川东北地区须家河组二段储层差异性分析

随着勘探程度的深入，为了扩大四川盆地天然气勘探领域、寻找新的勘探接替区，四川盆地的勘探区域由盆内逐渐向盆缘延伸。在这种背景下，川东北地区须家河组二段相继取得新的勘探成果，但在勘探开发过程中逐渐暴露了诸如区块之间气井产能差异大，储层的碎屑组分、结构及厚度、物性、孔隙结构差异明显等问题，制约了勘探开发的步伐。针对上述问题，根据岩芯观察描述、分析化验资料及测井解释成果，从沉积、成岩方面入手，对比剖析了川东北龙岗和营山地区须二段储层特征的差异性及其成因，认为远离物源区和高能水体的反复淘洗是造成储层差异性的首要因素，强烈的压实作用和多期石英加大对储层差异性起关键作用，自生绿泥石衬边胶结和长石选择性溶蚀最终决定了储层差异性。从而解释了气藏勘探开发中遇到的诸多问题，对有效指导该区的下一步勘探开发工作具有重要意义。     

Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions

Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed‐form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling‐based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed‐form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks’s method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models.     

论间接故意与过于自信的过失 --理论与实际的矛盾

间接故意与过于自信的过失是犯罪构成中主观方面最容易混淆的两种罪过,本文对这两种罪过进行了系统的比较,并对两者的实际操作中所体现的矛盾进行了分析,最后文章对矛盾提出了解决的方案。     

呼市自备井生活供水系统水质污染及防治对策

根据对代表性自备井供水单位的水质抽样化验结果及自来水公司供水系统的水质监测数据，对比分析了呼和浩特市自备井生活供水系统的水质污染现状和主要原因，提出了相应的防治对策。     

Robustness of a Class of Partial Diallel Cross Designs to the Unavailability of a Complete Block of Observations

Complete and partial diallel cross designs are examined as to their construction and robustness against the loss of a block of observations. A simple generalized inverse is found for the information matrix of the line effects, which allows evaluation of expressions for the variances of the line-effect differences with and without the missing block. A-efficiencies, based on average variances of the elementary contrasts of the line-effects, suggest that these designs are fairly robust. The loss of efficiency is generally less than 10%, but it is shown that specific comparisons might suffer a loss of efficiency of as much as 40%.     

“方块布依字”及其在布依族宗教典籍传承过程中的作用

“方块布依字”是布依族民间流传的一种仿汉字的记音符号 ,主要通行于宗教职业者群体。布依族宗教经文手抄本中的用字和造字方法主要有四种 ,或用与布依语相同或相近的音来记录该语音 ,或根据布依语词义、用汉语方块字的字符重新造字 ,或用与布依语同义的词来记录 ,或直接用汉字本身来记录。“方块布依字”在布依族宗教典籍及传统文化的传承过程中具有重要的作用。     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

论缔约过失责任制度——兼评合同自由与合同正义

缔约过失责任制度的产生与发展是 19世纪下半叶尤其是 2 0世纪以来合同法走向现代化的重要标志之一。缔约过失责任制度的价值论基础 ,就在于诚实信用原则所体现的正义价值与合同自由原则所体现的自由价值构成相倚的两极 ,产生相互亲和的张力。加强对我国缔约过失责任制度的深入研究 ,评析其得失 ,有助于进一步完善我国缔约过失责任制度     

中西典型思维方式与汉英文字音形意关联

文章指出文字与民族思维方式跨文化研究中的不足 ,扼要分析了潜在的成因 ,着重探讨比较了中西民族典型思维 (西方二元分析思维与汉民族整体思维 )在西方字母文字 (以英文为例 )与汉字音、形两大物质特性与意义概念结合上的反映 ,认为正确对待文字与思维之间的客观关联 ,不仅能从新的角度审视文字功能 ,而且有利于我们从中认识和挖掘各民族历史文化的深厚积淀 ,促进跨文化交流的全面开展     

水库地区路基的防护研究

当水库蓄水及运行过程中产生的库岸再造危及库区公路安全时，应对库岸或路基进行防护加固，在研究三峡、水口等水库塌岸历史、现状及预测的基础上，分析了岩质、土质和岩土混合岸坡的破坏方式、库岸再造类型，认为路基或库岸防护设计应遵循滑坡与塌岸综合治理、库岸防治与开发利用相结合、分时期分段落分水位区防护等原则，详细阐述了在不同库岸地质结构及库岸再造类型中采用的防护措施，研究了砌石坡式防护、防护林带、格构锚固、挡土墙、抗滑桩、喷锚等工程防护结构类型。