扩招后广东高等教育发展的策略研究

文章分析了 1997年到 2 0 0 1年广东高等教育的相关数据 ,认为广东高等教育主要通过内涵式发展来扩大其教育规模 ,扩招后已经达到其现有教育条件的承载极限。今后应放缓发展速度 ,转变高等教育发展方式 ,由内涵式发展为主转为重视外延式发展 ,以达到高等教育的可持续发展     

农村居民看病难、看病贵原因实证分析

利用扩展的线性支出系统模型(ELES),采用最小二乘法估计计算了我国农村居民的短期医疗服务需求价格弹性。研究结果表明:农村居民的短期医疗服务需求价格缺乏弹性。由于农村居民的短期医疗服务需求价格缺乏弹性,加上我国目前医疗体制存在的以药养医和医疗机构的逐利行为以及医疗市场缺乏有效的监管等问题,导致农村居民看病难、看病贵。解决这个问题,需要国家增加对卫生领域的投入,降低农民看病时自费的比例,增强卫生市场的竞争性,适当使医疗卫生资源向农村地区倾斜,并逐渐把医疗机构办成非盈利机构。     

浅谈英语教学的改革与创新

通过对英语教学现状的分析 ,对英语教学的改革与创新做了初步的探讨 ,说明了教学改革势在必行 ,并提出了今后教学改革的思路。     

基于规则的客户关系管理系统建模方法

客户关系管理系统(CRM)是提高企业核心竞争力的有力武器。以工作流和过程建模技术为基础,研究CRM系统的建模,是CRM系统的建立和顺畅运行的关键。因此,将动态过程建模的思想引入CRM系统的建模过程中,按照逐层分解的建模方式来简化系统的复杂性,并采用事件驱动的、基于扩展业务规则的方法进行CRM系统的过程建模和系统性能评价,是针对CRM系统进行建模的有效手段。通过以上方法,可以建立出全面支持CRM系统运行、监控、仿真和性能评价的过程模型。根据该方法建立的CRM系统的模型经过仿真实验和企业实际应用,证明具有良好的应用效果。     

二维GPSJ分布类及其在保险中的应用

本文给出的二维GPSJ分布类(即GPSJ2)在保险领域应用范围较广,如由机动车辆保险由财产损失索赔次数和人身伤亡索赔次数所组成的模型、超额再保险中的由自留保单数和分出报单数所组成的二维模型等。本文在GPSJ1类基础上研究二维GPSJ类,本文给出了此分布类的定义、背景意义、概率计算的递推公式,同时还对各参数的最大似然估计值的求解过程进行了分析。本文最后将这一模型应用于一组机动车辆赔付次数数据,考虑了由财产损失索赔次数、人身伤亡索赔次数组成的二维模型,拟合效果令人满意。     

How biology became social,and what it means for social theory

In this paper I first offer a systematic outline of a series of conceptual novelties in the life‐sciences that have favoured, over the last three decades, the emergence of a more social view of biology. I focus in particular on three areas of investigation: (1) technical changes in evolutionary literature that have provoked a rethinking of the possibility of altruism, morality and prosocial behaviours in evolution; (2) changes in neuroscience, from an understanding of the brain as an isolated data processor to the ultrasocial and multiply connected social brain of contemporary neuroscience; and (3) changes in molecular biology, from the view of the gene as an autonomous master of development to the ‘reactive genome’ of the new emerging field of molecular epigenetics. In the second section I reflect on the possible implications for the social sciences of this novel biosocial terrain and argue that the postgenomic language of extended epigenetic inheritance and blurring of the nature/nurture boundaries will be as provocative for neo‐Darwinism as it is for the social sciences as we have known them. Signs of a new biosocial language are emerging in several social‐science disciplines and this may represent an exciting theoretical novelty for twenty‐first social theory.     

Cox regression of clustered event times with covariates missing not at random

Motivated by a recent tuberculosis (TB) study, this paper is concerned with covariates missing not at random (MNAR) and models the potential intracluster correlation by a frailty. We consider the regression analysis of right‐censored event times from clustered subjects under a Cox proportional hazards frailty model and present the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator (SPMLE) of the model parameters. An easy‐to‐implement pseudo‐SPMLE is then proposed to accommodate more realistic situations using readily available supplementary information on the missing covariates. Algorithms are provided to compute the estimators and their consistent variance estimators. We demonstrate that both the SPMLE and the pseudo‐SPMLE are consistent and asymptotically normal by the arguments based on the theory of modern empirical processes. The proposed approach is examined numerically via simulation and illustrated with an analysis of the motivating TB study data.     

浅谈更敦群培的翻译思想

更敦群培对翻译问题作出了一系列精湛论述,这些译论对藏族翻译界,乃至我国翻译界都产生了极其深远的影响.他的翻译思想主要表现在内篇和外篇两个层面上.内篇的译论包括翻译的标准、思维方式、方法及风格等;外篇的译论包括翻译的目的、功能,翻译批评的原则等.     

航位推算系统非线性过程处理新方法研究

针对航位推算系统中利用扩展Kalman滤波方法解决非线性问题在算法复杂性上的缺陷和精度上的不稳定性,该文从数据预先处理的角度出发,合理规避线性化过程,提出一种充分利用现成Kalman滤波公式的方法,即数据进入滤波器之前就预先进行处理,获得每一组量测值,按照极坐标-笛卡儿坐标的转换方式转为相应的位置信息,再按照标准的Kalman滤波公式构建滤波器,进行状态的最优估计。计算机仿真结果证明该算法的有效性。     

Overdispersed negative binomial regression models

Overdispersion is a common phenomenon in actual data sets. It is important to have methods of dealing with extra variation in regression situations. This article develops tests for extra-negative binomial variation and gives some numerical methods to deal with it. Simulations show power comparisons between some of the overdispersion tests discussed. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the methods.