence in the experimental psychology judgments literature. Our results suggest that an elicitation of probability beliefs can result in responses that are more concentrated than the objectively known or induced truth. We provide indicative evidence that such individual belief reports can be rationalized by well-defined subjective beliefs that differ from the objective truth. Our findings offer an explanation for the conservatism and overprecision biases in Bayesian updating. Finally, our findings suggest that probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events might have less variance than the actual events.     

The generalized two-sided power distribution

The generalized standard two-sided power (GTSP) distribution was mentioned only in passing by Kotz and van Dorp Beyond Beta, Other Continuous Families of Distributions with Bounded Support and Applications, World Scientific Press, Singapore, 2004. In this paper, we shall further investigate this three-parameter distribution by presenting some novel properties and use its more general form to contrast the chronology of developments of various authors on the two-parameter TSP distribution since its initial introduction. GTSP distributions allow for J-shaped forms of its pdf, whereas TSP distributions are limited to U-shaped and unimodal forms. Hence, GTSP distributions possess the same three distributional shapes as the classical beta distributions. A novel method and algorithm for the indirect elicitation of the two-power parameters of the GTSP distribution is developed. We present a Project Evaluation Review Technique example that utilizes this algorithm and demonstrates the benefit of separate powers for the two branches of activity GTSP distributions for project completion time uncertainty estimation.     

Estimating utility functions using generalized maximum entropy

This paper estimates von Neumann and Morgenstern utility functions using the generalized maximum entropy (GME), applied to data obtained by utility elicitation methods. Given the statistical advantages of this approach, we provide a comparison of the performance of the GME estimator with ordinary least square (OLS) in a real data small sample setup. The results confirm the ones obtained for small samples through Monte Carlo simulations. The difference between the two estimators is small and it decreases as the width of the parameter support vector increases. Moreover, the GME estimator is more precise than the OLS one. Overall, the results suggest that GME is an interesting alternative to OLS in the estimation of utility functions when data are generated by utility elicitation methods.     

Conflicting contexts: Midwives’ interpretation of childbirth through photo elicitation

IntroductionThis study seeks to explore midwives’ perceptions about childbirth and in particular their beliefs about normality and risk. In the current climate of increasing interventions during labour, it is important to understand the thought processes that impact on midwifery care in order to examine whether these beliefs influence midwifery clinical decision-making.Method12 Midwives who worked in a variety of metropolitan hospitals in Sydney, Australia were interviewed about how they care for women during labour. The study utilised an inductive qualitative design using photo elicitation during the interview process.ResultsSix themes emerged from the data that clearly indicated midwives felt challenged by working in a system dominated by an obstetric model of care that undermined midwifery autonomy in maintaining normal birth. These themes were: desiring normal, scanning the environment, constructing the context, navigating the way, relinquishing desire and reflecting on reality. Most midwives felt they were unable to practice in the manner they were philosophically aligned to, that is, promoting normal birth, as the medical model restricted their practice.DiscussionThe polarised views of childbirth held by midwives and obstetricians do little to enhance normal birth outcomes. Midwives in this study expressed frustration that they were unable to practice midwifery in a way that reflected their belief in normal birth. This, they cite is a result of the oppressive obstetric model prevalent in maternity care facilities in Sydney and the over use of technological interventions during childbirth.