Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.     

国外教师期望效应研究进展与当代教育启示

教师期望效应是教师对学生的期望在学生的未来发展中得到证实的现象,它反映了教师对学生的态度会影响学生发展的方向和程度,开展该现象的研究对教师观念的改变和学生的健康发展均有重要意义。对教师期望效应的种类、理论模型及国外的相关研究进行了介绍,探讨了其对教育现实的一些重要启示。     

新时期仍需坚持“效率优先,兼顾公平“的原则

改革开放以来 ,我国在分配制度上一直坚持“效率优先 ,兼顾公平”的原则 ,坚持这一原则 ,是社会主义本质的要求 ,是符合我国社会主义初级阶段国情的。世纪之初 ,在贯彻实施“十五”计划的新时期 ,我们仍需继续坚持这一分配原则。     

Decision analysis for practical negotiation application

The family of decision analysis techniques can be applied effectively to support practical negotiators in international settings. These techniques are most appropriate in support of the prenegotiation phase, when parties are diagnosing the situation, assessing their own plans and strategies, and evaluating likely reactions and outcomes. The paper identifies how these approaches have and can be used to assist negotiation practitioners, offers a rationale for the application of decision analytic approaches in terms of the particular analytical requirements of the prenegotiation period, suggests how these process-oriented tools can be integrated with substantive tools, and discusses ways in which these tools can be presented and delivered to practitioners in a practical and confidence-building manner.     

关注公众预期提高货币供应量对经济的作用

对货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系以及货币供应机制进行了分析，据此得出结论：货币供应量在短期内可影响一国经济，所以控制货币供应量是调节经济的手段之一。但是由于影响货币供应量的因素不易控制和预测，使得货币供应量的控制和对经济的调节变得困难。所以应考虑引入预期指标来提高货币供应量调节经济的效果。     

论我国农业信贷资金的市场化效用

从农业生产主体的比较利益与经营风险分析入手，对农业市场化过程中信贷资金效用进行了深入研究，并针对我国农业经济发展的现状，提出了有关我国农业信贷资金体系建设以及农业生产资源配置等项工作的若干意见和建议。     

从结构主义和行为主义看对公用企业的反垄断规制

由于公用企业的特殊性，反垄断法一直对公用企业不适用。但是，随着理论和实践的发展，公用企业受反垄断法的豁免已受到质疑。认为对公用企业无需得到反垄断的豁免，主张依据行为主义理论来对公用企业实行反垄断规制。     

Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.