Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

People and their waste in an emergency context: The case of Monrovia, Liberia

Liberia has gone through civil crisis for over a decade which has resulted in the destruction of infrastructure and disruption of basic services delivery particularly in Monrovia, the capital city. Most of the 1.3 million people living in Monrovia are without adequate environmental sanitation and waste management services which situation poses a serious health risk to the residents. The current waste management service coverage is less than 20% and disposal is by indiscriminate open dumping. In 2003, there were series of outbreaks of cholera epidemics in the city during which time a total of 26,651 cases were reported with many dying.The waste management plan was initiated as an exit strategy of UNICEF following an intervention response programme to assist the Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) whose capacity in this area had been crippled as a result of years of war, through the provision of support in solid waste collection and disposal.The objectives of the plan were to:

(a) Improve waste management services delivery in the city.

(b) Strengthen the ability of the MCC to plan and manage the waste services delivery.

(c) Enhance cooperation of service beneficiaries through comprehensive and effective health education and service promotional campaign.

(d) Enhance revenue generation and community participation through the promotion of private sector and CBOs/NGOs active involvement in the waste management service delivery.

The general methodology adopted for the assignment entailed the following:Desk study and review of existing reports on Water and Environmental Sanitation (WES) in Monrovia and other relevant literature, consultation with stakeholders, site visits and participatory planning which aimed at soliciting the opinions of the various stakeholders involved with the respective components to capture their aspirations and experiences. It also covered collection and analysis of available information and data to facilitate the plan preparation and facilities design.The three-phased strategy (short, medium and long term) covering a period of 10 years (August 2004–December 2014), recommended a combination of technical options for collection based on the pursuit of staged development to allow for the adoption of realistically attainable standards within a framework of continuous and systematic improvements as economic conditions improved and new knowledge gained through practice. The plan sought to blend the capacity within the City Corporation with that of the private sector and NGOs/CBOs to respond to the diverse service demands of the city taking into consideration housing and infrastructural conditions, service costs and cost recovery to ensure sustainability. It also identified sources of financing and allocated financing responsibilities to facilitate effective plan implementation.     

中美国家应急管理机制比较研究

针对学术界在国家应急管理机制研究方面缺乏全面比较分析的问题,文章运用比较分析方法研究了中美两国国家应急管理机制在组织机构、行动程序与法律保障三个方面的差异。通过研究提出,中国国家应急管理机制应在“设立应急管理协调机构”、“提高应急管理行动的计划性”、“制定应急管理纲领性法律”三个方面加以改进的建议。     

市场调查:图书选题计划制定的关键

加强市场调查对提高图书选题策划的预测准确性作用极大。市场导向和市场反馈,将直接有助于出版机构了解市场的饱和点、空白点、热点、增长点和萎缩点,正确判断图书市场的现状和未来走势,进而在制订选题计划时更为合理地进行因势利导和科学决策。     

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.     

论突发环境事件的几个理论问题

突发环境事件在我国频频发生,且有愈演愈烈之趋势。应对突发环境事件,我们要建立完善的突发环境事件应急机制,力图在危机发生之虞,能有效的动员各类社会资源,防患于未然,努力将突发环境事件带来的危害降至最低。因此,文章将着重讨论突发环境事件的概念、突发环境事件应急机制的属性、应急机制等几个问题。     

我国公共危机管理法制现状及完善

把突发事件处理机制纳入法制轨道是建立有效的危机管理机制的关键环节。从我国公共危机管理法制化建设的现状出发,首先简要阐述了加强公共危机管理法制化建设的必要性,然后进一步分析了目前中国公共危机管理法制建设中存在的优势及缺陷,并针对这些缺陷,提出了一些完善措施。     

基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM(1,1)模型及其应用研究

本文分析了传统FAGM（1,1）模型建模过程中存在的误差,提出了一种基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM（1,1）模型。首先,基于分数阶累加生成算子和分数阶累减生成算子建立分数阶FAGM（1,1）模型。其次,利用Simpson积分公式对FAGM（1,1）模型的背景值进行改进,建立SFAGM（1,1）模型。进一步,应用遗传算法确定SFAGM（1,1）模型的最优阶数以提高模型的预测精度。最后,以中国人均GDP为例,对比分析GM（1,1）模型、Simpson改进的GM（1,1）模型（SGM（1,1））、FAGM（1,1）模型、SFAGM（1,1）模型的模拟结果,并对"十三五"时期的人均GDP进行预测,其结果表明SFAGM（1,1）模型比GM（1,1）、SGM（1,1）、FAGM（1,1）在人均GDP的预测方面有更高的精度,"十三五"期间人均GDP年平均增长率为10.64%,到2020年达到83146.97元,是2010年人均GDP的2.69倍,以2010年的人均GDP为基准,到2020年将能够实现翻一番的目标。     

关于推进我国由核大国向核强国迈进的探讨与思考

论文阐述了推进我国核大国向核强国迈进的背景、规划、核战略产业、军民融合海陆空领域的发展。首先题解我国核大国、强国的顶层设计、国外背景、10大产业的大国强国方向;进而阐明了我国已步入核电大国行列,在役在建设核电站进入世界第三位,但核电在国际国内能源、电力中比重很小,迈向核电强国任务艰巨;进而阐明举全国之力做强我国核工业,建设更先进的核潜艇,研发中国战略重器核航空母舰;建立强大有后处理的核燃料循环,打造“中国造”华龙1号,全产业链走出去;实施一批重大工程建设,推动核科技进步,继续研发、部署小堆项目建设;抓紧以核电代煤、治霾、减碳、供热的开发工作;加大核科技在农学、医学、科研、军工的应用。认真贯彻《核安全法》确保核工业安全发展,健全完善核应急体系,推动核安保能力提升,不断完善核安全结构和核安全系统的顶层设计,保障核工业安全万无一失。抓好军民深度融合国家战略发展,军民对接,使命承担,发展军民融合产业。     

核设施运营单位的核应急能力评估指标体系构建

核设施运营单位的核应急能力评价是核设施运营单位风险评估及核应急管理的重要内容,构建核设施运营单位的核应急能力评价体系可以提升核设施运营单位的核应急响应能力和管理能力。在对某4个核设施运营单位的20位专家进行两轮咨询的基础上,结合已有国内外研究成果,并采用临界值法对评价指标进行筛选,建立了一个包含3项一级指标,13项二级指标,38项三级指标的核设施运营单位核应急能力评价指标体系。指标体系综合考虑了影响核设施运营单位的核应急能力的主要因素,涵盖了核设施运营单位的核应急工作的各个方面,且各指标之间相对独立,操作方便,实施起来简单易行,可协助发现核设施营运单位在应急响应能力方面存在的问题,对核设施运营单位的核应急能力建设起到积极的促进作用。